Texas Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Justin Leonard to win 9/1 @ Moneyplays or GoTo Casino
Top-ranked in current form, course form and course compatibility, he would have been an automatic choice at 7/1 and higher. The only concerns are playing in Europe the week before and the distractions of the Ryder Cup after his memorable performance at Brookline. With the Mount Juliet course playing very easy and not at all like previous visits for the British Open, it should not be too much of a factor. If he can get a fast start on Thursday before the action at The Belfry, he looks to have a very good chance of the three-peat.

John Huston to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Not a winner last week when well-fancied to take the Tampa Bay Classic, but he is double those odds for this event and he did finish a credible 13th. The field is just as thin this week and on his favoured Bermuda greens, he should add yet another top-10 finish in the Lone Star State.

Loren Roberts to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365 (available generally)
Events in Texas strongly favour course specialists and Roberts is one of those. Three top-10 finishes in his last six visits suggest that putting ability on the large Bermuda greens is much more important than length off the tee and he has a good record in all the Texan events with top-10 finishes in Houston Open and Byron Nelson Classic in the last two years and a victory in the Byron Nelson Classic in 1999. Can't see him winning this week, but he has finished 2nd twice this season already and he could go close this week.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Fred Funk to beat Rich Beem -111 @ Centrebet
Just think the Beem bubble may have burst and winning the PGA Championship has finally caught up with him. He missed the cut in the German Masters and finished 49th of 65 in the American Express Championship. Funk has finished in the top-30 in two of his last three Texas Opens and in six of his last ten starts in Texas; the respective figures for Beem are one and two.

Joel Edwards to beat Steve Elkington -118 @ Centrebet
He may have a good record in this event - two top-10 finishes in three starts - but his overall record in Texas is not impressive and his form since losing the playoff for the British Open is even worse: mc, 48th, 68th (of 77), mc. He may be a Texas resident, but he looks very opposable this week. This is certainly the case with Edwards who has a 3-0 head-to-head lead over Elk in the last three months, a 10-2 lead in the last twelve months and has finished in the top-20 in the last two Texas Opens.

Bob Estes to beat Steve Elkington -135 @ Intertops [2 units]
Side-stepped Estes for the outrights given concerns over playing in Ireland last week, but he can certainly finish mid-table here and beat Elk. He has secured top-10 finishes in his last two events and in last year's event, so is justifiably one of the favourites in this field.

Tom Lehman to beat J.J. Henry +100 @ Sportingbet or Sporting Odds
Will bite at these odds. Henry should make the cut, but I can't see a repeat of last year's runners-up spot. Lehman secured three top-10 finishes from five starts in June-July and has finished put in some decent performances in three high quality events. When Lehman and Henry have played in the same tournament, Lehman has prospered 2-0 in the last three months and 11-2 in the last twelve.

Loren Roberts to beat J.J. Henry -110 @ Intertops
Also siding with outright pick, Loren Roberts, to beat Henry. A fifth top-15 finish in the seven visits will be easily enough to beat Henry.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-1-0; +4.00 units

Funk/Beem WON by 17
Edwards/Elkington WON by 6
Estes/Elkington WON by 5
Lehman/Henry LOST by 5 (at the cut)
Roberts/Henry WON by 12

Outrights: 1-2; +23.00 units

Leonard mc
Huston 18th
Roberts 1st

Wow! What a week! Great fun with the Ryder Cup and the best PGA Tour event of the season! Leonard and Lehman disappointed by missing the cut - Lehman triple-bogeyed his penultimate hole to oblige - but convincing wins in the other matchups and particularly in the outrights. Huston looked like he might secure a top-5 finish, but it was a very impressive performance by Roberts who was overtaken several times over the weekend and responded each time. Some way to go on the matchups, but it means the outrights on this Tour are in profit for the first time since the opening event of this season!