The Masters

Outright play (1 unit):

Davis Love to finish in the top-four 8/1 @ Sirbet
Adding a rare ante play following Love's extremely impressive display at Sawgrass. He is generally down to 20-25/1 and will certainly not get any larger before Masters week. He is a two-time winner this season already and should have won the Honda Classic but faltered over the last nine holes against Leonard. With a very solid record of contenting at Augusta, including 2nd in 1999, this could be the year he finally wins this title. Plus, with Els and Singh recovering from injuries and Mickelson returning from the birth of his son, there could be a shortage of real challenger to Woods. However, Tiger who will find Augusta set up much more for his game than Sawgrass and he will remain the one to beat. With prohibitive odds expected for the 'w/o Woods' market, taking the place-only option.

Adding (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 40/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Decent record at Augusta and playing extremely well. He has finished in the top-10 in six of eight starts this year, including top-5 in each of his last three starts. Particularly impressive as these have been in the stronger events this year. Missed the cut last year, but had top-15 finishes in each of the previous four years and looked destined to repeat that feat again. Not a power player, but he has shown this season how well he thinks his way around a course - he is 136th in driving distance this year, but ranks 4th in par-5 performance! He ranks #1 in greens in regulation this year and that is particularly important around this course - putting is a lot easier when there is some control over the iron-play. Looks big odds for someone playing so well.

Adding (1 unit):

Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Impressive final-round comeback last week at the BellSouth Classic to finish in a tie for 3rd place. It meant that he has finished in the top-4 in five of seven strokeplay events this year and that is Major form! Had played poorly at Augusta until last year when he should have won, but found Tiger unstoppable on the final day. He is upbeat about his game at the moment and has the right attributes - long off the tee and very good greens in regulation stats - to repeat last year's performance.

Adding (1 unit):

Chris DiMarco to win 'Top U.S. Player w/o Woods' 20/1 e.w. @ William Hill
In good form with two top-10 finishes in his last three events to add to his two top-3 finishes on the West Coast Swing and has excellent course form. In his two previous starts, he has finished 10th and 12th and importantly that meant 2nd in this category last year and 6th in this category in 2001. Like Furyk, he won't power the ball around Augusta, but has enough guile around the greens to keep his score intact.

Adam Scott to win 'Top Rest of World Player' 16/1 e.w. @ Tote
Had initially looked at Price for this category (25/1 Stan James), but the heavy rain in the first part of this week should take the veteran out of the equation. Not so for the Tiger-like Australian who has been in excellent form since the second half of last year and finished 3rd in the World Matchplay last month. On his Masters debut last year he finished 9th and this looks an event in which he will prosper for many years.

Darren Clarke to win 'Top European' 7/1 @ Gamebookers
Did look at Harrington and Rose for this category, but Harrington is very prone to mental 'away days', if not whole weeks, and am backing Rose elsewhere. In contrast, Clarke has become extremely consistent and that is certainly a new verb for this player - he has finished in the top-11 in seven of last nine starts, including an impressive 6th in the Players Championship two weeks ago. He is also very long off the tee at the moment - in his last four PGA Tour events, he has ranked 4th, 7th, 2nd and 2nd in driving distance and that will be particularly useful around a wet Augusta course. He looks set for another good week around this course.

Justin Rose to win 'Top Masters Debutant' 7/1 @ Paddy Power
Not many in this category once the amateurs are taken out and Chad Campbell does look the player to beat in this group, but siding with Rose at better odds. Like Clarke, he has hitting the ball particularly long this year, with top-20 standings in driving distance in each of his starts in 2003 and he has shown with his performances in the British Open and the NEC Invitational last year that he a 'big event' player. This is an event in which Europeans have played well and Rose looks the perfect player to continue that tradition.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Tom Lehman to beat Stuart Appleby -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Lehman has been more consistent this year - just one missed cut from seven PGA Tour starts against two from six for Appleby - but more importantly, has a far superior course history than the Australian. Six top-20 finishes in the last ten years compares very favourably against none from six, including four missed cuts.

Phil Mickelson to beat David Duval -200 @ Moneyplays
Wouldn't normally go as low as these odds, but opposing Duval has been like making money - he has made just one cut in six this year and it is unknown how much he has recovered from vertigo. Mickelson's 2nd lapse last week can be ignored - rustiness or Augusta on his mind - and he can boast top-10s finishes in the past four years here.

Nick Faldo to beat Paul Lawrie -118 @ Easybets
Good performance by Lawrie last week, but he has never made the cut in three attempts at Augusta. Faldo continues to impress in the big events and while he is far too short off the tee to contend this week, he will not embarrass himself. He also leads Lawrie 9-1-0 h2h in PGA Tour and WGC events over the past three years.

Nick Price to beat Nick Faldo -111 @ Ladbrokes
Had the course been dry I would have seriously considered Olympic's 30/1 for price to finish in the top-four, but he is too short off the tee for a wet Augusta. He is still in good form with a number of top-10 finishes this year and has a better record around this course since Faldo last won this title in 1996.

Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir -118 @ Easybets
There are signs that Weir's early season form is tapering off, while that is not the case for Furyk with his top-5 finishes in his last three events. In the same stretch, Weir has finished 14th, 27th and then missed cut. Furyk also has a decisive edge in course form with last year's missed cut being the only time he has finished behind Weir. Can't see it happening this year.

Toshimitsu Izawa to beat Shingo Katayama -111 @ Paddy Power
Apart from a 4th place finish in the 2001 PGA Championship, Katayama has done little on American soil. He has finished behind Izawa on both occasions that they have played in this event and over the past three years he trails Izawa 1-7-0 h2h on PGA Tour and WGC events.

Lee Janzen to beat Ian Woosnam -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [2 units]
Janzen showed good form last week before failing in the last round and while he has very little chance of a repeat finish this week, he should finish ahead of Woosnam as he has done in the past two seasons here. Woosnam is some way part his best outside the European Tour and so trails Janzen 6-1-0 h2h in PGA Tour and WGC events over the past three years.

Loren Roberts to beat Mark O'Meara -118 @ Easybets
Roberts has made all five cuts this year and finished 3rd in 2000. He won't be anywhere near repeating that feat, but against a player who has missed four of eight cuts this year and against whom he heads 8-1-1 h2h over the past year, he should be an easy winner.

Adam Scott to beat Justin Rose -125 @ Expekt
Scott is in slightly the better form - he leads Rose 3-1-0 in their last four events - and he does have course experience with his top-10 finish last year. Aces go -150 for Scott in this matchup, which would be more in line with my own odds.

Adding (1 unit):

Phil Mickelson to beat Bob Estes -170 @ WSEX
Not pretty odds, but a very nice matchup. Estes is too short for the lengthened and sodden Augusta on view this week - he gives up over 30 yards per drive to Lefty whose record on this course is very impressive. Apart from their differences in form on this course - Estes has beaten Mickelson once in five common starts - Mickelson has dominated this matchup over the past twelve months with the head-to-head reading 11-1-2.

Nick Price to beat Scott Hoch -111 @ BetandWin
Hoch's wrist is still causing him pain and while the injured golfer should normally be avoided, it is also going to be cold, wet and unpleasant for the first two days. These are the conditions that Hoch hates and it will be no surprise to see him out of the event at the cut. Can't see the same happening to Price.

John Huston to beat John Rollins -145 @ WSEX
Three missed cuts and two top-10 finishes in his last five events sum up Rollins! Good for outrights, but opposable for matchups and particularly on a course he has never played until this week. Quite the opposite with Huston who has played in this event 12 times and made the cut on every occasion, finishing in the top-25 on nine occasions.

Adding outright (1 unit):

Australia (Allenby/Scott) to win the 'Mini World Cup' 5/1 @ Five Dimes and Stan James
I would place this team as favourites in this group as they are the only team who do not have at least player who will struggle to make the cut. Goosen and Mickelson should finish in the top-10, but it is difficult to see Clark and Mayfair playing at the weekend. The Aussie pairing are both long off the tee and in good form. Should get one if not both them of them in the top-20 which will be plenty enough for another Aussie World Cup win.

Adding matchup (1 unit):

Phil Mickelson to beat Mike Weir -130 @ Olympic and Moneyplays
Opposed Weir with Furyk as his current form seems to be tapering off and his course form is hardly comparable. Will do the same with Mickelson whose course form is even more impressive - he has beaten Weir on every occasion they have both played at Augusta. Five Dimes price this -145 which looks fairer for a wet week at Augusta.

Props (1 unit):

Players to miss the cut:

Rich Beem -125 @ Centrebet
Angel Cabrera +120 @ Victor Chandler
David Duval +110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Sergio Garcia +160 @ Aces
Scott Hoch +110 @ Olympic
Miguel Angel Jimenez +120 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Colin Montgomerie +135 @ Five Dimes and Aces
David Toms +190 @ Carib
Ian Woosnam -138 @ Stan James

Vijay Singh to shoot over 71.5 in the 1st round -140 @ Five Dimes, Carib and Aces

1st round plays (1 unit):

Kenny Perry to beat Stuart Appleby -123 @ Five Dimes
Brad Faxon to beat Chad Campbell -120 @ Five Dimes and Moneyplays
Peter Lonard to beat Chad Campbell -108 @ Five Dimes
Chris DiMarco to beat Charles Howell -115 @ Five Dimes
Retief Goosen to beat David Toms -140 @ Moneyplays
Retief Goosen (+0.5) to beat Jim Furyk +110 @ Sirbet
Tom Lehman to beat Lee Janzen -130 @ Five Dimes
Phil Mickelson to beat Mike Weir -128 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 5-4-0; +0.19 units

Perry/Appleby WON by 1
Faxon/Campbell WON by 4
Lonard/Campbell LOST by 1
DiMarco/Howell LOST by 9
Goosen/Toms LOST by 2
Goosen/Furyk WON by 0.5
Lehman/Janzen WON by 3
Mickelson/Weir LOST by 3
Singh >71.5 WON by 1.5

No 2nd round plays.

Mid-point update:

Lehman/Appleby WON by 2
Mickelson/Duval WON by 18
Faldo/Lawrie Trails by 3
Price/Faldo Leads by 2
Furyk/Weir Trails by 7
Izawa/Katayama LOST by 8
Janzen/Woosnam WON by 3
Roberts/O'Meara All Square
Scott/Rose All Square
Mickelson/Estes Leads by 4
Price/Hoch WON by 5
Huston/Rollins LOST by 11
Mickelson/Weir Trails by 5

Cut Props: 5-4-0; +1.50 units

Beem 21st LOST
Cabrera 24th LOST
Duval 85th WON
Garcia 24th LOST
Hoch 50th WON
Jimenez 60th WON
Montgomerie 62nd WON
Toms 5th LOST
Woosnam 62nd WON

Love 37th
Furyk 10th
Goosen 24th
DiMarco (Top U.S. w/o Woods) mc
Scott (Top R.O.W.) 12th
Clarke (Top Euro) 1st
Rose (Top Rookie) 11th
Australia (Mini World Cup) 8th

Profitable event at the cut and will gladly take that at the end of any rain-affected event. Much will depend on whether Weir comes back to the field or not

3rd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Darren Clarke to beat Mike Weir +110 @ Moneyplays
Jim Furyk to beat Sergio Garcia -110 @ Moneyplays
Loren Roberts to beat Mark O'Meara +130 @ Moneyplays [3 units]
Bob Estes to beat Shingo Katayama -150 @ Moneyplays [3 units]
Angel Cabrera to beat Rich Beem -140 @ Moneyplays

Adding (1 unit unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Adam Scott -107 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Scott Verplank to beat Justin Rose -108 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 3-2-2; +1.00 units

Clarke/Weir LOST by 3
Furyk/Garcia WON by 3
Roberts/O'Meara LOST by 6
Estes/Katayama WON by 2
Cabrera/Beem Tied (Push)
Allenby/Scott Tied (Push)
Verplank/Rose WON by 1

4th round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Ricky Barnes to beat Hunter Mahan -140 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Chris Riley to beat Angel Cabrera -110 @ Moneyplays [2 units] [-115 @ Five Dimes]
Fred Couples to beat Mark O'Meara -150 @ Moneyplays
Bob Estes to beat Nick Faldo -127 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Jim Furyk to beat Len Mattiace -170 @ Moneyplays [2 units]
Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir -118 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Davis Love to beat Retief Goosen -130 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Scott Verplank to beat Justin Rose -112 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Adding (1 unit unless stated):

K.J. Choi to beat Mark O'Meara -130 @ Olympic [3 units]
Rocco Mediate to beat Scott McCarron -135 @ Intertops [2 units]
Chris Riley to beat Ricky Barnes -160 @ Intertops
Davis Love to beat Scott Verplank -155 @ Intertops

4th round update: 3-8-1; -14.30 units

Barnes/Mahan WON by 3
Riley/Cabrera LOST by 3
Couples/O'Meara LOST by 6
Estes/Faldo WON by 2
Furyk/Mattiace LOST by 3
Furyk/Weir TIED (Push)
Love/Goosen LOST by 1
Verplank/Rose WON by 8
Choi/O'Meara LOST by 2
Mediate/McCarron LOST by 2
Riley/Barnes LOST by 2
Love/Verplank LOST by 2

Final update:

Matchups/props: 12-10-0; +2.10 units

Faldo/Lawrie LOST by 5
Price/Faldo WON by 2
Furyk/Weir LOST by 3
Roberts/O'Meara LOST by 7
Scott/Rose WON by 4
Mickelson/Estes WON by 9
Mickelson/Weir LOST by 2

18-holes: 11-14-3; -13.11 units

Outrights: 1-7; -2.50 units

Love 15th
Furyk 4th
Goosen 13th
Scott (Top R.O.W.) 8th
Clarke (Top Euro) 3rd
Rose (Top Rookie) 7th
Australia (Mini World Cup) 6th

Break-even event apart from the final day 18-hole plays ... looks like I need a post-mortem on why I liked so many of them!