|
|
|
|
84 Lumber Classic @
Betfair
Summary:
2.5 pts staked, 7 pts laid, Profit 4.5 pts. Wonders will
never cease ... a profit!
Selection 2 Back:
Todd Hamilton 0.75 pts @ 90 & 0.75 pts @ 100/1 (4
firms, check
here)
I have no idea why Hamilton is
so ignored in the betting. The guy has won two events this year (how
many on tour, let alone in this field, can say even that?) and one of
them was a Major, obviously the Open Championship. Maybe the layers
think that amazing success was a fluke but his form in his own country
since that life-changing win has hardly dropped off; in fact, 12th in
the International, 37th in the PGA (best Sunday score of the whole
field), and 21st in the NEC (6th at halfway and 12th after 3 rounds) is
not far off his best three-tournament block of the whole season. Add in
the Open and his last four events have definitely been a career-best.
One other angle that encourages me to bet him is that I reckon he'll be
slightly aggrieved that his efforts were overlooked when it came to
Ryder Cup selection. A two-time winner this year, with one a Major, or a
non-Major-winning 50 year old who hasn't won since 1993?!? I wonder if
he would quietly like to prove this point, and a victory here would
surely give those shell-shocked Americans some extra ammunition to keep
them moaning about the mauling for a little longer!
Backing half with Betfair to cover most of the exposure of the lays, and
half with bookies for the much better price.
Selection 2 Lay:
1.5 pts @ 20 (to lose 28.5 pts)
3 pts @ 10.5 (28.5 pts)
7 pts @ 4.7 (25.9 pts) Profit if successful = 58.85 pts
Selection 1 Back:
Jonathan Byrd 1 pt @ 160
A nice price here, pleased to get this as I
was surprised any bookies went over 100/1 (one did, Bet365 at 125/1).
Byrd really arrived in pro golf in late 2002, finishing off that season,
his first on tour, with four successive top-20s including his first win.
Only four top-15s in his first 22 events of '03 was very disappointing
after that but then, after reaching September, he finished off the
season well again with T13-T2-T16-T69-T5-MC-T13. Injury hampered his
early 2004 efforts and, although it was good to see him prove he enjoys
the pressure of winning again at the BC Open in July, he has struggled
badly for the most part. However, reaching September again has seen some
signs of maybe another good finish to the season from Byrd. Although he
ultimately finished each tournament off poorly, he was 11th at the
Deutsche Bank and 15th at the Canadian Open entering the final rounds,
and the hope is that these late-season surges in form aren't just a
coincidence and we're seeing another just starting. If so, we have a
reason to support a sub-30-year-old American multiple tour winner
(pretty rare that!) who is in arguably progressive form, at 159/1 in a
weakish field.
Selection 1 Lay:
1 pts @ 27 (to lose 26 pts) **MATCHED**
2 pts @ 17 (32 pts) **MATCHED**
4 pts @ 6.4 (21.6 pts) **MATCHED**
8 pts @ 3.1 (16.8 pts) Profit if successful = 62.6 pts
The lays are
at set prices, based on the original back price, and are left up for the
duration of the tournament. Please note:
they are to be put up as soon as
possible after the market is placed in-running.
|
|