AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Outright play (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BlueSq
Impressive in Hawaii as ever and unlucky to finish one shot out of a place finish as a selection, he should contend again this week. He has good course form with two top-5 finishes in the last five years and his suitability for the pro-am format is also displayed by his record in the Invensys Classic which he has won three times. Don't expect this price to be bettered, so getting on early.

Adding ...

Outright play (1 unit):

Jerry Kelly to win 25/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Missed the 30/1 that was available, but this still an attractive price for a player who has finished in the top-10 twice in the last three years and comes into the event in good form - all thirteen rounds this year have been under par. Does possess the patience and good humour to cope with the amateurs every round, so should be a contender again this week. 22/1 is widely available.

Adding ...

Outright play (1 unit):

Davis Love to win 16/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power, Bet365, BetInternet and BlueSq
Not finding much value in the longer odds players this week as the weather forecast predicts good weather and there has been no rain in the area for the past two weeks. For an event blighted by weather disruptions, it may not be the customary longshot winning this week. Siding with a player who won two years ago when there was also no weather factor and does play better in warmer conditions. With a good record when paired with the amateurs and a decent showing in his first start of the year, he could certainly finish higher than his 12th place finish last week. If not, then hopefully he will miss the cut and so the play will be refunded via Paddy Power's generous promotion.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Paul Azinger to beat Carl Pettersson -118 @ Expekt [2 units]
Azinger lost his game around the Players Championship last year and never like a Ryder Cup player despite a top-10 finish in the Buick Open. He even missed the cut by 11 shots last week. But there are some reasons for optimism this week. He closed with a 66 last week and his record in this event is very good, plus he won the title in 1991. Should make the cut, which should be enough to beat Pettersson who also lost his game after Spring last year. He was struggling to make cuts at the end of 2002 and it was quite a surprise that he came through the PGA Tour Q-School. This is his first start in this event and in this format and he just looks one to oppose for the time being.

Per-Ulrik Johansson to beat Ty Tryon -118 @ Expekt
Tryon is another who will be opposed until good reason is shown not to. He has missed both his cuts this year and seven of his last ten. With no course form either, he is easily opposed with Johansson who played here last year and but for a closing 74 last week which meant he missed the cut by a single shot, he would have made two cuts out of three this year.

Rocco Mediate to beat Pat Perez +100 @ BlueSq
Did consider Mediate for the outrights - he won this title in 1999 - so will gladly side with him at these odds. Now free of back trouble, he has shot all eight rounds under par this season (seven of them in the 60s) with the highlight being a runners-up spot in the Mercedes Championships. There is no doubting Perez's form after he shot 61 in round two last week, but it was tainted by a failure to convert 10 birdies in his opening 11 holes into a sub-60 round and his form was disappointing thereafter. There is also the spectre of his final hole collapse last year when poised to win this event. In interviews, he has admitted that he is sick of constantly answering questions about it and he will be just glad when this week is over. Given his temperament and that interview, he looks unlikely to repeat last season's efforts and Rocco's 11-2-0 h2h record over the past year is more than enough reason to back him at evens.

Adding (1 unit):

K.J. Choi to beat Matt Gogel -111 @ BetandWin
Looking to oppose Gogel who has struggled to make the cut since winning this title and has finished in the top-30 just four times in the past year (26 starts). Defending for the first time, this should be pressure that he will find too overbearing. Choi cannot boast the same record in this event, but his form in the last five months have been excellent and he is the far better player.

John Rollins to beat Matt Gogel -111 @ Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
Rollins can boast a top-15 finish in last year's event and has yet to miss a cut since he won the Canadian Open last year (11 starts). He has shot every round under-par in his three events so far this season and should finish in the top-30 again, which should be easily enough to extend his h2h record against Gogel to 15-5-0 over the past year.

Scott McCarron to beat Pat Perez -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing last year's runner-up again. It really is staggering to recall that he should have won easily last year but when out of bounds twice and into the water once in the last three holes. No wonder he will be glad when this week is over! McCarron's record in this event is far from stellar, but he has only missed one cut in twelve starts and has failed to break par in only one of thirteen rounds this year. Can probably rely on Perez to self-destruct in this one.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +0.53 units

Azinger/Pettersson LOST (Azinger withdrew injured)
Johansson/Tryon WON by 17
Mediate/Perez WON by 11
Choi/Gogel WON by 14
Rollins/Gogel WON by 16
McCarron/Perez LOST by 1

Outrights: 2-1; +9.81 units

Furyk 5th
Kelly mc
Love 1st

Great win by Love to twice recover from faltering in the lead on the final day. He had been the leader after 54 holes and another selection, Furyk, had been the leader after 36 holes. He did falter over the weekend, but sneaked up on the blind side with four birdies in his last five holes to secure a share of 5th place. Some disappointments with the matchups, but a great week to move away from the half-stakes!