Byron Nelson Championship

Outright plays (1 unit):

Bob Estes to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James
With winds of 12-15mph forecast each day, siding with three players who play well in these conditions and should be aided by the lack of par-fives at the TPC Four Seasons Resort at Las Colinas. Estes has a mixed record in this event - 6th, 12th, 62nd and four missed cuts in the last seven years - but he approaches this event in excellent form having finished no lower than 31st all season and was only denied by Steve Flesch in a playoff for the HP Classic of New Orleans two weeks ago. One of his four Tour wins has been in his home State of Texas.

Scott Verplank to win 33/1 e.w. @ Tote
Verplank is another who has a mix of good and bad finishes at Las Colinas. He has played in each of the last nine years, finishing in the top-5 twice (2nd in a playoff to Robert Damron two years ago), but missing the cut four times in that streak. But also like Estes, he is in good form coming into this event with top-10 finishes in three of his last four events, including the Players Championship and the Masters, and really should have won the HP Classic of New Orleans. He now lives in Oklahoma, but was born in Dallas, Texas.

Robert Allenby to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
No Texas link for Allenby, but he did win the Houston Open in 2000. He also finished in the top-10 last year and has been impressive at times this year with three top-five finishes from eight starts in 2003. He is an excellent wind player and the more that is a factor and the less this is a putting contest, the greater his chances will be.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Bob Estes to beat Chad Campbell -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Opposing Campbell in this company as his form has dipped a little since he had four top-10 finishes in five events in February-March. Still solid, but has not been in contention recently and has yet to finish in the top-20 in a PGA Tour event in Texas. He'll make the cut, but top-20 at best. Will side with the outright pick who has finished ahead of Campbell in their last two common events.

Nick Price to beat Chad Campbell -125 @ Centrebet
Will also side with Price against Campbell given his consistent form, particularly evident last week when he led the Wachovia Championship in the early stages, and excellent course history. He has finished outside the top-20 just once in his last nine visits to Las Colinas and has been 3rd and 8th in the last two years.

Kenny Perry to beat Robert Gamez -111 @ BetandWin
If Perry is one of the most consistent players on Tour, Gamez is quite the opposite! Perry has made his last ten cuts on Tour, whereas Gamez is seven from ten. Perry has made seven cuts in his last nine visits to Las Colinas, including four top-15s, whereas Gamez has made one from two with a best finish of 50th. Perry has made eight of his last cuts in Texas, including three top-10s in his last five starts, whereas Gamez has missed five of ten, with just one top-30. Gamez did finish 2nd last week, but it was the only time in their last four common events that Gamez has finished ahead of Perry and Perry just seems the more dependable player for this week.

Tim Petrovic to beat Hank Kuehne -105 @ WSEX
Kuehne has a good record in Texas and finished 13th last year, but this is not an event that should suit his game. There are only two par-fives on the TPC course and it has been tightened for this year's event. The changes should suit Petrovic more and given his high finishes when making the cut in recent months, he could improve on his 17th place finish of last year.

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Frank Lickliter -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Can't see this one lasting until the weekend - both players have failed to reach the weekend in five of their last six events! Maruyama's season has been hampered by injury, but as defending champion this should be a week that he plays beyond the pain barrier. Lickliter has just been playing extremely poorly since he won in Tucson and his confidence must be extremely low.

Loren Roberts to beat Arron Oberholser -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Had this matchup a few weeks ago and will play it again. Roberts has never finished below Oberholser in a PGA Tour event and with an extensive course history that includes a win in 1999 and a top-10 finish last year, he shouldn't finish below Oberholser who has yet to play these courses.

Adding (1 unit):

Rod Pampling to beat Hal Sutton -115 @ Five Dimes
Take out Sutton's 3rd place finish and his best finish since the beginning of March (7 starts) has been 57th. In the same period, Pampling can count two top-10 finishes and did finish ahead of Sutton when they both played last year. Pampling is hardly consistent, but will always look to oppose the Ryder Cup captain.

No 1st round plays.

Mid-point update:

Estes/Campbell Leads by 1
Price/Campbell Leads by 2
Perry/Gamez LOST by 15
Petrovic/Kuehne Leads by 8
Maruyama/Lickliter WON by 7
Roberts/Oberholser LOST by 5
Pampling/Sutton LOST by 5

Estes 32nd
Verplank 3rd
Allenby 7th

Good position with two selections in the hunt for a outright payout. Will need at least one to deliver to ensure a profitable event as currently need to win all three remaining matchups just to secure a small profit on that front.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-3-0; +0.37 units

Estes/Campbell WON by 3
Price/Campbell WON by 11
Petrovic/Kuehne WON by 7

Outrights: 2-1; +6.30 units

Estes 27th
Verplank 4th
Allenby 3rd

Nice profit on the event after the remaining matchups all retained their leads and the two outrights in contention managed to finish in the top-5. Not quite enough to catch Vijay, but still a decent return on the event.