Tipster: Andy

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Bet 1 - Buy Tom Lehman over Mark O' Meara 72H MB at 0.75 with Spreadex for 1 pt. M/U 6.67, Profit 6pts.

Both these players are showing signs of recovering a little of their form of yesteryear. Lehman was 23rd last week in Phoenix with O'Meara 42nd and 16th the week before. On course form, Lehman was 2nd last year to O'Meara's 15th. However, O'Meara is now missing over 1 in 2 cuts whereas with Lehman he is still consistent enough to keep that stat down to 1 in 4. Also Lehman is still averaging more than 2 in 5 in Top 25's where O'Meara is only 1 in 5. Lehman is preferred here at the price which realistically should be 0.5-2 minimum.

Bet 2 - Buy Phil Mickelson FP at 22 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U 3 Profit -9.5 pts

Mickelson has came back well in 04'. A win followed closely by a 7th place last week compensated partly for a shocking 2003. However, he can't be top 10 every week, that Vijay's domain. Phil has an 3 year average FP around his price this week. However, this is a celebrity event that has the biggest field of the year and, bar the US Masters, the smallest cut line. 180 players tee up with a host of celebrities and only 60 make Sunday (after a 3rd round cut) due to the fact that the best 25 celebrities also make Sunday for their own competition. After a 3rd in 2001, Mickelson MC in 02' then was last of the cut qualifiers last year after playing the last 9 as a joke, playing right handed on some shots and basically fooling around. Mickelson is an FP buyers dream as when he is not in contention he loses interest quickly. With no desire, like Tiger Woods, to finish as high as possible he "drops his hands" on occasions. This is value at 22.

Summary

Only 2 trades on the PGA this week. There was very little effort made by the spread firms on the 18H Matches and of those they priced up nothing stood out. On the two trades offered, Lehman was steady throughout whereas O'Meara had enough bogeys to see him fall short of the cut line. The margin of 5 was multiplied by 33% as opposed to the usual double due to the cut being made after R3. The Mickelson bet failed as Phil never left the top 10 from day 1. As stated Mickelson can lose interest but he contended all week and bar a slow start today never looked like being outwith the Top 10. Weekly Result -3.5pts, some of the profits from the Australian event given back here.

Tipster: Shaker

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

In-running bet 3 (after round 3):

Sell Jeff Maggert/Phil Price 18 hole Match Bet 0.5 pts at 0 @ SportsSpread:

Not sure they have it right in making Maggert favourite over Price here. Maggert is notoriously unreliable when the pressure is applied and shot 78 in his last 4th round appearance here. Can't see him matching his 27 putts of yesterday and I think if he was facing an American of similar ability to Price I'm sure he would be the outsider. Price has played here the last two years so is not at the usual course disadvantage he would be when in the US and is a much more reliable 4th round performer, when chasing the lead, than Maggert. Looks like he will play steadily, even if he does not show the fireworks he did when shooting 64 to win in Portugal in 2002, whereas anything could happen to Maggert.

MU = 34 ... 17 pt loss.
Saved the best to last. Price made 16 birdies in the first three days, he couldn't make a single one today. Who said he's a reliable 4th round performer? Conversely, Maggert played very solid golf all day, one 4-putt on 16 being the only blot but even then he bounced back to hole a bunker shot on 17 and then birdie the last.


In-running bet 2 (after round 3):

Sell Phil Mickelson/Mike Weir 72 hole Match Bet 1 pt at 2 @ Sporting Index:

Mickelson is currently 2 in front so this is just a match based on 4th round scores with the profit or loss being 1 pt for every shot difference. Mickelson, as we saw last week, will go for everything tonight in an effort to reach the lead and if it doesn't come off he could shoot anything. Shot 80 in round 4 here last year and played the back nine in +2 yesterday. Weir, on the other hand, is one of the most reliable players on tour and his record in this event is very good, even when he was a lesser player than he is now. Played great yesterday and the momentum which should see him shoot another good round today.

MU = 3 ... 1 pt loss.
After 10 holes Weir was four shots up - not surprising in the current climate that Mickelson would outscore him by 5 on the remaining 8 holes!
 

In-running bet 1 (after round 1):

Sell Vijay Singh/Davis Love 72 hole Match Bet 1 pt at 9.8 @ Cantor Sport:

Currently 8 the difference, Cantor have already factored in a fair proportion of the multiplication that will be done should Love miss the cut. True, he is 4 shots away from making the cut at the moment but he played the hardest course yesterday and there are still 2 rounds until the cut is made. Love usually plays very well here so can be expected to make a run at it while Singh has the toughest course to play today and the very exposed Pebble Beach on Saturday when the wind is expected to pick up. Those are the positives, the negatives are that this is Vijay Singh we're talking about, and only 60 players plus ties make the cut instead of the usual 70. However, Singh hasn't equalled his first round score in any of the last 4 years here and it's possible that even if he doesn't make good ground, Love could miss the cut and still we'd only lose a little, or even win on the bet, so I think the bet is worth taking.

MU = 18.7 ... 8.9 pts loss.
Little short of a disaster and who could have foreseen Love shooting 72 and 70 after being -3 thru 3 on Friday and -2 thru 2 on Saturday in one of his favourite tournaments? Singh tightened the noose in round 3 after struggling to +2 thru 2 and giving us false hope.

Summary (Weekly total = 26.9 pts loss):

Very demoralising, I still stand by my reasoning but it's a heavy loss to take - the only way is up after this debacle. I can hardly believe how it could all end up so wrong after 2 of the 3 bets were nicely in profit at one stage.