Ford Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to win 16/1 e.w. @ Boyle
With Singh and Mickelson out of the events, these prices will not last and in a field without Woods as well, Weir is certainly the player of 2003 in this field. Twice a winner this season and having lost in the 2nd round last week, he should not be too drained by the matchplay event if he did need 26 holes to defeat Loren Roberts. A runner-up two years ago, he should not be too far from that finish this week.

Jim Furyk to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
With the event signaling the start of the Florida Swing and the transition to Bermuda greens, course form is rather important this week. While Weir can claim a runners-up spot two years ago, Furyk can claim to be the title-holder the year beforehand. He is a former course record holder and is in excellent form. He had high finishes in the Mercedes Championship and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am before falling to Darren Clarke in one of the best matches of last week.

Nick Price to win 22/1 e.w. @ Boyle
Since Raymond Floyd toughened the course in 1996 Nick Price can boast an excellent record in this event. He has finished in the top-10 in five of the last six years and been over-par in just two of 24 rounds in that time. Having finished 4th and 3rd in his last two events before last week - he should have won the Nissan Open, but his game started to fall apart on the final day - and having been tested for no more than three rounds last week, he looks in excellent shape to secure another top-5 finish this week.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat David Duval -120 @ Bet365
Always look to oppose the struggling Duval and will do gladly with a player of Cabrera's quality. He had a good top-20 finish in the Nissan Open, looked impressive but temperamental last week and finished 5th here last year. He won't be too far behind that mark this year.

Angel Cabrera to beat Steve Elkington -111 @ Victor Chandler
Elk has an impressive record on the Blue Monster - two wins and two top-5 finishes in the last eight years - but he is far from the player that he was in the mid-90s. Should finish in the top-30 this week, but not a genuine contender like the Argentine this week.

Nick Price to beat K.J. Choi -118 @ Centrebet [2 units]
Price is another genuine contender this week and will combine an outright play on him with two matchup plays as well. Choi has the ability to challenge this week and he can boast two top-5 finishes this year, but fatigue must surely be a mitigating factor working against him. This will be the 9th event of the season and he has only missed one event so far. No-one has played more events than the Korean and it will surely catch up with him sometime soon.

Nick Price to beat Lee Janzen -150 @ Five Dimes and Sirbet [2 units]
Strange matchup and will gladly back Price at these odds against a player whose best finish this season is 24th (Price's worst finish is 21st) and has no top-20 finishes at Doral in his last five visits (Price has finished in the top-10 in five of his last six).

Scott Verplank to beat Skip Kendall -111 @ William Hill and Gamebookers
Don't think Verplank will have a particularly great event, but should outperform Kendall who has yet to secure a top-20 finish in five starts this year or in this event in eight attempts. Verplank can count one from three starts this year and in two of the last three years at Doral. He also has a compelling 14-3-0 h2h record against Kendall over the past 12 months.

Scott Verplank to beat Len Mattiace +100 @ SIA, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Opposing Mattiace because of his inconsistent form this season (two cuts missed in his last four strokeplay events) and his very inconsistent form in this event. He can claim a top-10 finish in 1998 and a top-20 finish last year, but he has made the cut at Doral in just three of eight attempts. Siding with the more consistent Verplank at these odds.

Stewart Cink to beat Pat Perez -115 @ WSEX
These playing are moving in opposite directions in their form. Cink is the improving player with finishes of mc, mc, 43rd, 17th and 6th in his five starts this year; Perez is the fading player with finishes of 6th, 47th, 50th and 32nd in the last six weeks. While both have comparable course form, Cink looks the one who is playing with more confidence this week.

Mid-point update:

Cabrera/Duval WON by 10
Cabrera/Elkington LOST by 5
Price/Choi Trails by 2
Price/Janzen Trails by 4
Verplank/Kendall Trails by 1
Verplank/Mattiace Trails by 5
Cink/Perez WON by 4

Weir 6th
Furyk 2nd
Price 69th

Very fortunate situation at the cut. In the only remaining matchups, the two selections finished on the cut mark when it was touch and go all day whether it would end there or one less. So survive for another (two) days and maybe some of the matchup deficits can be reversed. Given a look at the players on the leaderboard, there should be every chance of a good return from Furyk and Weir in the outrights.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-3-1; -1.58 units

Price/Choi LOST by 1
Price/Janzen TIED (Push)
Verplank/Kendall LOST by 6
Verplank/Mattiace WON by 2

Outrights: 1-2; +0.00 units

Weir 14th
Furyk 2nd
Price 48th

Got lucky with the cut and at least it counted. Verplank won one of his matches and Price got a push in one though it could have been a lot better had he played the back nine so poorly. Big loss on the week across all Tours. But when you have selections in three events leading for the majority of the final day only to finish 2nd in each case, it could have been so very different.