Honda Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power and BetDirect
Taking a chance on Singh's injury not being a factor this week. He has remained on the list for the Ford Championship but withdrew on Monday, so it seems that he is close to fitness and would certainly not risk further injury by playing this week with the Players Championship and Masters so near. If fit, he should go close. He has won two of his last five events and has finished in the top-3 in six of his last eleven starts, plus he is a former winner of this title (1999). The move to the small greens at Mirasol should also suit these players who have good greens in regulation stats.

John Huston to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetDirect and Five Dimes
Furyk's proficiency on Bermuda greens is well-documented and he also came away with the title last week. Huston's affinity for these greens is just as well-documented and hopefully he can go one better. All six of his Tour wins have been on Bermuda greens and five of them have been in Florida. With a runners-up finish already this season (Phoenix Open) and a top-15 berth last week, there is enough evidence that the rest of his game is ready for this week as well.

Robert Allenby to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Five Dimes
Putting is one area where Allenby struggles, though his win at the 2000 Houston Open was on Bermuda greens. Here, the move to smaller greens will benefit Allenby. He ranks in the top-10 on the Tour this year in driving distance and greens in regulation and is 5th in scoring average. He has finished in the top-6 in eight of his last fourteen strokeplay events so there can be no concerns over his form and he looks set for one of his better performances in Florida.

Adding (1 unit):

Bob Estes to win 33/1 e.w. available generally
Vijay has withdrawn so will replace him with Estes who had been 40/1 with Victor Chandler before they amended their odds after Singh's withdrawal. Still think is a large price for someone who is 2nd only to Singh in the 2003 greens in regulation stats, plus he is 2nd in the driving accuracy category as well. He has been in good form this year with two top-10 finishes in three strokeplay events and should be at ease with the Bermuda greens.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ BetandWin, Victor Chandler and Boyle
Tight course with lots of water around the greens ... just can't see someone who ranks 178th in driving accuracy and 155th in greens in regulation prospering on this type of course. A best finish of 57th in three Florida events is hardly encouraging for Baddeley either. Will continue to oppose him and particularly with a two-time winner of this event who is one of the few players who has had a chance to play at Mirasol prior to this week.

Jeff Sluman to beat Aaron Baddeley -115 @ WSEX
A tight course should also suit Sluman who ranks 26th in greens in regulation this year. It has been a very solid year so far with just one missed cut and no worse than 33rd in his other six starts this season. Sluman looks a good matchup player.

Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -105 @ Sirbet
Two young guns and can only see one winner. Rose has matured into an excellent golfer who very fairly finishes outside the top-10 all over the world. He should come close to securing another one this week, but this will be all over before the weekend. This is a widely available matchup and I am surprised to see Rose as the underdog.

Justin Rose to beat Cliff Kresge -111 @ BetandWin
Kresge looks a solid player who made significant advances last year and did finish in the top-10 last week, but his greens in regulation stats are weak and previous form in Florida was very poor. Just can't see anything more than a mid-table finish and that does not put him in the league of Justin Rose.

Arron Oberholser to beat Cliff Kresge -111 @ Ladbrokes
Some impressive performances by Oberholser in the past month have caught the eye. The 1st round leader in the Buick Invitational, he was 3rd at the cut in that event and 3rd at the cut in Tucson, but in both cases played very impressively to finish 4th and 6th respectively. Having never made a cut on the PGA Tour prior to this year and with his short-term career at stake, it would have been easy to collapse under the pressure. Could very well feature again this week.

1st round play (1 unit):

Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -112 @ Five Dimes

Adding, 1st round play (1 unit):

Justin Leonard to beat Jesper Parnevik -125 @ Sirbet

Adding, matchup play (1 unit):

Kenny Perry to beat Robert Gamez -125 @ Easybets
Don't understand this matchup. Perry is coming off a top-5 finish, while Gamez managed only to end a run of two missed cuts last week. Perry has made the cut in all but one of his last ten starts in Florida, while Gamez ended a run of five successive missed cuts in Florida last week. Perry also leads Gamez 11-2-0 h2h over the last 12 months, so there can't be much to misunderstand with this matchup.

1st round update: 1-1-0; -0.12 units

Rose/Baddeley LOST by 4
Leonard/Parnevik WON by 5

2nd round play (2 units):

Davis Love to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Sirbet

2nd round update: 1-0-0; +2.00 units

Love/Leonard WON by 5

Mid-point update:

Calcavecchia/Baddeley All Square
Sluman/Baddeley LOST by 4
Rose/Baddeley All Square
Rose/Kresge WON by 4
Oberholser WON by 5
Perry/Gamez Trails by 4

Huston 6th
Allenby 65th
Estes 10th

Decent position in the outrights with two chances of a top-5 finish and if Baddeley can fold over the weekend, this could yet be a profitable event despite capping it as being played on a tight, demanding course.

3rd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Kenny Perry to beat Chad Campbell -117 @ Five Dimes
Tom Byrum to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Five Dimes

Adding, 3rd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Bob Estes to beat Notah Begay -125 @ Sirbet [3 units]
Fred Funk to beat Hal Sutton -115 @ Sirbet [2 units]
Davis Love to beat Tim Herron -135 @ Sirbet [2 units]
Davis Love to beat Justin Leonard -125 @ Sirbet

3rd round update: 4-3-0; +0.83 units

Rose/Baddeley WON by 3
Perry/Campbell LOST by 2
Byrum/Begay WON by 1
Estes/Begay LOST by 1
Funk/Sutton WON by 3
Love/Herron WON by 5
Love/Leonard LOST by 1

4th round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Chris Riley to beat Notah Begay -115 @ Sirbet [3 units]
Jerry Kelly to beat Tom Byrum -125 @ Sirbet
Chris DiMarco to beat Chad Campbell -117 @ Five Dimes
Stewart Cink to beat Arron Oberholser -113 @ Five Dimes
Brad Faxon to beat Adam Scott -105 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Jim Furyk to beat Robert Gamez -135 @ Sirbet [3 units]

4th round update: 3-3-0; -1.72 units

Riley/Begay LOST by 3
Kelly/Byrum WON by 1
DiMarco/Campbell LOST by 1
Cink/Oberholser WON by 1
Faxon/Scott LOST by 11
Furyk/Gamez WON by 5

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-1; +0.60 units

Calcavecchia/Baddeley WON by 6
Rose/Baddeley TIED (Push)
Perry/Gamez LOST by 1

18-hole plays: 9-7-0; +0.99 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Huston 28th
Allenby 40th
Estes 14th

Small loss on the event with Baddeley sneaking up on the blindside to snatch a tie with Rose and Saturday being a bad day for the outrights. Was ahead in five of six 4th round matches with one hour to go, so could have been a very successful return to this type of betting. Will hopefully hang on next week ... and learn not to discount my 1st (Love 16/1) and 3rd (Leonard 50/1) highest ranked players after Singh!