FUNAI Classic at the Walt Disney World Resort

Outright plays (1 unit):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power and BetDirect
Hard to fault a player who has finished outside the top-20 just once in any event since the Players Championship in March (20 starts) and currently ranks a very close 2nd in the Money List with three wins this year. He looked in very good form last week at the HSBC World Matchplay until he came up against an incredible burst of form from Els (he had been 4-up until Els won eight holes on the bounce) and does travel well. He shouldn't be too far from the leaderboard on Sunday.

K.J. Choi to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Choi has made a habit of being on the leaderboard on Sundays in the past couple of months and he obliged last week when 20/1. The seven-way share of 5th place meant there was a minimal return, but he has now finished in the top-7 in each of his last five starts, including one win, and he finished 6th last year. In this form, he can certainly compete with the best.

John Huston to win 50/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Fred Couples' odds (100/1 William Hill) are certainly tempting, but siding with a player who has a much better record in this event instead. Huston is a two-time winner of this event (1992 and 1998) and has shown some impressive form since he returned to the Tour after a five-week break. He won for the first time on Bentgrass greens at the Southern Farm Bureau Classic earlier this month and was only three shots out of a place finish last week as well. Back in his favoured Florida State, he should go even better this week.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Kevin Sutherland to beat Tom Byrum -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Byrum has missed the last five cuts here and trails Sutherland 6-14-0 h2h over the past year. Fairly convincing.

Fred Couples to beat Bob Estes -110 @ Bet365 [2 units]
Did consider Couples for the outright market, but apart from his win in April he is a player who consistently makes cuts and finishes in the top-half of the leaderboard but without getting the top-5 finish. He is much more suited to matchups and is one of the best pro-am players in the game. Sharp contrast with Estes who has missed his last four cuts in this event and trails Couples 1-5-0 h2h over the past year.
(also available at Expekt and Ladbrokes)

Fred Couples to beat Jeff Sluman -110 @ SkyBet [2 units]
Sluman does have a better record in this event, but still no top-50 finish in the last two years. He also misses a lot more cuts than Couples and trails 2-7-0 h2h over the past year.

Fred Couples to beat Bob Tway -120 @ BestLine [2 units]
Tway's course record is even better, but does still match that of Couples over the longer run and in pro-ams in general. He did win the Canadian Open and finish 2nd in Texas Open in September, but the bubble seems to have burst. He finished 59th in the limited-field American Express Championship and missed the cut in Las Vegas. He also trails 2-7-0 h2h against Couples over the past year to highlight his more erratic play.
(also available at Olympic, Aces, Sirbet, Five Dimes and Pinnacle)

Jim Furyk to beat Davis Love -111 @ BetandWin, Paddy Power and SIA
Love's record in this event is very impressive, while Furyk's is decidedly average for a player who traditionally plays well in Florida. But Love had a big course advantage last week as he redesigned the course and missed the cut. He is simply not playing as well as he was a few months ago and that is why he has not finished ahead of Furyk in any event in the last three months. Can't see it happening here.
(available generally)

Jim Furyk to beat Phil Mickelson -180 @ WSEX
Big price, but I don't see Mickelson as being on the comeback trail. He secured only his 2nd top-10 finish since the Masters in Las Vegas two weeks ago and has very little course experience. He has played in this event only twice, finishing 46th in 1992 and missing the cut in 1998. I just think that Furyk has a greater than 64% chance of winning this match.

Tom Lehman to beat Lee Janzen -139 @ Ladbrokes
Easy player to oppose. Janzen has missed six of his last seven cuts and the only success was on the tough Oak Hill course at the PGA Championship. The courses he faces this week are very different and he must be odds-on to miss the cut for a second successive year.

Tom Lehman to beat Jesper Parnevik -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Successfully opposed Parnevik last week on the basis of the pressure of trying to retain his card and will do so again. Lehman is consistently and comfortably making cuts at the moment, while Parnevik is not. Too much pressure so even if he does well for the first couple of rounds, he will find the weekend very difficult.

Final update:

Matchups: 5-3-0; +0.29 units

Sutherland/Byrum WON by 4
Couples/Estes LOST by 2
Couples/Sluman WON by 4
Couples/Tway LOST by 1
Furyk/Love LOST by 3
Furyk/Mickelson WON by 4
Lehman/Janzen WON by 3
Lehman/Parnevik WON by 1

Outrights: 1-2; +6.75 units

Singh 1st
Choi mc
Huston 45th

Another profitable event on the PGA Tour. Vijay led for most of the tournament and even though he was caught at the end of the third round, he was first out of the blocks on Sunday and never really looked like being caught. Very nice!