Nissan Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Davis Love to win 18/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Five Dimes
The course does not favour his long-hitting, but he does have a good record in this event with three top-3 finishes in his last seven visits. He also has a liking for Californian courses - his last three victories have been in this State. His game has improved considerably in the last eight months and while he may not repeat his victory at Pebble Beach two weeks ago, he is a far more consistent player than he was 12 months ago.

Chris DiMarco to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Dimarco has also become a very consistent player on add to his ability to win events - one in each of the last three seasons. He played the first four weeks of the season, securing two top-3 finishes, and should be refreshed after a two-week break. His 6th place finish last year was his best performance at Riviera and with the emphasis more on approach play and the short game this week, he looks a contender.

Rocco Mediate to finish in the top-five 12/1 @ Five Dimes and SkyBet
Very large price for someone who has finished 2nd, 28th and 5th this season. He may have withdrawn from last week's event, but given the weather forecast in the middle of the week, he had good reason to concentrate on this week instead. His course form is good with just one missed cut in his last ten visits and while his three top-6 finishes were a decade ago, he hasn't finished outside the top-30 in the last four years. Unless he sustained an injury last week, this is a hard price to ignore.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Nick Price to beat Luke Donald -111 @ Paddy Power
Looking for a good week from Price who has been a regular competitor in this event and in 2001 looked to be securing his second top-5 finish at Riviera in three years until a poor final round. This is only his third start of the season, having opened in the Mercedes Championship and then finished 4th in the Dimension Data pro-am, so will be fresh, in good form and relishing the prospect of playing a course under 7,100 yards in length. Opposing Donald who had good finishes in the Phoenix Open and the Buick Invitational, but did the same in these events last year and missed the cut at Riviera.

Nick Price to beat Scott McCarron -111 @ BetandWin
McCarron used to play some his UCLA matches here and he can boast a good record in this event. He has never missed the cut here and has two top-10 finishes from six starts, including 2nd last year. But this course demands good iron play and a good short game and these are the areas in which McCarron does not specialise so when he is playing well, he can play well around this course. But he is not playing well at the moment and he could struggle to keep up his run of weekends at the Riviera.

Adding (1 unit):

Nick Price to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ Boyle
Also siding with Price against Appleby who had shown good form this season until his trans-Pacific flights caught up with him. After finishing 2nd in the ANZ Championship two weeks ago, he missed the cut last week. With two missed cuts and a top-20 finish his three previous visits to Riviera it is not obvious that this week will be much better.

Bob Estes to beat Rory Sabbatini -118 @ Easybets
Estes hasn't missed this event since his first visit in 1991. He can count five top-20 finishes in twelve starts in that time and while he missed the cut in 2000 and 2001, he was again in the top-20 last year. With his very strong start to the season and his impressive greens in regulation stats, he should secure another top-20 this year. That should be enough to beat Sabbatini who has played well this season and did finish 2nd last year, but is a far from consistent player.

Stephen Ames to beat Mark O'Meara -115 @ Five Dimes
Will look to oppose O'Meara again who withdrew after nine holes last week citing back problems. He was forecast to miss his third cut in four starts last week and this week should be his fourth. Despite a record on seven top-20 finishes in seven starts on this course from 1985 to 1997, he did not play here again until 2000 when he missed the cut. Back injury or not, he is not the player he was and should struggle again. Siding with Ames who has made the cut in his two previous visits and in his two starts this year, including a top-10 finish in the Bob Hope Classic.

Fred Couples to beat Aaron Baddeley -137 @ Boyle
Only one opportunity to oppose Baddeley this week and will do so with a player whose record in this event is surpassed by few. In the 1990s, Couples won this event twice and finished runner-up on three occasions. That may seem a long time ago, but in the past three years here, he has managed two top-10 finishes. He is also in good form having made the cut in each of the last three weeks, improving his finishing position every week to finish 13th in the Buick Invitational last week. Another top-10 finish at Riviera is a distinct possibility. By contrast, Baddeley has never played this course and prevented a run of three consecutive missed cuts when he finished on the cut line last week. He eventually finished 72nd and will do well to beat that finish this week.

Mid-point update:

Price/Donald WON by 12
Price/McCarron WON by 11
Price/Appleby WON by 12
Estes/Sabbatini WON by 6
Ames/O'Meara WON by 8
Couples/Baddeley Trails by 2

Love 56th
DiMarco mc
Mediate 56th

Great position with the matchups at the cut: five decided and five winners. Still time for Couples to catch Baddeley as well, though he is more likely to do that than the two remaining outright selections make up the six-shot deficit to secure the top-5 finish.

Final update:

Matchups: 6-0-0; +6.00 units

Couples/Baddeley WON by 5

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Love 49th
Mediate 55th

Great result on the matchups, though Baddeley made me sweat for the sweep. Pity about the outrights, they were never in the hunt, but with Weir and Price both higher in my ratings than DiMarco or Mediate, at least the problem was just selection and not methods.