Bay Hill Invitational

Outright plays (1 unit):

Scott Hoch to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Olympic and Sirbet
The much-awaited head-to-head between Woods and Els dominates the headlines this week, but one offshoot is some decent outright prices. As beating Woods at Bay Hill seems an difficult task, then place-only is the option used this week. These are large odds for a player who won on his last outing (Ford Championship) and has finished in the top-15 in each of the last four years at Bay Hill. With a best of 7/1 for five places, will lose a place for the much better odds.

Sergio Garcia to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ Olympic and Sirbet
Far from an automatic choice as his 2003 form has been dire, but he is much too talented a player to be 40/1, or at least not yet. It could only take an good 1st round score - and he does have an early tee-time on Thursday - for him to regain some confidence and play to his abilities ... and everyone has their price!

John Huston to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ Five Dimes and Boyle
Can get 13/1 for four places at Olympic and Sirbet, but will trade that for an extra place with a player who finishes in the top-four far less often. He has finished 2nd once this year already (Phoenix Open) and has shown good form in the Florida events in the last two weeks. He had been 6th at the cut last week before a disappointing 3rd round. His recent form at Bay Hill is also impressive. He hung on after being the 1st round leader last year to record his 2nd top-3 finish in this event and in his previous visit he had been 4th at the cut before a poor weekend. With five of his six Tour wins being in Florida, then this looks like being a week that Huston should feature and maybe sneak another top-5 finish.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Adam Scott -110 @ SkyBet
Both have shown excellent form over the past five months or so, but will side with the more dependable Allenby who has finished in the top-35 in five of six starts in this event. Scott finished 68th two years ago and apart from his 11th place finish at the wide-open Heron Bay in that year, he has finishes of 68th, missed cut and 65th in Florida events.

Kenny Perry to beat Adam Scott -111 @ BetandWin, Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
With six cuts made from seven visits to Bay Hill and very few cuts missed overall, Perry just looks the more consistent player who will finish at least mid-table on Sunday evening. Scott could finish anywhere, but further down the leaderboard appears more likely.

Stuart Appleby to beat Robert Gamez -115 @ WSEX
Neither have course records to boast about - Appleby has one top-50 finish in seven attempts while Gamez has one in his last ten - but at least they can both claim top-5 finishes on that solitary occasion that they did contend. Just feel that although Gamez has shown some form in the last couple of events, Appleby is still playing much better. He leads him 3-1-0 h2h this season and 10-2-0 over the past 12 months.

Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ Bet365 and SkyBet
Will repeat last week's match and hope that Baddeley doesn't sneak the tie on the final day again. Baddeley does have an advantage in that he has played the course before this week, though he did miss the cut in 2000, but I just think Rose is simply the better player and has shown he can win events on different continents. He will win on this Tour, but not just yet.

Jeff Sluman to beat Aaron Barber -137 @ Boyle [2 units]
The rookie Barber certainly caught some attention when he ended his run of four missed cuts with a 4th place finish in the Tucson Open. He has since made both his cuts, but has fallen down the leaderboard each week and this will be his first really big event. With no course experience, I can only see him failing to keep his form, so will side with Sluman who has secured four top-25 finishes this season and was 8th two years ago.

Darren Clarke to beat Robert Gamez -125 @ Easybets [2 units]
Clarke's form in this event is also forgettable, but he is simply the better player and particularly now that he is working hard on his game with Butch Harmon. He has beaten Gamez in both their joint events this season and in all five of their joint events in the past 12 months.

Tiger Woods to beat Ernie Els -175 @ Boyle [2 units]
Has Els peaked too early? He certainly looked tired and jaded when stumbling to lose the Dubai Desert Classic to Derksen, as he had done in his 1st round match in the Match Play against Tataurangi. This week will answer some questions, but I don't see him winning this event and he has played more than twice as many event as Woods this season and in four different continents. This matchup is as low as -300 and I'll certainly argue there is value in these odds.

1st round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat K.J. Choi -138 @ Five Dimes
Brian Gay to beat Stephen Ames -115 @ Five Dimes
Sergio Garcia to beat Stuart Appleby -135 @ Five Dimes
Cameron Beckman to beat Len Mattiace -105 @ Five Dimes
Michael Campbell to beat Niclas Fasth -111 @ Five Dimes
Alex Cejka to beat Cliff Kresge -115 @ Five Dimes
Tiger Woods to beat Ernie Els -160 @ Five Dimes
Pat Perez to beat Robert Gamez -115 @ Five Dimes
Shigeki Maruyama to beat Trevor Immelman -119 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

1st round update: 2-5-1; -5.08 units

Allenby/Choi TIED (Push)
Gay/Ames LOST by 4
Garcia/Appleby LOST by 3
Beckman/Mattiace LOST by 5
Cejka/Kresge WON by 5
Woods/Els WON by 4
Perez/Gamez LOST by 4
Maruyama/Immelman LOST by 12

2nd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Luke Donald to beat Aaron Baddeley @ Sirbet
Jonathan Byrd to beat David Duval -117 @ Five Dimes
Ernie Els to beat Tiger Woods +158 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 1-1-1; -0.10 units

Donald/Baddeley LOST by 9
Byrd/Duval WON by 4
Els/Wood TIED (Push)

Mid-point update:

Allenby/Scott LOST by 1
Perry/Scott Leads by 7
Appleby/Gamez Trails by 4
Rose/Baddeley Trails by 7
Sluman/Barber WON by 6
Clarke/Gamez Trails by 1
Woods/Els Leads by 4

Hoch 66th
Garcia mc
Huston 25th

Not a great situation at the cut. An Els victory over Woods in the 2nd round would have helped, but a very strong finish from Woods denied the win. No plays for the 3rd round, so will look to turn this event around in the final round.

4th round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Pat Perez -115 @ Sirbet [2 units]
Dan Forsman to beat Pat Perez -112 @ Five Dimes
Jonathan Byrd to beat Aaron Baddeley -113 @ Five Dimes
Justin Rose to beat Tim Clark -108 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Stephen Leaney to beat Ben Crane -125 @ Five Dimes
Steve Flesch to beat Jeff Maggert -117 @ Five Dimes
Jeff Sluman to beat Arron Oberholser -117 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 3-4-0; -1.80 units

Ames/Perez LOST by 3
Forsman/Perez LOST by 5
Byrd/Baddeley LOST by 1
Rose/Clark WON by 1
Leaney/Crane LOST by 4
Flesch/Maggert WON by 6
Sluman/Oberholser WON by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 3-4-0; -0.85 units

Perry/Scott WON by 6
Appleby/Gamez LOST by 9
Rose/Baddeley LOST by 11
Clarke/Gamez LOST by 3
Woods/Els WON by 19

18-holes: 6-10-1; -6.98 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Hoch 79th
Huston 20th

Not a good week. Had Huston finished in the top-5 - he had been 4th after 54 holes - it would have saved the week, but apart from Bradley Dredge this has not been a good week for picking anything. Will bounce back next week!