Tipster: Andy

Bay Hill Invitational

Tournament Trades

Buy Scott Verplank over Darren Clarke 72H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. (M/U 3, Profit 0.75 pts)

Clarke is on a run of four missed cuts in strokeplay events. Only his excellent third in the WGC Matchplay has staved off worries of a complete downturn in his game. Alternatively, Verplank is very steady and is on a run of 6 consecutive strokeplay Top 20's (5 of which were Top 10). With this information to hand, buying at a 1.5 stroke handicap still seems value.

Sell Lee Westwood over Paul Casey 72H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts (M/U 10, Casey WD, Profit -5 pts)

For months we have been told about the comeback of Lee Westwood and since his win in Scotland it has just not materialised. Two top 10's (in Japan and South Africa) since that win in October is not the level Westwood was playing to when he was no. 1 in Europe and i would argue that Casey should be the favourite here. It is also 18 events since Westwood had a top 10 on this tour. Casey since Westwood's St Andrews win has 3 top 10's in far better company including a WGC event.

Buy Paul Casey over Ian Poulter 72H MB at 0.75 ch with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U -10, Casey WD, Profit -5.37pts)

Reasons for supporting Casey above, but of course with all spread plays it depends on the price and how you personally would price a market as to whether you trade or not. With this match up, i would place Casey as favourite by a good 2+ strokes so to get with him giving up 3/4 of one stroke is a fair shout. Poulter is a very risky proposition when it comes to match bets as he is so hit and miss. His PGA record is sparse having played the PGA major twice and finishing 61st and having a missed cut. Poor but not disgraced due to the quality of field and the inexperience he would take into these events. However, Casey has known form in the States that we can play up on here.

Sell Scott Verplank FP at 30 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts (M/U 3.5, Profit 13.25 pts)

Verplank has a very reliable FP record and his average over three years is actually a lot less than what you can trade him at here. His course record is 18th last year and a lowly 45th but that was 6 years ago and can be ignored as the course has changed somewhat in that time. Not the longest player but fairly accurate, the rains that have come in the last day or so will help his cause.

Sell Stuart Appleby FP at 32 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts (M/U 2, Profit 15 pts)

Appleby at Bay Hill reads poorly with make ups of 50 for the last 6 years. I find Appleby though a streaky player who can be judged on current form rather than course form, as he tends to string a few results together. He has three top 20's in 5 strokeplay events with a win amongst them so we will play up on that form rather than his Orlando form.

Sell Kirk Triplett FP at 33 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U 35, Profit -1 pt)

Anyone who backed Triplett in the Hope only to see him collapse on the Sunday will know he is not a man to be trusted when backing outright but he is a man to have on your side on FP bets. With a record this year of 4 top 20's and a MC he is confidently tipped to have a good enough week here to cover the spread. His Bay Hill record is good too, 2nd last year and a couple of high places at an event he frequents every year.

Sell Steve Flesch FP at 35 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts (M/U 42.5, Profit -3.75 pts)

Flesch was traded on FP last week and we will play up last weeks modest winnings again in the hope he does a little better. In Orlando he has a record of 10/31/mc/18 which would be a nett average FP of under 30 and with his current form being ok with 4 top 20s in 7 events (strokeplay) this year we are on a fair bet at 35.

Sell Fred Couples FP at 36 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (M/U 19, Profit 8.5 pts)

Fred notoriously plays well in better weather and his Florida record recently has backed that up. His 25th last week his poorest return in his last 3 events in the Sunshine state. A last round 79 in R4 in 2001 (his last visit) put the brakes on what would have been probably another Top 25 Florida visit but with fair form last week and a known downside to our betting bank of 7 points if it goes wrong its a confident pick.

Round One Trades

Buy Duffy Waldorf over Ian Poulter 18H MB at 0.75ch with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 19, Profit 13.69pts)

Reasons to oppose Poulter above coupled with Waldorf's 2004 record makes this possibly the value bet of the whole day. 36/20/5/4 is Duffy's strokeplay record this year and he is certainly playing above his normal level at the moment. With home advantage and off levels Waldorf is a sound bet.

Sell Aaron Baddeley over Jeff Maggert 18H MB at 2 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 31, Profit -21.75pts)

Baddeley is in a bit of form right now but he can notoriously throw up a big number from time to time, an example being the 75 in R4 last week when in contention. He has a record this year of 2 top 20's in 7 events compared to Maggert's 2 top 10's in 5. Maggert is in a bit of form and maybe should not be the outsider of these two on current form.

Buy Vijay Singh over Darren Clarke 18H MB at 6 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit -16.5 pts)

Clarke is being opposed in tournament bets and on this 18H bet as the price is arguably still too low even at 6. Singh is back after a break to recharge himself after such a long playing run. He was close to breaking the consecutive top 10 record then when he failed his form dipped considerably. It is worth the risk at the price to hope that his form is back and that he can beat Clarke in Thursday's 1st round.

Buy Stewart Cink over Ian Poulter 18H MB at 2.5 (spread free) with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit 12.38pts)

Utilising the "spread free" offer again to get with Cink at a very low price. Cink has three top 15's in a row at Bay Hill and hasn't been outwith the top 40 in 5 attempts since 1997. His current form is good too with a 14th, 10th 32nd and a 17th mixed in with a Last 32 exit at the matchplay. Poulter is opposed for all the reasons posted above. It is not usually a policy to oppose one player in so many markets but i feel in all three cases the prices offered are very good value indeed.

Sell Sergio Garcia over Fred Couples 18H MB at 3 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit -12 pts)

Basically just an opinion here that these two players should arguably be priced as "choice" at 0.75. With a three point start Couples is a fair trade at 3 when others go 2-5

Round Two Trades

Poor results yesterday but then with a complete turnaround in R2 in Singapore, hopefully similar success can be gained today.

Sell Jerry Kelly over Fred Couples 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit 15pts)

Couples had a poor 76 yesterday so therefore has been basically priced out of things by the firms. However, 4-7 is just far too high even allowing for yesterdays' stats.

Sell Sergio Garcia over Fred Couples 18H MB at 4 with Spreadex  for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit -6.75 pts)

Sell Aaron Baddeley over Jeff Maggert 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex  for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit 16.5 pts)

Buy Vijay Singh over Darren Clarke 18H MB at 6 with Spreadex  for 0.75 pts. (M/U -22, Profit -21 pts)

Buy Duffy Waldorf over Ian Poulter 18H MB at 1.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex  for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit 8.63 pts)

Same four trades again from round one, including a winner who hasn't been priced out of our range. The reasons are detailed in the Round One trades section and the results of Thursday should not put us off going in again at similar prices.

Round 4 trades

Sell T Hamilton over T Watson 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit 16.5pts)

A match up between a player who won last week but has struggled this week and who showed, in R3, the exertions taking their toll, shooting 77. Watson is a legend in his career twilight years who will put up the occasional good round with the younger guys. He should arguably be closely price matched here and isn't. In R2 he was choice with Tommy Armour who is arguably comparable to Hamilton.

Buy Vijay Singh over Justin Rose 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -13, Profit -15 pts)

Singh has let us down badly profit wise this week. However, when you do lose you have to appreciate that we are backing one player v. another. Unless its the last 9 on a sunday and the 2 guys are the only players in the running, the players themselves are not, they are playing the course. Singh shot a good 68 Thursday but was paired with a guy who shot 66. Friday, Singh did let us down a little with a 72 but once again Clarke came up with the goods. Singh is now a shot off the top 10 and although out the tournament he has a chance to cement some ranking points with Els out of it and Woods behind by 5. Both players will be really trying here for separate reasons but Singh is low at 7 on known scoring averages.

Summary. Weekly Total 12.08 Pts Profit

A week in which we would have made a fortune if a certain Fijian hadn't been playing, a quadruple bogey 9 on Sunday being an example of our luck. Otherwise, the 18's were ok, the FP bets excellent, but the 72H bets affected by a Casey withdrawal. Whether we got lucky and things would have got worse had he played on we will never know but certainly the Poulter bet was there for the taking with Poulter playing so poorly.

Tipster: Shaker

Bay Hill Invitational

Tournament Trade

Sell Ernie Els/Vijay Singh 72H MB at 0 with Spreadex for 1 pt (M/U -10, Profit = 10 pts)

Singh has been top 20 four times here in the last five years whereas Els' record has been very patchy, for him, since winning in 1998 on a very different course to what they're faced with now. Els has seven rounds over 73 in that time (that surely isn't the case anywhere else?) and, with him not impressing at all in the first three rounds on one of his all-time favourite courses in Dubai, I'd make Singh favourite here. Only three rounds over 73 for him in the same period (2 last year in finishing 20th) and you can bet your life he's been practising hard during his short break. Very happy to get this price.


Round One Trade

Sell Carl Pettersson/Scott McCarron 18H MB at -1.5 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U -16, Profit = 10.88 pts)

As I've said elsewhere, I don't think last week's form is worth a lot due to the unusual nature of the course. Therefore, Pettersson's time in the limelight there gives me only negative feelings towards his chances this week (as he led for a long way and really had the tournament to win) and ordinarily I think McCarron would be priced either 2-5 or 3-6 favourite in this matchup; he generally belongs in a different class to the Swede. McCarron had some bad results in the first half of last year but is a solid, consistent player when the pressure is off and is usually quite high up the 'scoring average before cut' statistics. Six of his last eight opening rounds have been under 70 with three of those being 66s. IF we ignore last week's opening 63, Pettersson has a record of only 6 sub-70 first rounds in 31 events since the start of last season (one 68 and five 69s).