Greater Hartford Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Stewart Cink to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Victor Chandler
A former winner of this title in 1997, he subsequently finished 2nd, 8th and 14th from 1998 to 2000. Not quite so impressive in the past two years, but this course form is notable. He did play in the British Open last week, but was never under the pressure of contention and closed with a fine 68 on Sunday so should be reasonably fresh and his form this year has been very consistent. He has four top-10 finishes in his last ten PGA Tour starts and has proved he is capable of adding to that total this week.

Fred Funk to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetInternet
Funk has also been extremely consistent on the PGA Tour this year. He had four top-10 finishes in six starts before heading for Royal St. George's and his missed cut last week will be of benefit for this week's event. This is a short, sub-7000 yard course on which he finished 4th in 1998. He hasn't been back since 2000, but is certainly playing well enough to secure another high finish.

Jonathan Kaye to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365
This was very nearly Kaye's breakthrough win last year. For 61 holes, he was in control of this event and only a suddenly-cold putter denied him victory. The fact that Mickelson holed out from the fairway on the 7th hole on Sunday to catch him certainly added a lot of pressure as the estimated 80,000 crowd were very vocal in their support for Mickelson. It was the fourth time that Kaye had finished 2nd (he would later finish 2nd in the Reno-Tahoe Open), but he did finally break his duck in the Buick Classic last month when he defeated John Rollins in a playoff. He did miss the cut last week in the British Open, but as with Funk, that is of benefit for this week and this looks a very big price for a player who had also finished in the top-30 in this event each year from 1999 to 2001 before going so close last year.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Jay Haas to beat Billy Andrade -111 @ BetandWin
Adding two matchup plays on Haas whose course form may only be average, but whose play has been rejuvenated in the last year or so. He missed the cut last week, so should not suffer too much fatigue and should return to the form that netted him top-10 finishes in his previous two events. He has finished ahead of Andrade in their last five common events and while Andrade has had some good finishes on this course, he is certainly much worse at the moment.

Jay Haas to beat Notah Begay -111 @ Paddy Power
The same can be said for Begay. He won this event in 2000 when in his prime and has fared reasonably well on his other two visits, but his current form also does not compare to Haas. He has missed six of his last ten cuts and in their eight common events this year, Begay has yet to finish ahead of Haas.

Billy Mayfair to beat Jay Don Blake -111 @ BetandWin
Similar story in this matchup. They have comparable course form, but incomparable current form. In their 12 common events this year, Mayfair leads 11-1-0 h2h. I'll take these odds for such an imbalanced matchup.

Adding (1 unit):

Fred Funk to beat Notah Begay -190 @ WSEX
Begay did win this event in 2000 before his career started to fall apart and although there have been signs of improvement recently, he is not the player he was three years ago. Funk has a 15-2-0 h2h record against Begay over the past year (4-0-0 in the past three months) and on this basis, these odds appeal, though only just!

Jay Haas to beat Dudley Hart -118 @ Easybets
Adding another play on Haas. Hart has made the cut on all his nine previous visits, but has only once been in contention (2001, finishing 3rd). Will side the player in better form: Haas has finished ahead of Hart in six of their last seven common events.

1st round plays (1 unit):

Tom Pernice to beat Shaun Micheel -115 @ Five Dimes
Hidemichi Tanaka to beat John Senden -107 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-1-0; -0.07 units

Pernice/Micheel WON by 1
Tanaka/Senden LOST by 3

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

Steve Allan to beat Rod Pampling -110 @ Sirbet and Carib [3 units]
Grant Waite to beat Mike Heinen -130 @ Five Dimes
Skip Kendall to beat Billy Mayfair -110 @ Sirbet and Carib

2nd round update: 0-3-0; -8.10 units

Allan/Pampling LOST by 4
Waite/Heinen LOST by 6
Kendall/Mayfair LOST by 1

Mid-point update:

Haas/Andrade Leads by 6
Haas/Begay Leads by 8
Mayfair/Blake LOST by 2
Funk/Begay LOST by 6
Haas/Hart WON (Hart withdrew)

Cink 49th
Funk mc
Kaye 33rd

Having a great week everywhere but in this event. Haas is the only good selection so far, though at least Kaye did show some bottle to come back into the tournament: 5th overnight, he was quickly 5-over-par for the round and recovered three shots in the last six holes. Need a lot more to get back in contention for a place win. Frustrating day with the 18-hole plays. Profitable everywhere else but the PGA Tour. Will give up on them for this Tour if I reach 50 units in the red ... a lot closer after today!

3rd round plays (1 unit):

Phil Mickelson to beat Stewart Cink -120 @ Sirbet
Tom Pernice to beat Mike Heinen -115 @ Five Dimes
Chris Riley to beat Per-Ulrik Johansson -111@ NordicBet

3rd round update: 2-1-0; +0.85 units

Mickelson/Cink WON by 1
Pernice/Heinen LOST by 1
Riley/Johansson WON by 5

4th round plays (1 unit):

Jay Williamson to beat Darron Stiles -128 @ Five Dimes
Per-Ulrik Johansson to beat Mike Heinen -125 @ Five Dimes
Phil Mickelson to beat Stewart Cink -133 @ NordicBet  (-135 @ Carib)

4th round update: 0-3-0; -3.86 units

Williamson/Stiles LOST by 3
Johansson/Heinen LOST by 5
Mickelson/Cink LOST by 7

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; -0.01 units

Haas/Andrade WON by 5
Haas/Begay WON by 1

18-holes: 3-8-0; -11.18 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Cink 21st
Kaye 36th

Kaye began his final round with a 10. Sums up my efforts in this event pretty well!