The Masters

Outright play (1 unit):

Davis Love to finish in the top-four 8/1 @ Sirbet
Adding a rare ante play following Love's extremely impressive display at Sawgrass. He is generally down to 20-25/1 and will certainly not get any larger before Masters week. He is a two-time winner this season already and should have won the Honda Classic but faltered over the last nine holes against Leonard. With a very solid record of contenting at Augusta, including 2nd in 1999, this could be the year he finally wins this title. Plus, with Els and Singh recovering from injuries and Mickelson returning from the birth of his son, there could be a shortage of real challenger to Woods. However, Tiger who will find Augusta set up much more for his game than Sawgrass and he will remain the one to beat. With prohibitive odds expected for the 'w/o Woods' market, taking the place-only option.

Bellsouth Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to win 14/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Going early because of the mass withdrawals (Singh, Campbell, Lonard, Monty and so on) and the fact that the prices will not be adjusted until the morning. It leaves Weir as the only player in this week's field to have won on the PGA Tour this year and he has won twice. In nine starts, his 27th place finish last week was his worst finish of the year and no-one in this field can compare with that. He has also finished in the top-5 at Sugarloaf twice in his last three visits, so should be a strong contender this week.

Stewart Cink to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetInternet, Boyle and Totalbet
Definitely the home player - his house borders the 14th fairway - and his form on this course justified his decision to have his house built there. He missed the cut last year, but had finished in the top-10 in each of the previous four years. Currently in a rich vein of form that has netted him 2nd place in the Bay Hill Invitation and 6th place in the Tucson Classic, so should be confident this week. Many others will have their mind on Augusta next week, but this is an event that have Cink complete focus.

Bob Tway to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
In excellent form with top-5 finishes in his two events prior to last week and was in contention throughout at Sawgrass - he even outduelled his playing partner, Tiger Woods, in the last round for 15 holes. That could only have boosted his confidence coming into this week. Two top-5 finishes on this course in the last five years are also supportive. However, he hasn't won on Tour since the 1995 MCI Classic so the place-only option definitely looks the best option here.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Steve Flesch to beat Briny Baird -125 @ BlueSq
Passed over Flesch for the outrights given his repeated failures to close out tournaments, but will side with him in the matchups. He can boast three top-10 finishes in five starts in this event and looked to be making his 2nd consecutive top-10 finish last week when 8th after 54 holes. He shot 79 in the final round, but his form is still good and as he is not playing in the Masters next week, this event should get his full focus. Will oppose Baird who has missed four of nine starts this year and two of three starts in this event (63rd last year).

Steve Flesch to beat Scott McCarron -111 @ William Hill, Ladbrokes and SIA
McCarron's record in this event is very impressive - two wins in six starts and a 4th place finish last year - but he is hopelessly out of form. He has four missed cuts and a 1st round Match Play exit in his last five events and has failed to break par in any of his last seven rounds. This week should see an improvement, but he has a lot to improve upon!

Steve Flesch to beat Pat Perez -150 @ Aces
Will take the consistent Flesch against a very hot-and-cold player. A top-10 finish and two missed cuts in his last three events is rather typical of Perez and having finished 50th last, this looks like being a cold week.

John Huston to beat Mark Calcavecchia -118 @ Expekt
No comparison between these two players on this course. Huston had three top-5 finishes from 1998 to 2000, while Calc has missed the cut twice and finished outside the top-50 on the other two occasions. Given comparable current form, this is a significant edge for Huston.

Bob Tway to beat Mark Calcavecchia -111 @ BetandWin, Ladbrokes, SIA, Boyle and Gamebookers
If Huston can beat Calc, then so should one of the outright selections. Tway has been in better form and can count two top-5 finishes in the last five years at Sugarloaf.

Jesper Parnevik to beat John Daly -118 @ Expekt
Could be a basement battle as both have missed at least as many cuts as made this year, but both can claim some success in this event. Daly won this event ten years ago on a different course, while Parnevik was 2nd last year. Indeed, three finishes inside the top-25 is a good record for the Swede so will side with him, plus he leads Daly 4-2-0 h2h over the past three months.

Dudley Hart to beat Corey Pavin -111 @ BetandWin, Paddy Power and Gamebookers
If this is a big-hitters course, then Pavin has no chance here and in three previous visits he has missed the cut twice and finished outside the top-50 on the other occasion. Hart did finish in the top-10 last year and has at least made seven of eight cuts this year.

John Rollins to beat Billy Mayfair -111 @ Ladbrokes and SIA
Apart from a 5th place finish in the Honda Classic, this has been a very poor season for Mayfair and it doesn't look to get any better this week. He has missed three of four cuts in this event and eight of his last ten cuts in Georgia itself. Will side the top-5 finisher from last year.

Adding (2 units):

Chris DiMarco to beat Carlos Franco -133 @ Easybets
There were some improved performances from Franco last month, but he is still on my opposable list as justified by rounds 75 and 76 in the final rounds of two of his last three events. DiMarco has played solidly the last two weeks, particularly after he opened with a 77 last week, and has two top-10 finishes in the last four years at Sugarloaf. Franco missed the cut on his only previous visit (1999) and opposed again.

FWIW Flesch over Perez has now opened at -135 @ Moneyplays!

Adding (1 unit):

Padraig Harrington to win 'Top European' 7/4 @ Bet365
Not much competition in this group. Parnevik did finish 2nd last year, but is not the player he was 12 months ago, Cejka and Pettersson haven't played the course before this week, while main players whose have played Sugarloaf - Fasth, Donald and Olazabal - are not in the same form as the Irishman. Harrington does have a history of following good weeks with more good weeks (though not winning) and should match his top-10 finish of last year. Others have him 5/4, which is more in line with my odds for this market.

1st round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Briny Baird -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Steve Flesch to beat Pat Perez -148 @ Five Dimes
Phil Mickelson to beat Mike Weir -125 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 2-0-1; +2.00 units

Cabrera/Baird TIED (Push)
Flesch/Perez WON (Perez withdrew after 9 holes)
Mickelson/Weir WON by 3

2nd round plays (1 unit):

Paul Stankowski to beat Aaron Barber -112 @ Five Dimes
Angel Cabrera to beat Luke Donald -115 @ Sirbet
Angel Cabrera to beat Carlos Franco -115 @ Five Dimes
Esteban Toledo to beat Brenden Pappas -118 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 3-1-0; +1.85 units

Stankowski/Barber WON by 1
Cabrera/Donald WON by 1
Cabrera/Franco LOST by 7
Toledo/Pappas WON by 1

Mid-point update:

Flesch/Baird LOST by 7
Flesch/McCarron WON by 4
Flesch/Perez WON (Perez withdrew)
Huston/Calcavecchia Leads by 2
Tway/Calcavecchia Leads by 8
Parnevik/Daly WON by 2
Hart/Pavin LOST (Hart disqualified)
Rollins/Mayfair WON by 7
DiMarco/Franco Leads by 3

Weir mc
Cink 28th
Tway 1st
Harrington mc

Excellent situation at the cut. Have had some good breaks in the 18-hole plays and the matchups look good at the cut with only three remaining. Cink has a decent shot at a place finish and hopefully Tway can repeat his feat of the Ford Championship when he also the leader at the cut and hung on for 3rd place.

3rd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Chris DiMarco to beat Billy Andrade -140 @ Moneyplays
Chris DiMarco to beat John Huston -130 @ Five Dimes
Billy Andrade to beat Joey Sindelar -123 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Doug Barron to beat Thomas Levet -110 @ Five Dimes
Brian Bateman to beat Jeff Gallagher -118 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
David Toms to beat Carlos Franco -130 @ Five Dimes [3 units]  [-180 @ Moneyplays!]
Nolan Henke to beat Mike Grob -122 @ Five Dimes
Carl Pettersson to beat Bob Tway +120 @ Five Dimes
Garrett Willis to beat Cameron Yancey -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

3rd round update: 4-5-0; +1.72 units

DiMarco/Andrade LOST by 3
DiMarco/Huston LOST by 2
Andrade/Sindelar WON by 2
Barron/Levet WON by 1
Bateman/Gallagher LOST by 2
Toms/Franco WON by 4
Henke/Grob LOST by 2
Pettersson/Tway LOST by 6
Willis/Yancey WON by 1

4th round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Carlos Franco -125 @ Moneyplays [3 units]
Retief Goosen to beat Stewart Cink -150 @ Moneyplays
Bob Tway to beat Lee Janzen -110 @ Moneyplays [2 units]

4th round update: 3-0-0; +6.00 units

Calcavecchia/Franco WON by 2
Goosen/Cink WON by 4
Tway/Janzen WON by 6

Final update:

Matchups: 6-3-0; +3.46 units

Huston/Calcavecchia LOST by 2
Tway/Calcavecchia WON by 7
DiMarco/Franco WON by 6

18-holes: 12-6-1; +11.57 units

Outrights: 1-2; +6.00 units

Cink 6th
Tway 2nd

Great event! Surprised that Tway did not hold onto his lead - he was three shots ahead at the turn - but all credit to Crane who shot 64-63 over the weekend. At least it validated the place-only approach with Tway. Cink came up a shot short for a top-5 finish when he failed to birdie the final and third-easiest hole of the day, but at least the stake was covered with the Goosen/Cink hedge. Will be tough to top this result next week!