Tipster: Shaker

BellSouth Classic

Back Harrison Frazar to win 1 pt @ 140 at Betfair (currently 150)
He is all or nothing this year and I think the chance is worth taking this week. He has 3 top 10s already but seems to start very badly on occasions and they are where the MCs come in. However these odds are very good compared to the top price of 66/1 he was for the recent Doral event and I'm happy to accept the offer. Was 3rd and 17th at this course in 2000 and 2001 respectively and should indeed be suited by the fact that the wayward bombers off the tee aren't punished badly here. Definitely has the ability once he gets involved, and he showed when nearly toppling Els at the Sony that he's ready to win now.

Back Brenden Pappas to win 1 pt @ 100 at Betfair (also 100/1 at Victor Chandler)
Brenden was a big improver in all areas last year and I really expect a win from him this season. Every chance it could be here as the nature of the course off the tee should suit him; he is long but always way down the driving accuracy stats. He had a fine week here last year despite coming off a missed cut which he is again this time, but that was his first of 2004 in 9 outings and he'll be throwing in a very high finish sometime soon, I'm sure of that. In fact the 9th place he finished here could've been bettered if he had just limited the mistakes - he was clear second behind the winner for number of birdies - and I can see a big run coming.
** Update at 16:25: 125/1 is now available with just about the last firm to price up, Tote **

Back Tom Pernice to win 1 pt @ 130 at Betfair
Nothing too techincal, I just think this is a decent price based on his last six events and his last three appearances here. He had 3 top 13 finishes in 5 events before last week, and only a last round collapse on that desperately difficult course masked another decent effort. He's a good putter, if a little inaccurate off the tee, and with that recent record of 5th, 34th and 6th here I think he is fair value; not many bookmakers even go 100/1.

Back J.J. Henry to win 1 pt @ 200 at Betfair (currently 210)
His career has been a little bit of a disappointment since graduating to the main tour, but he's always been in the back of my mind as a good player who could progress, and he caught my eye when gaining his best finish for over 18 months at the Nissan recently. That course, a little like this one, didn't punish the wayward drivers to any great degree and he competed off more of a level footing than he usually does. He was 1st for GIR in finishing 9th here last year and a repeat performance with a few more putts going in could mean a big week. The clincher, therefore, is his improved putting this season; he has always desperately struggled with this area of his game but he currently sits far higher in the putting stats that he ever has done. That Nissan of just over a month ago, in which he was 7th, was the last tournament we've had on non-Bermuda Grass greens and he putted very well there, so maybe he'll even enjoy coming off the Bermuda too. I'm so hopeful that I'd even go down to the general bookies price of 150/1 to get him on-side this week.


Half-way update:

Frazar makes the cut but has no chance, while Pernice and Henry put decent first-day afternoon rounds behind them with a 79 and a 77 respectively in round two to miss the cut. Pappas was rubbish on day one to seal his fate so a very poor week when hopes were really high.

4 points staked, 4 points lost.