Houston Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

David Toms to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
Not the longest of players, but has shown glimpses of his 2001 form in the past month to finish 2nd in the WGC Match Play and 8th in the Masters. With events in Texas largely falling to Texan course specialists, his record in this State is encouraging. Apart from a very consistent record in Texas events, he has finished in the top-4 three times in his last four starts in the Lone Star State.

Jerry Kelly to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Kelly record in this region is nowhere near as impressive, but in what looks like an open event, this is a large price for a two-time winner in 2002. He has five top-10 finishes from ten starts this year and is simply overpriced.

Fred Couples to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and BlueSq
Was really looking for place-only terms for Freddie, but with a best of 8/1 for 5 places, then there is little wasted in taking the each-way at these odds instead. He has been in rejuvenated form in the last two months with four top-15 finishes in his last five events and in the event that he finished outside the top-15, the Masters, he was well-placed after 54 holes. His record in Texas is encouraging as well - he finished 2nd in the Texas Open last year and has been 3rd in this event on two occasions. He did go to college in Houston, though that was a long time ago!

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Opposing Baddeley yet again who hasn't played competitively for a month and had his return delayed last week by spraining his ankle. But this is not an injury play, Calc leads Baddeley 4-0-0 h2h in the last three months and with Baddeley having missed the cut in both his Texan events to date, I don't see a big week from the young Australian.

David Toms to beat Chad Campbell -120 @ Bet365
Siding with Toms again who tends to play better in the Southern States against Campbell who has been more consistent in the past few months, but whose Texan form is not particularly good. He did win the 2001 Permian Basin Open on the Buy.com Tour, but little else even this is his home State. Should finish top-30 yet again, but I think it will be Toms that will be in contention on Sunday.

Adding (1 unit):

K.J. Choi to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Ladbrokes
Will also add Choi to oppose Baddeley. The Korean is coming off a top-15 finish in the Masters and has been very solid all year long. Twice a winner on Tour last year, he is the more likely title contender this week.

Jerry Kelly to beat Aaron Baddeley -137 @ Boyle
Also adding one of the outright selections against Baddeley who is returning from injury. Kelly was also a two-time winner last year and it is the proven winners who have been ruling the roost in 2003 rather than the Tour maidens.

Fred Funk to beat Hal Sutton -115 @ Intertops (-111 @ BetandWin but ties lose)
Looking to oppose Sutton as well this week as he surprised many that he was in contention for so long last week. He was very unlucky that his ball plugged in the bunker on the last hole and it cost him a place in the playoff, but I can't see him being so close this week and there could be a letdown from missing out in that way. It was the first time in two years that he had finished in the top-10 of an event, but age has not caught up with Funk quite so fast. He should prevail in the match of former Houston Open champions.

John Huston to beat Hal Sutton -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Bermuda greens typical mean support for Huston and his record in Texas is further proof. He is regularly competitive and that is not something that can be said for Sutton. Will definitely side with the younger man at these odds.

1st round plays (1 unit):

Carlos Franco to beat Briny Baird -105 @ Sirbet and Carib
Tom Pernice to beat Briny Baird -110 @ Five Dimes and Moneyplays
Fred Funk to beat Justin Leonard +120 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 2-1-0; +1.15 units

Franco/Baird LOST by 6
Pernice/Baird WON by 1
Funk/Leonard WON by 3

2nd round plays (1 unit):

Jose Coceres to beat David Berganio -102 @ Five Dimes
Alex Cejka to beat John Daly -117 @ Five Dimes
Tim Herron to beat Trevor Immelman -115 @ Sirbet
Duffy Waldorf to beat Trevor Immelman -117 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 1-3-0; -2.49 units

Coceres/Berganio WON by 2
Cejka/Daly LOST by 1
Herron/Immelman LOST by 3
Waldorf/Immelman LOST by 6

Mid-point update:

Calcavecchia/Baddeley WON (Baddeley withdrew after the 1st round)
Toms/Campbell Leads by 4
Choi/Baddeley WON
Kelly/Baddeley WON
Funk/Sutton WON by 10
Huston/Sutton LOST by 4

Toms 7th
Kelly 19th
Couples 1st

Promising position at the cut with only one matchup remaining and all but one victorious and all three outrights in the hunt. Kelly had been in the top-5 until dropping four late shots, but should get a return from at least one of these from this position.

3rd round plays (1 unit):

Woody Austin to beat Geoff Ogilvy -108 @ Five Dimes
Olin Browne to beat Ian Leggatt -122 @ Five Dimes
David Toms to beat Vijay Singh +115 @ Carib  (-108 @ Five Dimes)

3rd round update: 1-2-0; -1.08 units

Austin/Ogilvy LOST by 1
Browne/Leggatt WON by 2
Toms/Singh LOST by 3

4th round plays (1 unit):

Deane Pappas to beat Ian Leggatt -115 @ Five Dimes
Stuart Appleby to beat Steve Flesch -115 @ Five Dimes
Marco Dawson to beat Jeff Brehaut -115 @ Five Dimes
Alex Cejka to beat John Daly -115 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 1-3-0; -2.45 units

Pappas/Leggatt LOST by 2
Appleby/Flesch WON by 2
Dawson/Brehaut LOST by 1
Cejka/Daly LOST by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +1.69 units

Toms/Campbell LOST by 5

18-holes: 5-9-0; -4.87 units

Outrights: 1-2; +29.25 units

Toms 49th
Kelly 31st
Couples 1st

Thankyou Bet365! Had he been 40/1, I would have taken the place-only on Couples because I never really expected him to win the event! made up for the late reversals in the final round plays. Will persevere with the 18-hole plays for a few more weeks, they can't continue this way.

On another note, this is a very strange season for me. Ignoring the 18-hole selections, the PGA Tour selections are up 72 units, while the selections for the other Tours are down 41 units. I have always found the European, LPGA and Champions easier and more profitable to cap, but they are all in debit this year. Very strange and not helpful when you weight your PGA Tour selections by the smallest amount!