St. Jude Classic

Outright plays (1 unit):

Nick Price to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and UKBetting
Few can match Price's form or course history this week and so is a straightforward selection. He has failed to repeat his return to the winner's circle of 2002, but he has come very close this term. He has finished in the top-5 in three of his last four events and these have been against much stronger fields, particularly the U.S. Open. Twice a winner in this event in the past ten years, he will certainly fancy his chances this week.

Jay Haas to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
The last two are hardly proven winners, so taking the place-only option instead. It has been ten years since Haas last won on the PGA Tour, but eleven years ago he did win this event. He has finished in the top-20 in each of the last three season, a feat that he has achieved in nine of the fourteen years that this event has been held at Southwind. He has come very close to breaking that run this year with 2nd place finishes in the Bob Hope Classic and the Players Championship, so he is still competitive and improved in every round last week to finish 6th against a much stronger field. He is as low as 20/1 in places and looks good to at least contend this week.

Tim Petrovic to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet
Petrovic certainly contended last year. He was the first-round leader and remained with the leaders throughout, only to be denied by a charging Len Mattiace in the final round. He finished one shot back in 2nd place, which is a problem he has had in the last few years. He finished 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in consecutive events on the Nationwide Tour in 2001 and has had two top-five finishes this year (Phoenix Open and Ford Open). Despite last week's missed cut, he has shown good form since the Wachovia Championship in May, including a 15th place finish in the U.S. Open two weeks ago. Looks unlikely to win, but certainly capable of repeating last year's performance.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Stephen Ames to beat John Daly -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Can't turn down an opportunity to oppose Daly. He has shot just one round out of his last twelve in the 60s and barring a 5th place finish in 2001 has a poor record on this course. Ames has made the cut in nine of twelve starts this year and a repeat will surely ensure victory.

Lee Janzen to beat Notah Begay -111 @ BetandWin
Begay may have won this event in 2000 and finished 3rd in 2002, but he has made the cut in just one of his last five events with just two of his last eighteen rounds in the 60s. Janzen has a 14-2-0 h2h record against Begay over the past 12 months and the runner-up in last months Memorial Tournament should certainly be a heavy favourite in this matchup.

Robert Gamez to beat Matt Kuchar -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
No comparison between a player who has finished in the top-20 in four of his last six starts and one who has missed the cut in five of his last eight. They have played in 12 common events this year and Gamez has finished ahead of Kuchar on every occasion! In this form, this shouldn't be unlucky thirteen.

Adding (1 unit):

Tim Petrovic to beat Woody Austin -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Austin has maintained the good form that almost netted him the Heritage in April, but Petrovic has still finished ahead of him in three of their last four common events and has a far superior course history. Austin has played at Southwind seven times, he has made the weekend only twice and on those two occasions he finished 70th and 74th. In his 18 rounds on this course, he has only once shot a round better than Petrovic's worst round from last year. Siding with the outright selection again.

Jay Haas to beat Joey Sindelar -118 @ Easybets
No comparison between these two other than age. Sindelar's 3rd place finish last week earned him his biggest paycheck of his career, but he had missed seven of his last eleven cuts, with a previous best finish of 39th. He he last had a career week - he was 2nd in the 2002 Honda Classic - he then finished 45th the following week and then missed the next six cuts. He has played this course three times and only once made the cut - a 70th place finish in 1989. No comparison to a player selected for the outright market.

No 1st round plays.

2nd round play:

Briny Baird to beat Duffy Waldorf -118 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

2nd round update: 0-1-0; -3.54 units

Baird/Waldorf LOST by 4

Mid-point update:

Janzen/Begay Leads by 5
Gamez/Kuchar Trails by 1

Price 53rd
Haas 6th
Petrovic 23rd

Heavy loss on the day, but generally favourable outlook on the rest of the plays. Haas had been 1st round leader, but he and Petrovic have good chances of securing the top-5 finish. Withdrawals decimated the matchup plays and only two remain.

3rd round plays (1 unit):

Kevin Sutherland to beat Notah Begay -126 @ Five Dimes
Pat Bates to beat Hank Kuehne -117 @ Five Dimes
Jay Williamson to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ Five Dimes

3rd round update: 0-3-0; -3.53 units

Sutherland/Begay LOST by 3
Bates/Kuehne LOST by 1
Williamson/McCarron LOST by 3

4th round plays (1 unit):

Stephen Ames to beat Robert Damron +100 @ Five Dimes
Joel Edwards to beat Hank Kuehne -113 @ Five Dimes
Thomas Levet to beat Jose Coceres -127 @ Five Dimes

4th round update: 0-2-1; -2.40 units

Ames/Damron TIED (Push)
Edwards/Kuehne LOST by 9
Levet/Coceres LOST by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 1-1-0; -0.25 units

Janzen/Begay WON by 5
Gamez/Kuchar LOST by 12

18-holes: 0-6-1; -9.47 units

Outrights: 1-2; -0.75 units

Price 2nd
Haas 9th
Petrovic 40th

What a week! So close with Price who had two storming rounds over the weekend, but faltered at the close on both of them and it proved to be costly. It meant that I picked a top-3 player in each of this week's four events, but still made a loss on all outright plays because none of them finished 1st. I went 17-7-0 in matchups with one loss due to 'ties lose' at SkyBet for a whacking 29-unit profit, but gave back 25 of those units on 18-hole plays! Geez! What a week!