FBR Capitol Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Padraig Harrington to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Not a player who wins enough and this would be the first time on American soil, but a top-5 place finish would be enough to cover the stakes on the other plays. He has one win and two 2nd place finishes in his last six starts - one runners-up spot was in the Players Championship - so he is certainly playing well enough to win. Last week's 13th place finish was a very creditable performance against a much stronger field, so it should again all depend on how negative Padraig gets about himself.

Stuart Appleby to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Paddy Power and Stan James
Appleby certainly has course form to note. In seven previous visits he has finished outside the top-20 just once and did win the event in 1998. He has been a mixture of missed cuts and high finishes in the past couple of months, so while he is avoidable for the matchups, he does stand a good chance of securing another top-5 finish if he is playing at the weekend.

Charles Howell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Tote
He looks to have discovered some of his early season form in the past few months. He finished 7th in the Wachovia Championship four weeks ago and was the first round leader at the Memorial Tournament last week. He would have had a better chance to hold onto that lead had the weather been more favourable for his game, but at least he is threatening to win again. Creditable performances in the last two years lend support to his credentials this time around. Taking the inferior place odds with Tote over the 28/1 available with Bet365 and Stan James.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Robert Allenby to beat Rich Beem -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Beem's course history is certainly famous. He was a 500/1 winner in 1999 and also finished 2nd last year just as he began another streak of career form that eventually won him the PGA Championship. He is not in the same form as last year with 15th place being his highest finish in the last four months. It can also be recalled that he missed the cut in 2000 and 2001. Barring any repeat of his stomach problems last week, Allenby is in much better form and has been far more consistent this and every other year.

Kirk Triplett to beat Rich Beem -120 @ William Hill
There is nothing wrong with Triplett's form either. He has five top-20 finishes (two of them top-5) in his last seven starts. His record at Avenel is almost as volatile as Beem's with two top-10s and two missed cuts in the past six visits, but it is on current that he has the decisive edge. He looks good to grind out a top-20 finish which makes a good matchup play against a player who plays boom or bust.

Mark O'Meara to beat Hank Kuehne -120 @ WSEX
Kuehne's burst of form is over. In his last four events he has missed two cuts and finished outside the top-40 in the other two with just three of twelve rounds in the 60s. Over the same period, O'Meara played in three of the same events and never finished below Kuehne, so with a good course history also on his side, this is an uncommon play in favour of the veteran.

Adding (1 unit):

Stuart Appleby to beat Hal Sutton -110 @ Bet365, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Simply refusing to believe that the Ryder Cup captain is back to his best. He does have three top-six finishes in his last five events (plus two poor events), but he missed the cut on the only occasion that he has played this course in this decade. He may prove me wrong, but I will continue to side with course specialist against Sutton for some time yet.

John Huston to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -110 @ BetInternet
Olazabal is another I will continue to oppose. He has fared well at times this year and his 66 in the 3rd round last week in poor weather conditions was a very impressive feat, but he misses too many cuts. Will side with Huston who returned after a five-week layoff to finish in the top-20 last week and will be less rusty this week.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

Phil Mickelson +.5 to beat Davis Love -105 @ WSEX
Jesper Parnevik +.5 to Rich Beem +115 @ WSEX [3 units]
Stuart Appleby +.5 to beat Briny Baird -110 @ WSEX

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +1.00 units

Mickelson/Love WON by 1.5
Parnevik/Beem LOST by 2.5
Appleby/Baird WON by 3.5

Mid-point update:

Allenby/Beem Trails by 7
Triplett/Beem Trails by 4
O'Meara/Kuehne WON by 3
Appleby/Sutton Trails by 7
Huston/Olazabal All Square

Harrington 24th
Appleby 63rd
Howell 9th

Two chances with the outrights as the leaderboard is tightly packed behind Sabbatini and fortunate that the only matchup decided at the cut is a win. None of the others are leading, so they can only improve!

3rd round plays (1 unit):

Paul Lawrie to beat Woody Austin -122 @ Five Dimes
Alex Cejka to beat Bob Burns -115 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 1-0-1; +1.00 units

Lawrie/Austin TIED (Push)
Cejka/Burns WON by 10

4th round play (1 unit):

Craig Parry to beat David Duval -125 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 0-1-0; -1.25 units

Parry/Duval LOST by 1

Final update:

Matchups: 2-3-0; -1.55 units

Allenby/Beem LOST by 9
Triplett/Beem LOST by 13
Appleby/Sutton LOST by 8
Huston/Olazabal WON by 6

18-holes: 3-2-1; +0.75 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Harrington 13th
Appleby 50th
Howell 59th

Harrington almost rescued the week when he got to within a shot of the lead on the front nine today, but he slipped out of the money and that's this week summed up. Big loss on the week as the 18-hole and outright plays slip into the red for all Tours. Another week like this and we'll be in deficit for everything!