Southern Farm Bureau Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Hidemichi Tanaka to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Siding with three in-form players rather than three with good histories on this course. Tanaka has not yet played Annandale, but having secured three top-6 finishes in his last five events, there are few in this field who can compete with that. Most of them share his missed cuts in the other two starts, but I suppose this 'boom or bust' approach is ideal for outright plays. Either way, his confidence should be high and Maruyama has led the way in helping Japanese players believe that they can win on this Tour.

Tim Clark to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Victor Chandler and BlueSq
Siding with another President's Cup player who is in good form, but has yet to play on this course. Clark has followed up his 3rd place finish in the PGA Championship with finishes of 11th in Deutsche Bank Championship and 24th in the Texas Open last week, though he had been much better placed in-running. In that form and against a field missing the Tour leading players, he looks decent value at this price.

Tim Petrovic to win 40/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Petrovic has struggled to get any consistency this year, but he certainly seems to have achieved some form in the last two weeks. He has finished 2nd and 24th in that time, averaging 67.13 per round. Like the other selections, he does not have to worry about Q-School, which will concern many of this week's field, though he could get into the Tour Championship with a good week this week. And unlike the other selections, he does have course form as he finished in the top-25 last year. This price will fall, as will the others once the adjustments have been made for Loren Roberts' withdrawal.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Carl Paulson to beat Paul Azinger -135 @ Five Dimes
Paulson's form has improved recently with top-20 finishes in the last two weeks and with five years of course form that includes a 6th place finish in 2001, he should have a decent advantage over Zinger who has yet to play this course.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Robert Damron -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA [2 units]
Same in this matchup. Damron has yet to play this course and while he finished 8th on his last outing, he has missed four of his last eight cuts. Sutherland looks too consistent and can also boast a very high finish on his last outing.
(also available at Intertops and Ladbrokes)

Joe Durant to beat Heath Slocum -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Some signs of a renaissance from Durant who has made his last five cuts including a top-10 finish in the Greater Hartford Open and in terms of driving and greens in regulation, he is playing well, but not scoring quite at the same level. He should, though, beat Slocum who has missed three of his last six cuts.

Joe Durant to beat Garrett Willis -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
He should also beat Willis who has surprisingly made his last seven cuts. Quite an improvement on his previous form, but he is still a long way short of the playing ability of his opponent.

John Huston to beat Chris Smith -110 @ Bet365
Faced with current form or course form, I'd pick current form. In that department, Huston wins easily. He leads Smith 10-2-0 h2h over the past year, while Smith has missed three of his last six cuts. On course form, Smith three top-10 finishes in five visits is impressive, but he also missed the cut on the other two occasions and Huston did finish in the top-20 in his only previous visit in the last five years. He was also very impressive in the early stages of last week's event.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-1-0; +1.78 units

Paulson/Azinger WON by 2
Sutherland/Damron TIED (Lost)
Durant/Slocum WON by 7
Durant/Willis 6
Huston/Smith WON by 13

Outrights: 1-2; -0.33 units

Tanaka 4th
Clark 7th
Petrovic mc

Profitable event, but left to rue adding Petrovic at 40/1 who was 6th in my rankings at the expense of Huston who was also 40/1 but was 1st in my rankings. The reason: the had never won on Bentgrass greens ... until this week. Tanaka and Clark had been 2nd and 3rd at the cut, so still would have hoped for more than just a share of one place win and also disappointed that the only loss on the matchups was in the sole double-play and courtesy of the 'ties lose' rule. It could ve been a really good event!