Chrysler Classic of Greensboro

Outright plays (1 unit):

K.J. Choi to win 20/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Cast-iron selection at this price. Has finished in the top-7 in each of his last four starts, including one win (German Masters) and in this event in the last two years. Doesn't come much clearer than that!

David Toms to win 22/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Toms' course form is nowhere near as impressive, but this is a tough course that rewards players who put the ball on the fairway and have good ball-striking skills. Toms fits that description and may be able to perform better now that the event has moved from its April schedule position to October. He has shown his best form in short bursts this season, winning twice and was 5th in the American Express Championship in his last outing. Should be no more than 16/1 against this field.

Robert Allenby to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Victor Chandler
Allenby is another whose course form is not particularly good - one visit and one missed cut in 1999 - but he did display much better form than this last week en route to a top-5 finish before he made a complete mess of the last hole (and cost me a matchup wager!). He is repeatedly getting himself into contention and would not be 4th in the important 'All-Round Ranking' if he were not in good form this season. This price looks generous for this class of player.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Robert Allenby to beat Frank Lickliter -120 @ William Hill
Lickliter's form has improved considerably in his last three starts - his previous top-20 finish had been six months prior to this return of form - but he has only finished ahead of Allenby once in that run and finished behind him last week. He has also missed the cut on both occasions he has played at Forest Oaks in the past five years, so every reason to side with the outright selection again.

Stewart Cink to beat Billy Andrade -110 @ SkyBet
Similar story here. Andrade's form has improved recently - last week's 8th place finish was his best result in over a year - but his recent course form is dire. Siding with the better player who has finished in the top-25 in each of the last three weeks.

Jim Furyk to beat Davis Love -115 @ WWTS
This line should be nearer -140. Furyk is the model of consistency this season, while Love has never been. He has won several times this season, but three of his last four finishes have been outside the top-25; Furyk has finished outside the top-25 three times in the whole of the 2003 season in U.S. events. With better course form as well, Furyk should be a much stronger favourite.
(available generally)

Jim Furyk to beat David Toms -125 @ Stan James
A hedge play on the outright selection, certainly, but also a recognition that Furyk is far more likely to win this event than Toms. This was reflected in the outright odds where Furyk's odds were half those of Toms, so the value in that market rested with Toms, but not here.

Jeff Sluman to beat Jesper Parnevik -110 @ BetInternet
Desperate times for Parnevik as he runs out of chances to maintain his playing privileges on this Tour. He did finish 5th in the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania last month, but it was very much the exception in a dire 2003 and he has since missed the cut once and finished 62nd in the other event. He has not played here since 2000 when he was a different player and the pressure should be too much for him to repeat his previous performances on this course. It will be a sad demise for a someone who was voted the most overrated player on Tour by his peers earlier this year.

Adding (1 unit unless stated):

Stephen Ames to beat Carl Paulson -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
I probably rate Ames more highly than he deserves, but I also think that Paulson is very opposable at the moment. He has missed four of his last six cuts and his h2h record against Ames is also very poor: 4-14-0 in the last year. A good chance this will be decided by Friday evening.

Kenny Perry to beat Rocco Mediate -140 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Mediate who was suffering with his bad last week and withdrew after 36 holes. Presumably, he has only made the long flight to North Carolina as he is defending champion. Perry has played very little since his blistering run of form from May to August, but would still give Mediate a tough match even if the latter were fully fit.

Final update:

Matchups: 5-1-0; +4.75 units

Allenby/Lickliter WON by 5
Furyk/Love WON by 6
Furyk/Toms LOST by 1
Sluman/Parnevik WON by 1
Ames/Paulson WON by 6
Perry/Mediate WON (Mediate wd)

Outrights: 2-1; +1.43 units

Choi 5th
Toms 37th
Allenby 6th

Nice profit on the event thanks to Allenby's last hole birdie to break out of the tie for the last place places. Choi had to share 5th with six others so won't even get back half the original stake, but with all three outright selections inside the top-11 with one round to play, it was the least return I was hoping to get. The matchups continue to be profitable.