84 Lumber Classic

From Shaker (pre-4th round):

Sell Chris DiMarco/Stewart Cink 72H MB at 3 for 1.5 pts with Sporting Index
DiMarco is currently 3 ahead of Cink so this is a 4th round match off a level start. DiMarco is notoriously weak under pressure (too many examples to mention and started to feel it last night with three bogeys in the final 5 holes) and he will be in the final group with the incredible Vijay Singh ... cue intense media spotlight on the group. Cink on the other hand is two groups ahead and has shown before how he is liable to come from off the pace to challenge. His current form is 8-14-5-6-17-1-4 and coming off a Saturday 67 he looks a very likely contender for a good round today. Similar-ability players but facing very different conditions.
Result: MU -2, Profit = 7.5 pts (DiMarco did little wrong but Cink did us proud with a 65)

From Andy:
Summary: -6.25 pts. Waldorf was the only good bet on the week as the others were always well down the field.

Four Finishing Positions Trades all at Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts

Sell Rory Sabbatini at 33,
2nd last time out in the WGC event at Firestone, and finishes of 3rd and 2nd back in June at the Booz Allen and Buick shows that Sabbatini is in some good form this part of the year. With an average field here, Rory should be around the 30/31 mark. Especially when you consider he was 10th here last year.
M/U 50, Loss 8.5 pts

Sell Duffy Waldorf at 37
14th last week in Texas means that Duffy shouldn't be as high as 37. He is a toucher at Sporting who go 34-37 which is probably fairer.
M/U 7.5, Profit 14.75 pts

Sell Rod Pampling at 37
Finally a winner in August at The International after almost always being a fixture on R1 leaderboards every week, That week he managed to keep it going until the Sunday night and since then he had a good 14th at the WGC event. 37 seems a bit high in this company, and IG seem to agree going 34-37
M/U 50, Loss 6.5 pts

Sell Steve Flesch at 38
Having a terrible time at the moment but even allowing for no Top 30 since June at the US Open, I still think that 38 is a bit high for someone as talented as Flesch. His results may be a reaction to trying to get into the Ryder Cup team and now that is over he may revert to previous form that seem him post three Top 10's in four back in early summer.
M/U 50, Loss 6 pts

From Shaker:

Sell Justin Rose NO MAX FP at 52 for 0.25 pts with Sporting Index
Had success with this bet at 57 a fortnight ago, and 52 is still value now. In good form, and the fact he was disappointed to only finish tied-17th last week speaks volumes of what standard of golfer he now is in America. His NO-MAX spread makeups for this season averages out at 44.3 and his 8-week average is 38.9; given his current good form you could reasonably expect another finish inside the top-30, as 9 of his last 13 US events have been. They go 52-56, I'd set it somewhere under 40.
Result: MU 38.5, Profit = 3.38 pts (Tied 5th for birdies this week, but too many bogeys)

Sell Bart Bryant NO MAX FP at 72 for 0.25 pts with Sporting Index
What will happen to him after last week's win? Two scenarios: one is he reverts to type and simply returns to being the below-average journeyman, two is he celebrates his career-best week with more good form. If we look at one, and he is to carry on being that below-average journeyman, we can still observe that he has made 32 of 44 cuts since 2002 and his NO MAX spread makeups for the PGA Tour since 2002 average out at 58.2 and his 2004-only average is 62.1; these figures have obviously been influenced by last week's win, but only slightly given the number of tournaments involved - whatever, all the numbers are nicely below our sell price. And then we have two, the, in my opinion, very real possibility he'll react positively to his career-best week. Why shouldn't he? He has just secured that elusive first win and secured his playing privileges for the foreseeable future. Sporting's quote of 72-77 just doesn't make sense to me.
Result: MU 111, Loss = 9.75 pts (Bryant shoots his worst PGA rd.1 score for over 4 years!!!)

Sell K.J. Choi/Scott Verplank 72H MB at -0.75 for 0.5 pts with IG Sport
Verplank outperforms Choi over almost any period of time you choose to compare. Use their 3-year finishing position averages, 1-year averages, 8-week averages, whatever - Verplank's numbers are significantly better than Choi's. Check Stanley's head-to-heads - they back me up too: Verplank has finished in front of Choi in 24 of 42 common tournaments in the last 3 years, 9 of 14 in the last year, and 3 of 4 in the last 3 months. How can they make this a 'choice' matchup with the players equal prices? Choi is undoubtedly capable of a fine showing but no more so than Verplank and he doesn't have anywhere near the consistency. 25 is the number of consecutive cuts made for Verplank at the moment.
Result: MU 12, Loss = 6.38 pts (Verplank misses first cut in 26!!!)

Sell Charles Howell III FP at 30 for 0.5 pts with Spreadex
Almost went with Charlie as an outright play but he just disappoints too often when it comes to the crunch. The thinking behind supporting him this week is the end-of-season-form angle. Whatever the reason, he seems to raise his game for the closing weeks of the season. In 2002 he got his win in early October and then went T6-T14-2 to finish, in 2003 he finished tied-24th or better in 9 of his last 10 events, and even this year he went T9-T9 before missing the cut last time out. We just have that one blip to ignore, but if we can that is a highly impressive Autumn/Fall record he has there. The clincher for me is that one of the last goals of 2004 for him will surely be to secure a place in the season-ending Tour Championship; he has finished 2nd in the last two runnings of that prestigious event and must be desperate to make the field again. He is currently right on the bubble for it, less than $13,000 away from falling out of the qualifying places. I therefore fancy another strong finish to the season for him, and maybe even the Ryder Cup disaster will spur him on, I guess he'll be thinking he has a massive chance to make the next team.
Result: MU 28, Profit = 1 pt (Just 2 bogeys in 3 rds but twice as many on Sunday)

Overall for Shaker: Loss 4.25 pts