Buick Invitational

Outright play (1 unit):

Rocco Mediate to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ SIA
SIA tend to copy the William Hill golf lines and the odds of 40/1 on Mediate to win are simply wrong. He is generally 25/1 everywhere else. His history on this course may not be pretty, but he last played at Torrey Pines in 1998 and his game has improved significantly since then. His average rounds were 70.40 in 2002 and 69.97 in 2001; but lower than in any other year on Tour. His current scoring average this year, though, is 68.33 with two top-5 finishes in three events. Free of injury, he is playing extremely well. Although he has won events in three of the last four seasons, the place-only option is preferred at SIA at these odds.

Adding (1 unit):

Bob Estes to finish in the top-four 11/1 @ Olympic
Siding with a player who is definitely a place-only proposition. He had a run of top-10 finishes at the end of last season and was the best player bar Els at the Mercedes Championships, his only start of the season. He finished top of the driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats that week, but couldn't buy a putt. As a 40/1 selection it was painful to watch! With the South course at Torrey Pines toughened up last year for a U.S. Open bid, he had his best finish here with a top-5 finish. Would have like the extra place, but these are generous odds for someone who gets himself into contention so frequently.

Adding (1 unit):

Chris Riley to win 33/1 e.w. @ SIA and Easybets
Odds are not really short enough to consider place-only, but there is good reason to support Riley this week. He is very much a local player having been born in the San Diego area, the home of this event and Californian players do have a particularly good record in this event. He has achieved two top-10 and one top-20 finish in four previous visits and he is a vastly improved player nowadays. The move to a more U.S. Open format should also suit the player with the best short game on Tour, so there is every reason to expect him to repeat the top-10 finishes he achieved in the two events in Hawaii last month.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Stuart Appleby to beat Aaron Baddeley -122 @ Centrebet
Opposing Baddeley who withdrew from last week's event citing fatigue as the reason. He had played three straight weeks, but the loss to Els in the Sony Open had obviously taken a lot out of him as he missed the next two cuts. With the weather forecast none too pleasant, this should also work against Baddeley who gave up on his European Tour exemption in 2000-01 because he disliked the weather conditions in Europe. Appleby did play in Australia last week, but he will have gained rather than lost almost a day in the flight to California and he did play well in the ANZ Championship.

Luke Donald to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Top-20 in two of his three starts this year and in this event last year, Donald looks far more consistent and in the better form than the Australian. He will also be more at ease with the weather conditions this week.

Jeff Sluman to beat Aaron Baddeley +105 @ Intertops
Sluman is also much more consistent than Baddeley. His last missed cut was eight months ago - a run that has spawned 11 top-25 finishes in 17 starts - and he has never missed the cut in 11 previous visits to Torrey Pines. The moves to toughen the South course will only suit Sluman even more.

Jay Haas to beat Mark O'Meara -111 @ BetandWin
O'Meara's form in this event is almost as impressive as in the AT&T, but Haas has started the season in even more impressive form. He followed a top-25 finish in the Phoenix Open with a runners-up spot in the Bob Hope Classic, both times finishing ahead of O'Meara. His form at Torrey Pines is chequered, but with O'Meara only making one cut in three this year, a mid-table finish should suffice.

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Rory Sabbatini -120 @ BetInternet
Both in good form at the moment with top-30 finishes for both players in each event this year and a top-10 apiece, plus both have a top-5 finish on this course as well. Just feel that Maruyama is the more consistent player - he has made his three cuts here, whereas Sabbatini has made two of four - and is more likely to prosper on the South course with the move to a more U.S. Open setup and the inclement weather that is forecast. They are very different in terms of temperament.

Adding (1 unit):

Angel Cabrera to beat Alex Cejka -135 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Cejka who will probably need to take a break after this week. He has played every event for which he has been eligible to play and that means 16 rounds in four weeks and the last two weeks have been six-hour rounds in the pro-ams. His form has suffered as a result after a good showing in the Phoenix Open and he has shot over-par in his last four rounds. Neither player has any course form, but Cabrera comes into this event fresh from an extended layoff having finished the 2002 with four top-6 finishes, including a win in his home Open. He looks far more likely to be around at the weekend.

Mid-point update:

Appleby/Baddeley LOST by 1
Donald/Baddeley Leads by 4
Sluman/Baddeley LOST by 2
Haas/O'Meara WON (O'Meara withdrew)
Maruyama/Sabbatini Trails by 5
Cabrera/Cejka LOST by 2

Mediate dns
Estes 63rd
Riley 20th

Disappointing to lose three matchups by no more than two shots with the opponent making the cut on the line. Looks like being a poor result this week unless Riley can sneak into a top-5 finish to offset some of the losses.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-3-0; -0.57 units

Donald/Baddeley WON by 15
Maruyama/Sabbatini WON by 1

Outrights: 0-2; -2.00 units

Estes 28th
Riley 37th

Disappointing event decided at the cut. Baddeley would finish next to last over the weekend, but little compensation. Never even got a sniff of a payout on the outrights.