PGA Championship

Outright plays (1 unit):

Davis Love to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham
Don't normally look for someone to win in back-to-back weeks, but he did coast so much over the weekend and this is such a large price relative to elsewhere, it is rather tempting. He is now a four-time winner on the Tour this year and #1 on the Money List, while he is also a former winner of this title (1997) and has finished in the top-10 twice since. He seems to have responded extremely well to some family problems, including some new ones that were reported last week, and he believes he can now win against Tiger and all. In this frame of mind, he is a likely champion.

Jim Furyk to win 23/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Furyk also won on his last outing - the Buick Open two weeks ago. It wasn't quite so straightforward as Love's win last week, but it was a commanding performance nonetheless particularly as he fought off a last-round challenge from Tiger. It was his 2nd win and 10th top-5 finish of the year so it is no surprise that he is #1 in scoring average (actual) this year. He has four top-10 finishes in his last six PGA Championships, including the last two, and is now a very strong contender whenever he tees up.

Chris DiMarco to win 80/1 e.w. @ Easybets
If Love and Furyk have won the last two Tour events, DiMarco has not been too far behind. He was 2nd to Furyk two weeks ago and 4th behind Love last week. That makes nine top-10 finishes this year and he is certainly in-form heading into this event. He has played four PGA Championships, making the cut in each of them and finishing in the top-20 in 2000 and 2001. In this form, he can certainly add another this week.

Matchup plays (2 units):

Chad Campbell to beat Michael Campbell -120 @ William Hill
Michael Campbell had a torrid time on the PGA Tour earlier this year: eight starts and eight missed cuts. He did win in Europe last month (Irish Open) and has made all six cuts in Europe this year, but there will surely be some scars from that confidence-sapping spell in the U.S. He's missed two of the last three cuts in this event and the Cambo of early 2003 is more likely to on view this week than that when on the European Tour. Chad Campbell has missed only two cuts this year on the PGA Tour and should certainly be playing at the weekend.
(Also available at Easybets)

Jerry Kelly to beat Ian Poulter -118 @ Expekt
Apart from opposing a player who won on the opposite side of the Atlantic last week, Poulter has only played in one PGA Tour event - this one in 2001 when he missed the cut. He's a great player to back when in contention, but this looks a classic week where he will be on his way home at the cut unless he gets a fast start. Kelly has had seven top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season already and should be far more at home in these conditions.

Adding outright plays (1 unit):

Luke Donald to win 'Top European' 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Very large price from Bet365 - it is generally about half these odds elsewhere. Unlike most of the other players in this category, Donald concentrates on this Tour so should hold an advantage in that respect. He is also a winner on this side of the Atlantic (2002 Southern Farm Bureau Classic) and has shown good form recently with 13th on his last PGA Tour start (Western Open) and 3rd in his last European Tour start (Scandinavian Masters). Monty is tempting at 16/1 (BlueSq), but this price is much too large.

Robert Allenby to win 'Top Rest of the World' 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Singh does appeal in this market, but 9/2 (William Hill, Easybets) is less value than these odds on Allenby with five places. That is very generous for a market with only 31 players. Apart from a poor patch in June, Allenby's form has been very good all year and he has finished in the top-10 in his last two PGA Tour starts. He has also finished in the top-20 in four of the last five PGA Championships, so it all points to at least a place finish in this market.

Chris Riley to win 'Top U.S. w/o Woods' 50/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Also looking for a place finish here as the odds on the leading players are rather skinny given the size of the market. Riley has some improved form recently with 2nd in the Greater Hartford Open three week ago and 24th last week. He was also 3rd last year and has won on Tour before (2002 Reno-Tahoe Open). You need a good short game in a major and few can match this player in that department.

Adding matchup plays (1 unit):

Robert Allenby to beat Peter Lonard -120 @ SkyBet
Some encouraging performances by Lonard on the European Tour recently, though he did falter very badly in the last round of the British and Irish Opens when in promising positions. He has been competitive on the PGA Tour, but still trails 4-10-1 h2h to Allenby over the last year there, so this looks a little imbalanced. Allenby finished ahead last year and should do so again.

Chris DiMarco to beat Thomas Bjorn -135 @ WWTS
Opposing Bjorn who apart from a 3rd place finish in 2000 has struggled in this event and should show some fatigue after his cruel losses in the British and Irish Opens and a pressurised performance in his home Open last week. This week he will not be able to deflect attention away from THAT bunker at Royal St. Georges and I don't see top-20 finish in the making. Siding with the outright selection on that basis.

Kenny Perry to beat Phil Mickelson -111 @ BetandWin
Mickelson had his firs top-10 since the Masters last week, but it was still rather unconvincing over the weekend. No contrast with Perry who has finished in the top-10 in his last seven starts, winning three times. Perry is at least -155 elsewhere, so the words 'gift horse' and 'mouth' come to mind!
(Also available at Sirbet, BestLine, Five Dimes and Pinnacle).

Colin Montgomerie to beat Lee Westwood -150 @ Stan James
This is not an event that Monty will win - he couldn't even chase down Ian Poulter last week - but it was still a very encouraging performance and that makes two top-4 finishes in his last four events (ignoring the 1st-round withdrawal from injury at the British Open). Westwood finished in 131st position at the International last week and will surely struggle to make the cut. For all Monty's failing on U.S. soil, he still leads Westwood 7-3-0 h2h on this Tour over the past three years.

Prop plays (1 unit unless stated):

Players to miss the cut:

Michael Campbell +100 @ Stan James [2 units]
Brian Davis +130 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Pierre Fulke -143 @ Expekt [2 units]
Anders Hansen -182 @ Expekt
Robert Karlsson -143 @ Expekt [2 units]
Paul McGinley -150 @ Paddy Power
Jose Maria Olazabal -105 @ Five Dimes
Ian Poulter +105 @ Expekt [3 units]

Adding matchup play (1 unit):

Jeff Sluman to beat Scott McCarron -123 @ Five Dimes
Sluman had been in a five-missed-cut slump until a session with Bob Rotella, the sports psychologist, and the result was a 12th place finish in the Buick Open two weeks ago. It was a much need return to form as this is a very important tournament for him - he grew up in Rochester and was awarded honorary membership of the course when he turned pro. He's played it hundreds of times, but he also has to cope with the novelty of getting a standing ovation when he has walked onto the practise ground or onto the 1st tee. On a course he knows well and with confidence in his game, and therefore the ability to live up to local expectation, this should be a good week from Slu, particularly with the U.S. Open setup. That will severely harm McCarron chances this weeks who has nevertheless been 1-5-0 h2h against Sluman in the past three months when the Rochester native has not been at his best.

Final update:

Matchups/props: 8-7-0; +0.26 units

C.Campbell/M.Campbell WON by 26
Kelly/Poulter LOST by 6
Allenby/Lonard LOST by 2
DiMarco/Bjorn WON by 4
Perry/Mickelson WON by 3
Montgomerie/Westwood LOST by 5
Sluman/McCarron LOST by 10

Campbell, M. LOST (32nd)
Davis WON (94th)
Fulke WON (144th)
Hansen WON (121st)
Karlsson WON (115th)
McGinley WON (71st)
Olazabal LOST (61st)
Poulter LOST (49th)

Outright plays: 1-5; -0.50 units

Love mc
Furyk 18th
DiMarco 56th
Donald 3rd
Allenby 12th
Riley 12th

Break-even event and given the look of the leaderboard, I'm thankful for that! Donald was the only winner with the outrights and would certainly not have expected Cejka to have won this market. Great course, but roll on a normal event!