Tour Championship

Outright plays (1 unit):

Ernie Els to win 11/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Stan James, Victor Chandler and Totalbet
It seems a very long time since Els was winning (almost) everything at the start of the season and was a strong favourite for the Money List. Now that Tiger and Vijay are dominating the headlines in the bid for that title, Els' rediscovery of his form has been overlooked. Prior to last week's event, he had finished 1st, 2nd, 12th and 1st in his previous four starts. This week, they tee it up on the par-71 Champions Golf Club in Houston and Els has a much better record on par-71s than the world #1. With no pressure of the Money List on his shoulders, this could very well be the week he ends as he started it back in Hawaii.

Robert Allenby to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sean Graham [5 places]
The two Australians who make up the rest of the selections are much less likely to win this company, but have been showing enough form of late to suggest that they shouldn't be too far from the leaderboard. Allenby has finished 9th and 4th in his last two starts - his fifth top-5 finish of the season. He also has good form in Texas having finished 3rd in the Byron Nelson Championship and, more importantly, having secured his maiden Tour victory in the 2000 Houston Open. This week's winner will have to cope with the Texas winds and all three selections have shown they are good in this environment.

Stuart Appleby to win 40/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Victor Chandler
For Appleby, apart from his experience of Australian golfing conditions, it comes from his 2nd place finish in the Houston Open earlier this year and his win in that event in 1999 - his 3rd victory on the PGA Tour, a total to which he added with victory in the Las Vegas Invitational last month. He had finished 2nd in each of the previous two weeks and still managed to finish 12th the following week in Greensboro. In this form and, like Allenby, having already won on the PGA Tour in Houston, this looks a particularly large price.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ BetandWin
Can't ignore the ability to hedge a 40/1 outright bet with a matchup against a player who is 20/1 at most. I think Appleby will do much better than his outright odds suggest, but also expect Weir, who won on this course in 1999, to also figure prominently. Expekt price Weir -154 which is a truer reflection of their outright odds.
(also available at Expekt)

Mike Weir to beat David Toms -120 @ SkyBet
Toms' course form is decent as well - he made the playoff two years ago and was 12th behind Weir in 1999 - but his current form is more questionable. He has made his last five cuts, but in his last seven starts, he has managed just one top-25 finish (5th in the American Express Championship). Siding with the more consistent player.

Vijay Singh to beat Davis Love -125 @ BetandWin
Expecting an indifferent performance from Love this week. It is rare that he plays four weeks in a row and Singh's victory last week signalled the end of his challenge for the Money List and the Player of the Year award. He has played well here in the past (two top-3 finishes from four starts), but the old concerns of motivation should feature this week. No matter how tired he is, you can't fault nine top-6 finishes in ten starts. Vijay will certainly not be lacking motivation this week.

Adding (1 unit unless stated):

Chad Campbell to beat K.J. Choi -108 @ Centrebet
Maybe it is his punishing end-of-season schedule (seven events in eight week including a week in Germany) or the pressure of making the top-30 to qualify for this event, but he has been rather average in the last two weeks and only just held on to his place in this event. Opposing him this week and with a Texan in this matchup who finished 4th in last week's event (though he should have finished 2nd as he made a right mess of the final hole).
(also available at Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BlueSq)

Justin Leonard to beat K.J. Choi -101 @ Pinnacle [2 units]
Opposing Choi with another Texan who signalled a return to better form last week and has played this course many times. This will be Choi's first visit and apart from his 7th place finish in the Texas Open this year, he has never played well in this State.
(also available at NordicBet, Aces, Five Dimes and Sirbet)

Kenny Perry to beat K.J. Choi -111 @ Ladbrokes and SIA
Not in the same form as in the summer, but Perry is still very competitive and finished in the top-20 last week. He finished 5th in this event two years ago (just one shot out of the playoff) and should be well-rested as his schedule is nowhere near as punishing as that of Choi.

Kenny Perry to beat Darren Clarke -110 @ BlueSq
Clarke won the NEC Invitational in August and that sparked a great run of form that lasted five weeks, but his finishes since the start of October have been 38th (limited field), 61st and 13th (limited field). He was also playing in Spain last week and it is usually profitable to oppose players making trans-Atlantic flights in the week of the event, particularly those that have never played the course beforehand.
(also available at WWTS)

Kenny Perry to beat Scott Verplank -111 @ BetandWin
Opposing Verplank despite his top-5 finishes in his last two starts - these have been in relatively weak events and he tends not to play well in these higher-calibre fields. He finished seven shots behind Perry in the American Express Championship last month, for example.

Justin Leonard to beat Chris DiMarco -120 @ WWTS
DiMarco has shown only a few brief glimpses of form in the last three months and is easily opposable in this field.

Jim Furyk to beat Charles Howell -200 @ NordicBet
With Furyk having a 12-4-1 h2h lead over the past twelve months and Howell struggling to be competitive at the moment, I think this has a much greater than the required 67% chance of victory. Furyk plays well on this course (he finished 2nd in 1997, for example), while Howell will be making his debut.

Final update:

Matchups: 5-4-1; -1.38 units

Weir/Appleby WON by 3
Weir/Toms WON by 1
Singh/Love TIED (Lost)
Campbell/Choi WON by 15
Leonard/Choi LOST by 1
Perry/Choi WON by 4
Perry/Clarke WON by 3
Perry/Verplank TIED (Lost)
Leonard/DiMarco TIED (Push)
Furyk/Howell LOST by 7

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Els 17th
Allenby 13th
Appleby 27th

Disappointing way to finish a very profitable 2003 PGA Tour season. The outrights were nowhere in sight, but the matchups could have very profitable: three of the four losses were courtesy of two losses to ties (one courtesy of Perry bogeying the last hole) and a one-shot loss on a double-play. Will be upgrading this Tour to 1.5 units per play next year!