Buick Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and BlueSq
There is good reason to avoid a player who was in contention in a major the previous week, but Singh does not seem to fit this bill. Taking a top-20 finish as being in contention (he finished 20th last week), he has finished 3rd, 6th and 11th on the three occasions since the start of the 2001 season that he has followed a top-20 finish in a major with an event the following week. Add this to the fact that he is a two-time winner of this event (1993 and 1995) and has finished outside the top-25 just twice in ten starts here, then there is plenty of reasons to expect a better finish to this week than last.

David Toms to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and UKBetting
In the last month, Toms has quietly followed a win at the Wachovia Championship with a 6th place finish in the Byron Nelson Championship and a 5th place finish at Olympia Fields last week. He hasn't been this consistent all year and will surely fancy his chances in this event. He played for the first time in six years and finished 12th last year and he was never in contention last week until a low 4th round enabled him to keep rising up the leaderboard all day long. He should be fresh and the course does suit his game.

Stewart Cink to win 28/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
There can be no doubt that this course suits Cink's game. In five starts here, he has three top-6 finishes. He had been well-fancied for last week's event given his form since March and his 62-61 in the U.S. Open qualifier at The Lakes, but was always too far off the pace. This looks a good week to truly show his form.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Fred Funk to beat Brad Faxon -111 @ Centrebet
Faxon has a very good record at Westchester, but is out of form. Two missed cuts and a best finish of 34th in his last five events does not compare well to three finishes in the top-11 in Funk's last five events. Funk has played well here in the past and should at least repeat his top-25 place finish of last year.

Scott Verplank to beat Billy Mayfair -143 @ Easybets
Verplank's course form is not particularly impressive and this is his first reappearance since 1997 when he missed the cut for the second time in five visits. It look good when compared to Mayfair's course form though. He has four missed cuts and a 73rd place finish in his five previous visits.  With Mayfair having finished ahead of Verplank just once in the last three months (seven events), it should be difficult for him to achieve it this week.

Scott Verplank to beat Hal Sutton -120 @ SkyBet
There is no doubting that Sutton has shown an impressive return to form this season with three top-10 finishes in his last six events, but he fail to qualify for the U.S. Open and his record on this course is far from impressive. Despite this upsurge in form, Verplank still holds a h2h lead over him in the past three months and with five top-10 finishes in his last eight starts, looks far more consistent and likely to finish on the leaderboard this week.

Jeff Sluman to beat Hal Sutton +100 @ BlueSq
Sluman is another who has excellent current form and questionable course form. He missed the cut at the weekend, but had finished in the top-20 in each of his last five events and these were all against strong fields. Like Verplank, he looks too consistent for Sutton and will gladly take these odds as they are reversed elsewhere in this common matchup.

Adding (1 unit):

Retief Goosen to beat Sergio Garcia -125 @ BlueSq
Garcia has good course form, but it is still very easy to oppose someone who has missed six of his last eight PGA Tour cuts. Goosen underperformed last week, but should repeat his top-25 finish of last year at the very least.

Jerry Kelly to beat Rory Sabbatini -111 @ BetandWin
Kelly blows hot-and-cold as much as Sabbatini - four top-10s in his last ten starts, but also three cuts missed - but he still consistently finishes ahead of him when they compete together. His h2h advantage is 5-2-0 over the past three months and 10-4-0 over the past year. With Sabbatini having missed the cut on his two previous visits and Kelly finishing in the top-10 last year, this should be another profitable week from opposing the South African.

1st round plays (1 unit unless stated):

David Gossett to beat Woody Austin -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
David Gossett +.5 to beat Joe Durant -130 @ WSEX

1st round update: 2-0-0; +3.00 units

Gossett/Austin WON by 3
Gossett/Durant WON by 3.5

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

David Sutherland +.5 to beat Tim Clark +105 @ WSEX
Hal Sutton +.5 to beat Mark Calcavecchia -115 @ WSEX
Esteban Toledo +.5 to beat Briny Baird +140 @ WSEX [3 units]

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +1.10 units

Sutherland/Clark WON by 2.5
Sutton/Calcavecchia WON by 2.5
Toledo/Baird LOST by 0.5

Mid-point update:

Funk/Faxon Trails by 5
Verplank/Mayfair Leads by 2
Verplank/Sutton WON by 8
Sluman/Sutton WON by 3
Goosen/Garcia Leads by 6
Kelly/Sabbatini LOST by 1

Singh 15th
Toms 31st
Cink mc

Promising position at the cut with a healthy profit in the 18-hole plays and the matchups generally ahead. Almost a bumper day today with the 2nd round plays - only denied by a two-shot swing against Toledo on the 17th hole. Singh and Toms are not out of the hunt for at least a top-5 spot.

3rd round play (1 unit):

Billy Andrade to beat Per-Ulrik Johansson -113 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-0-0; +1.00 units

Andrade/Johansson WON by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +1.64 units

Funk/Faxon WON by 1
Verplank/Mayfair WON by 7
Goosen/Garcia LOST by 4

18-holes: 4-1-0; +5.10 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Singh 18th
Toms 18th

Profitable event with a good return on the matchups and 18-hole plays. Singh and Toms never got into the top-10 let alone the top-5, so it finished pretty much as good as it could get.