Chrysler Classic of Tucson

Outright plays (1 unit):

Tim Herron to win 18/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Hasn't played since the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, but is definitely the most in-form player in this field with top-3 finishes in his last starts. His 3rd place finish at Pebble Beach was particularly impressive given his tribulations the previous week when leading the Bob Hope Classic. He should be able to repeat his top-5 finish of 1998.

Harrison Frazar to win 33/1 e.w. @ Centrebet
Frazar has had an extra week's rest than Herron, but was also on top of his game when he last played. He finished 3rd in the Phoenix Open when the Tour was last in Arizona and was in the top-10 the following week in the Bob Hope Classic. It was his third top-10 finish in the last four years in the Arizona events so his game does appear to be suited to desert courses and like Herron, his will also like the wide fairways at the Omni Tucson National.

Chad Campbell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Boyle
Campbell has traditionally been a predominantly accurate player off the tee, but he has gained on average 17 yards on his drives this year to be in the top-20 in driving distance (last year he was 82nd). The improvement in his game is shown by the fact that at the same time he has also risen to be in the top-20 in driving accuracy and retains his place in the top-20 in the greens in regulation statistics. He had his best finish of the season last week (8th) and is playing well enough to challenge this week. He has finished in the top-15 in his last two Arizona events and this should be a repeat.

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Chad Campbell to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ BetInternet  [-120 @ Sirbet where the ties push]
Opposing Baddeley yet again who has at least made his last two cuts, but failed to improve in any of his rounds last week and finished a lowly 55th last year. He missed the cut in his last event in Arizona. Siding with the outright selection who finished six shots ahead of him last year and in three of the last four events.

Tim Herron to beat Aaron Baddeley -118 @ Centrebet
Herron is justifiably a shorter price than Campbell in the outright markets and is the most in-form player in this event. Easy to follow Campbell with Herron in opposing Baddeley.

Kirk Triplett to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Five Dimes
Will complete the anti-Baddeley treble with Triplett. He finished the 2002 season with some very consistent finishes and has started 2003 in the same vein (14th, 16th and 28th), but with two missed cuts as well. In both those cases, it has been very poor 2nd rounds that have been to blame (83 at Spyglass Hill; 77 at Riviera) so he may be prone to throwing in the towel is he doesn't think he will make the cut this week, but both those courses were playing hard, fast and difficult in the wind. That will not be the case this week and there is every chance he will match the top-10 finishes he has secured on his last two visits to the Omni Tucson Resort.

Joe Durant to beat Marco Dawson -111 @ Centrebet
There is no doubting that Dawson is in a rich vein of form - three consecutive top-15 finishes - but his record in this event and in Arizona is woeful. He has made just one of his last six cuts in this event and two of his last eight cuts in Arizona. This is also his fifth straight event and some tailing-off of his form is expected.  Siding with Durant who had been in very good form before Riviera, though those conditions will not be experienced this week. His course form is not great, but he did finish in the top-10 in the Phoenix Open a month ago.

Per-Ulrik Johansson to beat Thomas Levet -118 @ Expekt
Opposing Levet who has made only two cuts of four this season with a best finish of 57th. He has played this course once before (1994), but he missed the cut on that occasion and will struggle to avoid the same. Would not normally side with a player who is playing his seventh straight week, but he has made his last two cuts, has recent course experience and should only need to make the weekend to secure the win.

Mid-point update:

Campbell/Baddeley Trails by 4
Herron/Baddeley Trails by 2
Triplett/Baddeley All Square
Durant/Dawson WON by 3

Herron 20th
Frazar mc
Campbell 37th

Not too promising at the cut even though the only matchup to be decided is a win. But the matchup selections are within striking distance of Baddeley and two of the outright selections are within striking distance of a place finish, so there is always hope. Johansson did not tee off so the Johansson/Levet play is void.

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +1.82 units

Campbell/Baddeley WON by 6
Herron/Baddeley LOST by 2
Triplett/Baddeley WON by 1

Outrights: 1-2; +1.63 units

Herron 26th
Campbell 2nd

Profitable event, but a painful one to watch ... Campbell should have won. After finally catching Lickliter, he was on the 16th in one less shot and inside his opponent. Lickliter holed from 31 feet and Campbell 3-putted from 28. One shot behind on the last tee, Lickliter drove through the fairway into the water ... and Campbell followed him Does he have a 3-wood in his bag? Sometimes you just wish you had read the results in the morning paper!