Buick Open

Outright play (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 16/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Missed the cut in the British Open, but that should be of no concern back on the PGA Tour where he has been extremely impressive even before he won the U.S. Open. He has seven top-5 finishes in his last eleven Tour events on this side of the pond, which makes 16/1 look very generous indeed, particularly with Tiger having driver troubles and switching back from a Nike to a Titleist driver this week. Furyk's record in this event is similarly consistent, having made the cut on all eight previous visits and finishing in the top-20 on six of those occasions. Difficult to see him not on the leaderboard on Sunday.

Will post other plays later when Five Dimes' top-5 place lines appear.

Adding outright plays (1 unit):

Scott Verplank to finish in the top-five 17/2 @ Five Dimes
Verplank is a former winner of this title in 1988 and he has since been a runner-up in 1998 and in contention in each of the last three years, so he should be confident of a good week this week, particularly as he is playing very well at the moment. Ignoring the British Open, he has finished in the top-20 in eight of his last eleven events and while his temperament may be a little suspect when in the lead, he does look a likely contender this week.

Fred Funk to finish in the top-five 13/1 @ Five Dimes
Funk is another whose missed cut at the British Open can easily be ignored and so can his missed cut in the Greater Hartford Open last week. It is not easy to make the transition from links golf on another continent, so this should be the week that he returns to business as usual. That was the form that netted him three top-10 finishes in four events before Royal St. George's and there is good reason to expect Warwick Hills to bring out that form in him. In his last twelve visits, he has finished no worse than 21st on ten of those occasions, including 2nd last year. Not a prolific winner, but stands a better than 13/1 chance of finishing in the top-5.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Steve Flesch to beat Robert Damron -118 @ Expekt
Damron is making cuts at the moment, which he wasn't doing at the start of the season - he missed his first seven cuts of 2003 - but this will be his 9th straight week of competitive golf as he tries to accumulate the funds needed to keep his Tour Card. Flesch is the better player, has a much better history at Warwick Hills and will be far fresher.

Glen Day to beat Todd Fischer -110 @ Bet365
Fischer should also be showing some signs of fatigue as this will be his 13th event in 15 weeks. He now has a chance of retaining his card after his 3rd place finish last week, but should be 2nd best in this match. Day finished 5th in the B.C. Open two weeks ago and has a good record on this course, whereas Fischer has yet to play it.

Bob Tway to beat Hank Kuehne +100 @ NordicBet
Similar story with this matchup. Kuehne has yet to play the course, whereas Tway has an excellent record around Warwick Hills with top-20 finishes in six of the last seven years, including a runners-up spot in 1999. Tway may not be in the best of form, but he always seems to play well here whether in-form or not.

Adding (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to beat Jerry Kelly -180 @ WSEX
Huge contrast in form between these players. Kelly has missed the cut on both occasions he has played at Warwick Hills and he has missed the cut in four of his last eight starts. Wouldn't go much lower than these odds, but very confident that Furyk will be a factor this week.

Glen Hnatiuk to beat Steve Pate -115 @ Five Dimes
Can't see either of these two being a factor, though both did play well last week. It was a rare outing on the PGA Tour for Pate, who had missed his last four cuts on the PGA and Nationwide Tour. He has also missed his last four cuts in this event, so will side with the Canadian who looks far more likely to be playing on this Tour again next year.

1st round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Tom Byrum to beat Chris Smith -122 @ Five Dimes
Billy Mayfair to beat David Gossett -117 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Glen Hnatiuk to beat Steve Pate -115 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

1st round update: 2-0-1; +3.00 units

Byrum/Smith WON by 4
Mayfair/Gossett WON by 5
Hnatiuk/Pate TIED (Push)

2nd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Bob Estes to beat Jerry Kelly -110 @ Sirbet [2 units]
Chris DiMarco to beat David Sutherland -167 @ NordicBet
Olin Browne to beat Tom Byrum -105 @ NordicBet [2 units]

2nd round update: 3-0-0; +5.00 units

Estes/Kelly WON by 6
DiMarco/Sutherland WON by 3
Browne/Byrum WON by 4

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3-0; -1.28 units

Flesch/Damron LOST by 2
Day/Fischer LOST (Day withdrew)
Tway/Kuehne LOST by 6
Furyk/Kelly WON by 10
Hnatiuk/Pate WON by 4

18-holes: 5-0-1; +8.00 units

Outrights: 1-2; +8.00 units

Furyk 1st
Verplank 24th
Funk 24th

Profitable event thanks to Mr. Furyk again! The other outright had been on the fringes of contention for a top-5 place all week, but would have had too much ground to make up in Sunday had they come close. A better week with the 18-hole plays, but I can't see these being continued ... even if they were to become profitable, the return would hardly justify the effort.