HP Classic of New Orleans

Outright plays (1 unit):

Phil Mickelson to win 12/1 e.w. @ Olympic and Sirbet [.5 units to win; .5 units to 'show']
Very difficult player to call the right week, but if he can reproduce any of the form he showed at the Masters or in any of his three top-10 finishes this year, he should go very close. Nicklaus-designed courses are perfect for his game. The wide fairways attract power-hitting off the tee and the greens reward his high ball flight. It took a great weekend performance by Toms two years ago to deny him victory and this could be the week he makes amends.

David Toms to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Toms had won four times on Tour before his 2001 victory in this event, but it was the way in which he beat Mickelson that really propelled Toms to the fore on the PGA Tour. Three months later he would win the PGA Championship, again in a head-to-head with Mickelson, and then wrapped up the Michelob Championship at the end of the season. Apart from being held in his home State, this event has good memories for Toms and this week should see a much greater effort from him. He has played very well in the WGC Match Play and the Masters and was in a good position at the cut last week before fading away. That shouldn't happen this week.

Stewart Cink to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Not such a great record in this event. He missed the cut in 1997 and finished 31st last year, but he was in poor form at the time having missed three of his last four cuts. The contrast could not be starker this year with three top-10 finishes in his last four starts so a much better finish is expected this year. Would have looked for place-only odds, but after Boom-Boom last week and Ladbrokes' stand-out price, will hope for another unexpected win.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Len Mattiace to beat John Daly -111 @ Boyle [2 units]
Daly surprised many with his top-10 finish last week - in seven previous starts this year, he had yet to finish in the top-50 of any event. But with a record of two missed cuts and a 51st position in his three previous visits over ten years, there seems little reason to expect another good week from him. Will easily side with a player who finished 2nd in the Masters earlier this month.

Steve Flesch to beat Robert Gamez -118 @ Easybets
Flesch has been in good form of late, securing three top-10 finishes in his last five starts. Still no top-5 positions so he continues to frustrate in terms of outright betting, but he is fairly dependable for matchups. With finishes of 2nd, 2nd and 6th from 1998 to 2000 on this course, this could be another close week. Not expecting so from Gamez who has missed the cut twice and finishes 74th on his only other visit to English Turn in ten years. He obviously avoids this course and with good reason, so is easily opposed.

Fred Funk to beat Robert Gamez -111 @ Ladbrokes
Opposing him with Funk who is not typically suited to Nicklaus-designed courses, but has made the cut in four of five visits and in all but one (of 12) starts in 2003. Looks set to grind his way to victory in this matchup.

Kirk Triplett to beat Harrison Frazar -125 @ BetInternet
Both players have a good history at English Turn. Frazar had three top-5 finishes from 1999 to 2001, while Triplett has three top-10s and only one missed cuts in his last ten visits, but Frazar's game is in disarray and Triplett's if firmly not. While Frazar has failed to finish in the top-60 in any of his last seven events, Triplett has had a succession of top-15s this season, including 2nd in the Bay Hill Invitational last month.

Charles Howell to beat Geoff Ogilvy -133 @ Easybets
There is a tempting case for Ogilvy in the outright markets this week - he has finished in the top-10 in his last two events and was 2nd last year, but Howell is simply the better player and should, on average, win this matchup many more times than not. He has finished 16th and 7th in this event without a round over par, whereas Ogilvy missed the cut in 2001 following a 2nd round 80. The Australian could have another great week, though he should need one to finish ahead of Howell.

1st round plays (1 unit):

Stuart Appleby to beat Scott McCarron -115 @ Sirbet
Cameron Beckman to beat Briny Baird +130 @ Five Dimes
Fred Funk to beat Carlos Franco +105 @ Five Dimes

1st round update: 1-2-0; -1.10 units

Appleby/McCarron LOST by 1
Beckman/Baird LOST by 1
Funk/Franco WON by 2

2nd round plays (1 unit):

Stephen Ames to beat Jeff Sluman +102 @ Five Dimes
Briny Baird to beat Fred Funk +115 @ Sirbet
Billy Mayfair to beat Paul Stankowski -120 @ Five Dimes

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +0.97 units

Ames/Sluman WON by 1
Baird/Funk WON by 2
Mayfair/Stankowski LOST by 2

Mid-point update:

Mattiace/Daly WON (Daly withdrew)
Flesch/Gamez WON by 3
Funk/Gamez LOST by 2
Triplett/Frazar WON (Frazar disqualified)
Howell/Ogilvy Trails by 4

Mickelson 57th
Toms mc
Cink 32nd

Profitable look to the matchups, but the outrights have been far from consistent. Toms and Mickelson had been highly placed in the 2nd round before falling back and Cink had been 3rd after the 1st round. Not much hope now, so looks a break-even event at best.

3rd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Todd Barranger to beat Akio Sadakata -122 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Phil Mickelson to beat Charles Howell -180 @ Moneyplays
Jeff Sluman to beat Geoff Ogilvy -107 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

3rd round update: 2-1-0; +0.56 units

Barranger/Sadakata LOST by 4
Mickelson/Howell WON by 2
Sluman/Ogilvy WON by 3

4th round plays (2 units):

Vijay Singh to beat Briny Baird -140 @ Sirbet
Stewart Cink to beat Lee Westwood -115 @ Sirbet
Davis Love to beat Scott McCarron -135 @ Sirbet

4th round update: 1-1-1; -0.80 units

Singh/Baird LOST by 2
Cink/Westwood WON by 1
Love/McCarron TIED (Push)

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; +1.56 units

Howell/Ogilvy LOST by 4

18-holes: 6-5-1; -0.37 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Mickelson 67th
Cink 30th

Small loss on the event, primarily from some poor outrights. Did expect the final round plays to cover them; they should finish in profit at least seven times out of ten, but not this time.