Tipster: Stanley

Bay Hill Invitational

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Sergio Garcia -111 @ Stan James [3pts]

Not necessarily expecting a poor week from Garcia, but he as neither regained the consistency and level of golf of a few years ago nor the level that Allenby is currently playing at. Allenby admitted to struggling with his game earlier in the season, but he grinds out results (four top-20s from five starts this year) and Garcia does not. Available as low as -150 elsewhere.

(also available at Aces, Olympic, Five Dimes, Pinnacle and Sirbet)

Retief Goosen to beat Sergio Garcia -169 @ Pinnacle

Allenby is at one level, but Goosen is certainly a level higher in world golf. These may be short odds, but Goosen is a real contender for this title and is another who grinds out top-20 finishes unlike the Spaniard.

(also available at Aces, Olympic, Sirbet and Five Dimes)

Adam Scott to beat Aaron Baddeley -137 @ SkyBet

Opposing Baddeley once again in matchups. He is not as consistent as Scott and while his form is improved over his 2003 injury-hit season, he has only one top-10 from seven starts this year compared to Scott's three from five.

Kirk Triplett to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ BetandWin [3pts]

Triplett's record is just as good: three top-10 finishes from five starts in 2004. He also finished 14th in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and it was only a second round 76 that saw him struggle in the FBR Open. They have had three common events this year and Triplett has finished higher in them all, just as he did on both the occasions that Baddeley played in this event.

(also available at Bet365)

Kirk Triplett to beat Rory Sabbatini -120 @ Aces

Can't argue with Sabbatini's suddenly improved form in the last five weeks, but he has played in this event twice and really struggled around Bay Hill each time, completing just three rounds of 74, 87 and 77. Does not augur well for this week.

Peter Lonard to beat Todd Hamilton -118 @ Expekt

Straightforward play of opposing the winner from the previous week if that win changed his life. Hamilton did birdie the last two holes to win the title, but he made hard work of the very easy 17th hole and it was only a career-shot on the 18th hole that delivered him victory. He had been throwing away the event all day long. Mentally drained, this should be a short week's work for Hamilton.

Duffy Waldorf to beat Scott Hoch -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [3pts]

One simple statistic for this play: over the past 12 months, Waldorf leads Hoch 6-0-0 h2h. That's enough for me!

Jeff Maggert to beat Ian Poulter +105 @ Five Dimes [3pts]

I don't understand this line. Poulter has never played in Florida, let alone at Bay Hill, while Maggert has been a regular here, making his last eight cuts on this course and finishing 2nd a couple of times in the process, just as he did in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month. Poulter is an extremely capable player, but mastering Bay Hill is a very tall order on his first visit. These two should be evenly matched, if not a slight advantage to Maggert.

Final update: 5-3-0; +4.52pts

Allenby/Garcia LOST by 7

Goosen/Garcia LOST by 6

Scott/Baddeley WON by 12

Triplett/Baddeley WON by 3

Triplett/Sabbatini WON by 7

Lonard/Hamilton LOST by 8

Waldorf/Hoch WON by 4

Maggert/Poulter WON by 4

Decent profit on tie matchups which have been a concern on this Tour so far in 2004. Only opposing Garcia was a poor decision.

Tipster: Shaker

Bay Hill Invitational

Matchup plays (2 pts):

Peter Lonard to beat Paul Casey -111 @ Stan James
Casey is still opposable in American tournaments I think, certainly a great deal more than in Europe, and with this being his first tournament at Bay Hill I wanted to take him on. Happy to do so with a steady player who has decent-enough form here and is first out in round one (Casey is first out in the afternoon).

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Fredrik Jacobson +100 @ BetandWin
For all Jacobson's promise, I don't think he deserves to be favourite over Maruyama this week. Maruyama is playing extremely well and has a fantastic run of results going (T4-2-T11 last three strokeplay tournaments) and he has experience of this course whereas Jacobson doesn't. I'm not sure the form of Jacobson's 4th last week at the Honda is worth that much as it was a strange course and, especially if you take Maruyama's finish to 2003 into account (3rd and 1st from last 3 events), the Swede's US form just doesn't match up since the purple patch he had in the middle of last year.

Final update: 2-0; +4.00pts

Lonard/Casey WON (Casey wd)
Maruyama/Jacobson WON by 4