Phoenix Open

Outright plays (0.5 units):

David Toms to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
First start of the season, but has opened his season very well in six of the last seven seasons on this Tour. Has become one of the most consistent players on Tour with top-5 finishes in 10 of 27 starts last year and while his 9th place finish two years ago (his last visit) was his best performance on this course, he has improved his finishing position on each of his last six visits to Scottsdale.

Rocco Mediate to win 24/1 e.w. @ Olympic  [0.25 units to win; 0.25 units to 'show']
Too obvious and I can't believe 40/1 was available at the start of the week, but will take anything from 18/1 upwards. Now playing without back pain, he improved every round to finish 2nd in the Mercedes Championships and finished 1st (1999) or 2nd in three of the last four years here. Very obvious indeed!

Robert Allenby to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
Backed again after his strong finish over the weekend at the Sony Open. It meant he had secured top-5 finishes in three of his last five Tour starts and he did finish 6th in the Australian Open as well. He almost won this event in 2000 - he missed a 5-foot par putt on the last hole to force a playoff with Tom Lehman - and he was struggling badly with his putting when he returned the following year. Looks a big price for someone playing so well.

Matchup plays (0.5 units):

Robert Allenby to beat Aaron Baddeley -120 @ SkyBet and BetInternet
Opposing Baddeley this week despite his residence in Scottsdale and his obvious good form. This will be his debut in this event and there will surely be a reaction from his playoff loss last week to Els. Siding with one of the outright picks is therefore an obvious choice.

Justin Leonard to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Bit of a mixed bag for Leonard in this event. He has missed the last two cuts here, but has also finished 2nd twice in the last seven years. Simply the more consistent player.

Peter Lonard to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ Victor Chandler
Lonard is also the more consistent player. It will be his debut in this event, but a near-miss in the run for 2002 Rookie of the Year and two wins in the winter months in Australia point to yet another top-20 finish this week.

Peter Lonard to beat Jonathan Byrd -118 @ Easybets
Again siding with the very consistent Lonard. Byrd finished a lowly 50th last week and has yet to compete on this course. Also hard to ignore a 13-4-0 head-to-head score over the past year in favour of Lonard.

Luke Donald to beat Rich Beem -111 @ BetandWin
Will continue to oppose Beem. In his last four starts, he has finished last in the Grand Slam of Golf, the Williams World Challenge and the Mercedes Championships, which were events with no cut, and he missed the cut last week in the Sony Open. He has also played in this event three times and missed the cut on every occasion. Donald missed his first cut for five months last week, but should have plenty in reserve against Beem.

Mid-point update:

Allenby/Baddeley WON by 1
Leonard/Baddeley WON by 1
Lonard Baddeley WON by 5
Lonard/Byrd WON by 7
Donald/Beem WON by 14

Toms 31st
Mediate 31st
Allenby 55th

Nice to have the sweep by halftime! Somewhat fortunate that Baddeley finished one shot short of making the cut, but there'll be plenty of bad bounces this season to make amends. The outrights have some work left, though a top-5 finish from one of them is still a possibility.

Final update:

Matchups: 5-0-0; +2.50 units

All decided at the cut

Outrights: 0-3; -1.50 units

Toms 11th
Mediate 28th
Allenby 49th

Small profit on the event as the sweep on the matchups is nearly wiped out by a blank on the outrights. Toms did have chances, but was anything but consistent. Looks like I should have backed the #1 in my ratings