Mercedes Championship

Outright plays (0.5 units - half-plays for first 4 weeks of season):

Ernie Els to win 13/2 @ Pinnacle
Missed the 8/1 available at Eurobet when they Mickelson was still in the field ... had six week to prepare for this event and still end up missing the boat! Still good value for a player with a proven track record in Hawaii and in an event lacking its usual depth. Apart form winning the Grand Slam of Golf at Poipu Bay in 1997, Els has finished 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 3rd in Hawaiian events in the last two years, of which two of the top-3s were on this course. Had an easy schedule at the end of last year and played some of the best golf of his career when winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge on his last outing. The weather would not have hampered his winter practicing and he looks to have a very good chance this week.

Jim Furyk to win 14/1 e.w. @ Olympic
Good experience in Hawaii, and in this event in particular, is important this week and Furyk can match Els in that respect. He has won three times in Hawaii, including this event in 2001, finished in the top-4 either side of that victory. He kept himself busy in the close season with good finishes in the Nedbank Challenge and Williams World Challenge and in a field that boasts so many rookies, he can certainly secure another top-4 finish for the place win.

Bob Estes to win 40/1 e.w. @ William Hill or Tote (5 places)
Estes completes a trio of players who putt well on Bermuda greens. He finished 10th here last year on his debut, but had finished 4th on his previous visit to Hawaii, the 1997 Kapalua International. Was disappointing in the close season events, but had a succession of top-10 finishes at the end of last season and if he can rediscover any sort of that form he could sneak a top-5 place in this rather weak season opener.

Matchup plays (0.5 units unless stated):

Bob Estes to beat Rich Beem -111 @ Ladbrokes [1 unit]
A runners-up spot in the farcical Australian Open does not disguise a very poor final three months to the 2002 season for Beem. He even finished last in Williams World Challenge on his last outing. His record in Hawaii is not impressive either. Two missed cuts and a best of 53rd in four appearances in the Hawaiian Open and a last place finish in his previous Mercedes appearance is hardly supportive. He also finished last in the 2002 Grand Slam of Golf held at Poipu Bay. Backing an outright selection with ease.

Rocco Mediate to beat Rich Beem -111 @ BetandWin
Plays little, but contends when he does, Mediate should have the better of Beem this week. He beat him by 14 shots in 2000 and finished 6th last year.

Bob Estes to beat Len Mattiace -111 @ William Hill and SIA
Also siding with Estes to beat Mattiace who played very poorly in the second half of last season. After his win in the St. Jude Classic, Mattiace recorded just one top-20 in his remaining eleven starts of 2002 and that was in the limited-field Tour Championship (18th). With an unimpressive performance in the Hawaiian Open bar a runners-up spot in 1999, he looks one to oppose this week.

Dan Forsman to beat Craig Perks -118 @ Expekt
Perks is another to oppose this week. Had the AmEx Championship not been a limited-field event (he finished 61st of 65), he would have missed the cut in his last starts events of 2002. He has also missed the cut both times he has played in the Hawaiian Open. Forsman won't win, but at least he is capable making cuts each week.

Sergio Garcia to beat Charles Howell -120 @ Bet365
Usually stay away from defending champions, but he does have an advantage in course knowledge, is the far better putter which will be important on these huge Bermuda greens and should be a much shorter price if the outright market is to be believed.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; +0.81 units

Estes/Beem WON by 19
Mediate/Beem WON by 21
Estes/Mattiace WON by 9
Forsman/Perks LOST by 2
Garcia/Howell LOST by 5

Outrights: 1-2; +2.25 units

Els 1st
Furyk 6th
Estes 6th

Two events and two winners picked ... certainly happy with the start to this season! A little disappointed that neither Furyk nor Estes secured a place finish - they both finished one shot short - particularly as Estes hit 68 of 72 greens in regulation, the top-ranked all week. There's always one that gets away each week