AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Mike Weir to win 12/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Stan James, BetInternet, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
What a difference a warm putter makes! In the Mercedes Championship, he was ranked 14th (of 30) in putting average and finished 24th; in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic, he ranked 60th and finished 41st; and last week he ranked 18th and finished 5th. Back to just using his putter on the greens, he looks competitive again and stands a decent chance of winning this week. He has finished in the top-10 in three of the last four years and with no inclement weather forecast for this week, his class should show through.

Jerry Kelly to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Kelly is another who has been struggling with his putting. In his two starts of the year so far he has been ranked 60th and 61st in putting average, yet has still managed to finish 5th and 30th. The rest of his game is in impressive shape and it will only take a small improvement in his putting for him to be a serious challenger this week. He was a selection for the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic as he does have the right temperament for these pro-ams and that has also been shown by his two top-10 finishes here in the last four four years. Decent odds against a relatively weak field.

Kirk Triplett to finish in the top-five 14/1 @ SkyBet
Last week's missed cut was reminiscent of his horrible last round in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. After putting himself in 12th position after the 1st round, he lost control of his putter in the 2nd round (36 putts; 2.08 putting average) and missed the cut by a single shot. So this is therefore a third leap of faith with someone who has been struggling with their putter. He has two top-10 finishes to his name this year and was in prime position last week after the 1st round, so his putting has been good even though his confidence with it has been shaky. As long as that stays intact, these odds on a place-only finish will look very large.

Final update: 1-2; -2.00 units

Weir 4th
Kelly 35th
Triplett 14th

Small loss on the outrights. Weir took hit his ball on the water on the last hole to record a seven and it meant a share of 4th place and the loss of 0.5 units, while Triplett did get to 4th early in the final round and a potential 21 units profit, but faltered badly on the back nine.