Valero Texas Open

Outright plays (1 unit):

Charles Howell to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Giving Howell another chance with Chandler offering considerably higher odds than elsewhere. He continues to get into contention each event and but for a cold putter or poor course management in the final round, he could have been a winner in the last month. The move to his native Bermuda greens should help him and there are no question marks about his ability ...

Jay Haas to win 33/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, BetInternet and Paddy Power
A much wiser head is on this veteran's shoulders and given that Loren Roberts (1st), Fred Funk (2nd) and Fred Couples (2nd) were in the top-3 last year, there could be a case for experience this week. Haas has been in excellent form this season with six top-5 finishes, including the Houston Open in Texas, and his record in this event is equally impressive. He won this event in 1982 and 1993 at the previous course host, Oak Hill, and finished 8th, 2nd, mc, 2nd, 5th from 1995 to 1999 when the event moved to LaCantera. Certainly capable of winning and should be boosted by the age of the defending champion.

Chad Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill and Ladbrokes
Here's the obligatory Texan for an event in Texas. He hasn't played since the NEC Invitational when he clearly finding it difficult to raise his game after going so close in the PGA Championship the previous week when he recorded his 3rd runners-up spot of the year. Plenty of talent, but has yet to win on the PGA Tour so Texas looks as good a place as any for him to break his duck.

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Tim Herron to beat Tim Clark -111 @ Victor Chandler
With at least comparable current form, there is good reason to back Herron in this match. Whereas Clark has yet to play on this course and has a record of three missed cuts and a 67th place in his four starts in Texas (PGA and Nationwide Tour), Lumpy won this event in 1997 and has played here every year since 1996. Too much experience in Texas golfing conditions for the South African.

Jay Haas to beat Bob Estes +105 @ William Hill and Easybets [2 units]
Estes should have plenty of experience of golf in this State, but his record on this course is rather mixed. He has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years, but has missed three of eight cuts since the event moved to LaCantera. He did, incidentally, win the last Texas Open to be held at Oak Hill, the year after Haas. With Haas playing the better golf at the moment, these looks attractive odds for the outright selection.
(also available at WWTS and Stan James)

David Toms to beat Bob Estes -117 @ Pinnacle
With also wide with Toms against Estes. While not in quite the same form that earned victories in both May and June, he is clearly one of the headline players this week and has a solid record in this event until his last appearance in 2001. His record in Texas is equally solid with six top-10 finishes (plus 11th at the 2001 Byron Nelson Classic) since the 2001 season. I would expect this line to move upwards before the event starts.
(also available at Aces)

David Toms to beat Sergio Garcia -140 @ Carib
This is a steeper line, but an even better player to oppose. Garcia in not in very good form at the moment, has never played on this course and has missed the cut in four Texas events in the last two years. He should make the cut against this field, but should be a long way behind the market leader.
(also available at Centrebet and Aces)

Charles Howell to beat Sergio Garcia -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
If Toms should beat Garcia, then so should one of the outright selections at a better price. Doubts remain over Howell's ability to win events, but he is just not missing cuts at the moment and against a player who is struggling to do so, this looks very straightforward.
(also available at WWTS, Intertops and Nordicbet)

Bob Tway to beat Frank Lickliter -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Until his 2nd place finish at the 84 Lumber Classic last week, Lickliter had been having a torrid time since he fortuitously won the Chrysler Classic of Tucson in March - he drove into the water on the last hole, but 33/1 selection Campbell, who was only one shot behind, also followed him and drove through the fairway into the water to hand the victory back to Lickliter. He had had no top-20 finishes in 18 consecutive starts, so confidence and consistency are not integral parts of Lickliter's game at the moment. It should not be a problem for Tway who won his first event for eight years in his last outing (Canadian Open) and he does have a decent record in Texas with a top-10 finish in this event last year.
(also available at William Hill and Easybets)

No 1st round plays.

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

Tommy Armour +.5 to beat Aaron Baddeley +110 @ WSEX
J.L. Lewis to beat Bob Tway -110 @ Sirbet [3 units]  (also available at Carib)
Loren Roberts to beat Bob Tway -115 @ BestLine  (also available at Five Dimes)

2nd round update: 2-1-0; +0.90 units

Armour/Baddeley WON by 8.5
Lewis/Tway LOST by 2
Roberts/Tway WON by 3

Mid-point update:

Herron/Clark Trails by 8
Haas/Estes TIED (Lost)
Toms/Estes WON by 6
Toms/Garcia Leads by 5
Howell/Garcia Leads by 8
Tway/Lickliter Leads by 7

Howell 4th
Haas mc
Campbell 65th

Decent position at the cut with the matchups set for a profitable week, despite Estes' late birdie causing him to tie Haas and thus make it a losing wager, and Howell in a promising position. He has been in this position many times at the cut, so hopefully this will be one week he manages to build on this start!

No further plays in this event.

Final update:

Matchups: 4-2-0; +1.89 units

Herron/Clark LOST by 10
Toms/Garcia WON by 9
Howell/Garcia WON by 6
Tway/Lickliter WON by 4

18-holes: 2-1-0; +0.90 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Howell 52nd
Campbell 17th

Break-even event as the forebodings about Howell were borne out. A 65-64 opening was followed with a 70-75 weekend ... shan't be giving him another chance for a long time!