Greater Milwaukee Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Kenny Perry to win 10/1 e.w. available generally
It is certainly unusual to see Kenny Perry heading the betting for a PGA Tour event and I would certainly not back him win-only, but his form in the past seven weeks has been quite staggering. He embarrassed the rest of the field for three days at the Colonial and the Memorial, which allowed him the luxury of lapses of concentration in the final round each time. He then finished 3rd in the U.S. Open and now returns to a course on which he has finished in the top-5 in each of the last three years. He has not played since Olympia Fields, but with any semblance of his May/June form, he should warrant the favourite's tag.

Tim Herron to win 25/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
'Lumpy' had a semblance of Perry's form back in February when he recorded back-to-back top-3 finishes and really should have won the Bob Hope Classic. He did finish 4th in the Honda Classic in March, but then struggled to find his game. His 14th place finish at the St. Jude Classic was his best finish since the Honda Classic. Not much support for his selection on current form, but his form had been comparable in the run-up to this event in the last two years and he finished in the top-3 on both occasions. Against this field, he should fancy his chances to repeat the feat.

Skip Kendall to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
It has been a lean couple of years for Kendall and he is an unlikely candidate for the outright market, but he has been showing good form recently. He finished 4th in the Buick Classic, having been the 3rd round leader alongside Kaye and Rollins, and was 13th in the Western Open last week. Like the other two selections, he has good course form - top-10 in four of his last five visits and top-15 in five of his last six - and while he is an unlikely winner, I was saying the same thing about Perry until a couple of months ago!

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Stephen Ames to beat Brenden Pappas -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Neither has made a cut in this event, but big difference in class between these two and Ames is far more likely to finally make it to the weekend this week. He has missed cut two cuts in his last nine events, but Pappas' early season form has disappeared and he has made four four of his last ten cuts. Ames leads 6-1-0 h2h over the past three months and should improve that stat this week.

Skip Kendall to beat Woody Austin -118 @ Centrebet
Siding again with Kendall who grew up playing on this course. Austin has been playing some solid golf late, but missed the cut last week after shooting 79 in the 2nd round and has finished behind Kendall in each of the last four years here.

K.J. Choi to beat Robert Damron -110 @ BetInternet
Siding with a player who missed the cut last week, but he had just come back from winning the SK Telecom Open on the Davidoff Tour the week before. His form is good and he finished 5th last year; he should beat Damron who will be playing his sixth event in six weeks, seven if you count the 36-hole U.S. Open qualifier at Woodmont. That's a tiring schedule!

Kenny Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -118 @ Centrebet
This is a widely available matchup, though Perry is priced as low as -155 (Olympic) and is generally a much heavier favourite than with Centrebet. Kelly did finish 3rd last week, but had missed his previous two cuts and the Wisconsin native does not have a good record on this course in the last three years. Will side with the tournament favourite again.

Joey Sindelar to beat Steve Stricker -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing another Wisconsin native here. Stricker may have a good record in this event, but he has missed ten of fifteen cuts this year and since his season-opening 18th place at the Phoenix Open, his best finish has been 42nd. In this course, he surely can't be competitive and Sindelar is favoured. He also has a good record on this course - four top-10 finishes in eight visits - and has been playing well in the past two months with four of five cuts made and a top-3 finish at the Buick Classic. No comparison in form.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

J.P. Hayes +.5 to beat Rocco Mediate -115 @ WSEX [2 units]
Kenny Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -127 @ Five Dimes
Tim Herron to beat Loren Roberts -127 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

2nd round update: 1-1-1; -0.54 units

Hayes/Mediate WON by 2.5
Perry/Kelly TIED (Push)
Herron/Roberts LOST by 9

Mid-point update:

Ames/Pappas Trails by 1
Kendall/Austin WON by 6
Choi/Damron WON by 10
Perry/Kelly Trails by 3
Sindelar/Stricker WON by 8

Perry 12th
Herron mc
Kendall 66th

Three wins already with the matchups and two days to recover small deficits. Looks promising and Perry can certainly beat the rest of the players on the leaderboard if his putter defreezes.

3rd round plays (1 unit):

Mark Calcavecchia to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ WSEX
Kenny Perry to beat Jerry Kelly -125 @ Five Dimes
Rocco Mediate to beat J.P. Hayes -110 @ Five Dimes
Harrison Frazar to beat Peter Jacobsen -108 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 3-1-0; +1.90 units

Calcavecchia/Franco LOST by 1
Perry/Kelly WON by 4
Mediate/Hayes WON by 1
Frazar/Jacobsen WON by 6

4th round plays (1 unit):

Rocco Mediate to beat J.P. Hayes -110 @ Five Dimes
Greg Chalmers to beat Notah Begay -110 @ Five Dimes
Brett Quigley to beat Richard S. Johnson -120 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 1-2-0; -1.20 units

Mediate/Hayes LOST by 2
Chalmers/Begay LOST by 4
Quigley/Johnson WON by 2

Final update:

Matchups: 4-1-0; +2.63 units

Ames/Pappas LOST by 7
Perry/Kelly WON by 6

18-holes: 5-4-1; +0.16 units

Outrights: 1-2; +4.25 units

Perry 1st
Kendall 52nd

Very satisfying event. The 18-hole were in profit for the first time in a while, the matchups continued their good run and Perry won albeit as tournament favourite. He did need some help from a nervous Steve Allan after Perry had faltered early in the back nine, but he did close out like a champion. Three wins in four starts ... who would have thought!