Sony Open in Hawaii

Outright plays (0.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Did think about siding with Vijay, but opted for a South African sweep of the Hawaiian Swing instead. Has not played this course previously, but was very impressive last week and at home on the Bermuda greens which are prevalent in South Africa. This course is tighter than last week and this should suit the former U.S. Open winner.

Chris Riley to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BlueSq, Coral and UKBetting
The move to a shorter, tighter course should also suit Riley who ranked 27th of 36 in driving distance last week. An uncharacteristically poor week on the greens last week for the player with the best short game on Tour and it will surely be less rusty this week. He has good form in three of four years in this event and looks a genuine title contender these days.

Robert Allenby to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Large price for someone who had been a double-winner on the PGA Tour in 2000 and 2001. Had an impressive close to 2002, including two runners-up spots on the PGA Tour and comes into this event refreshed. He has played here four times and has improved on his position every time. With a low ball flight and excellent iron-play, he should go lower this time as well.

Matchup plays (0.5 units unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Carlos Franco -140 @ WSEX
Always look to oppose Franco in match bets as he is still inclined to lose interest in over the weekend if not in contention. Last year, he ranked 39th in scoring average before the cut, but 108th in the 3rd round and 132nd in the final round! Did play better towards the end of last season, but not enough to avoid siding with an outright selection again.

Peter Lonard to beat Jonathan Byrd -110 @ Carib
Excellent end to last season and last week for Byrd and he will surely feature at some stage this week. But Lonard is an excellent player for matchups, he was very consistent last year and this only waned once his shoulder injury became restrictive. He returned to form with back-to-back victories on the ANZ Tour at the end of last year and stands a decent chance of making amends for losing out to Byrd for the 2002 Rookie of the Year award.

Len Mattiace to beat Alex Cejka -111 @ BetandWin [1.5 units]
Cejka was in the form of his life at the end of 2002 and if he can repeat it, he will earn many dollars this year. But not on this course. His ball flight is too high, he has very little experience of playing Bermuda greens and no experience of playing Hawaii at all. Mattiace recovered well from a poor 1st round last week and while a repeat of his 1999 runners-up spot is very unlikely, he should win this match with ease.

Loren Roberts to beat Luke Donald -110 @ Victor Chandler and BetInternet
It was an impressive performance last week by Roberts to compete for so long on such a long course. This should be better-suited to his game and he has secured two top-10 finishes in the last four years at Waialae. Donald trails Roberts 11-4-0 in head-to-heads in the past year and while he is improving, Roberts should be able to finish ahead for the 2nd week in a row.

John Rollins to beat Pat Perez -111 @ BetandWin
Perez is a player to side with for outrights and oppose for matchups. In his last ten starts in 2002, he secured four top-12 finishes, two finishes outside the top-65, two missed cuts and two post-1st round withdrawals. Over the past year, Rollins leads 18-7-0 in head-to-heads and having spent a week in Hawaii, another solid mid-table finish should be enough.

Mid-point update:

Allenby/Franco WON by 4
Lonard/Byrd Leads by 7
Mattiace/Cejka LOST by 1
Roberts/Donald WON by 9
Rollins/Perez Leads by 3

Goosen 1st
Riley 8th
Allenby 31st

Frustrating loss with Mattiace who missed the cut by a single shot having opened his round with a triple-bogey! At least the other matchups are looking good so might yet finish them in profit. Could yet be a very good event despite the loss on the triple-play if Goosen holds on.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-2-0; -0.73 units

Lonard/Byrd WON by 6
Rollins/Perez LOST by 3

Outrights: 1-2; +1.88 units

Goosen 20th
Riley 7th
Allenby 4th

Profitable event, but Goosen didn't hold on. A triple-bogey on his first hole of the third round and he was nine shots behind Baddeley halfway through that round. He never recovered. Riley always looked like securing a top-10 finish without threatening the top-5 and so it was left to a great weekend by Allenby to provide the only positive note on an otherwise frustrating weekend across all the Tours.