Tipster: Stanley

BellSouth Classic

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Mike Weir to beat Thomas Bjorn -170 @ WSEX

Opposing the two place-only outright selections with a player who is simply in a different class. Weir has a win and three top-5 finishes in six starts this year, plus two top-5 finishes in his last four visits to Sugarloaf. Bjorn represented good value for his place odds, but he should struggle to beat the Canadian on the PGA Tour.

Mike Weir to beat Stewart Cink -130 @ WSEX

Similar hedge-type play here and at better odds. Cink is a course specialist, but very rarely seals the deal. Weir has not only won this year, but is the defending Masters champion and leads Cink 8-3-0 h2h over the past year. Even in Cink's backward, Weir's class should prevail.

(also available at Five Dimes)

Shaun Micheel to beat Ben Crane -125 @ Stan James

Class should also prevail in this matchup. The reigning PGA champion has finished ahead of Crane in four of five common events this year and in his current form - a best finish of 59th in his last five events - Crane shows very little promise of putting up a stout defense of his title.

Chris DiMarco to beat Scott McCarron -140 @ Five Dimes

Opposing another winner of this event who is struggling with his game. McCarron has a best finish of 53rd in his last four events (since the Tour moved away from the West Coast) and missed the cut last year. BY contrast, DiMarco has finished in the top-10 in three of the last five years at Sugarloaf and has a number of top-10 finishes already this season.

Duffy Waldorf to beat Niclas Fasth -145 @ WSEX

Take away his final round 84 in the Players Championship and this has been a very encouraging start to the season for Waldorf. There has been no such promise from Fasth and his current h2h deficit of 1-10-0 to Waldorf looks like being extended this week.

Dennis Paulson to beat Steve Lowery -161 @  Sportingbet and Sporting Odds

Having lost his Tour Card last season, Paulson has shown great resolve in seizing his limited opportunities this season. He gave away promising positions after the second and third rounds in his first two events of the year respectively, but has since stayed in contention throughout the weekend. He has finished in the top-25 in his last four starts. With Lowery having missed four of last six cuts and both his cuts in this event (Paulson has finished 3rd and 12th in his last two starts here), there is plenty of reason to side with Paulson this week.

Bo Van Pelt to beat Kevin Na -167 @ NordicBet

There is also good reason to wide with Van Pelt this week. He has had four top-15 finishes in nine starts this year and has finished in the top-30 in both of previous visits. That compares very well to Na three of his last four cuts and has never played on this course until this week.

Bo Van Pelt to beat John Rollins -149 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds

On the basis of course form, Rollins should have a good week. He has finished 5th and 6th in the last two years, but having missed his last five cuts and exited from the WGC Matchplay Championship in the 1st round, he will surely struggle to find his very erratic game this week. If he starts well, he has shown that he is a good player in contention, but he has yet to shoot a sub-par first round in 2004 so it can easily be discounted.

Paul Stankowski to beat Heath Slocum -102 @ Five Dimes [3pts]

After struggling to find anything but favourites that I like in these week's matchups, it is a relief to find one underdog that I think is wrongly priced. Slocum did win the Chrysler Classic of Tucson in February, but has not shown a great deal of form otherwise and Stankowski has finished higher in three of their five common events this year. But his advantage is much greater in relation to this course. Whereas Stankowski has made the cut in four of his last six visits, Slocum has never made a cut in any Georgia event, let alone his attempts on this title in the last two years. Stankowski should be the clear favourite in this matchup.

Final update: 5-4-0; +0.26pts

Weir/Bjorn WON by 12
Weir/Cink LOST by 9

Micheel/Crane LOST by 7

DiMarco/McCarron WON by 7

Waldorf/Fasth WON by 8

Paulson/Lowery LOST by 5

Van Pelt/Na LOST by 8

Van Pelt/Rollins WON by 7

Stankowski/Slocum WON by 1

Small profit and a win on the double-play. The rest were rather convincing wins and losses.

Tipster: Shaker

                                           BellSouth Classic

Matchup plays (2 pts):

Thomas Bjorn to beat Stewart Cink +135 @ Pinnacle
Whilst accepting Cink has a good record on his home course, I do expect a very good week from Bjorn. He finished above Cink the only time he's played here and I see no reason why he cannot do so again. And when these odds are offered I have to accept; why is +135 available on Bjorn vs. Cink when he is best-priced +105 to beat DiMarco, -110 to beat McCarron, -111 to beat Flesch and -120 to beat Huston?

Ben Crane to beat Duffy Waldorf +125 @ Pinnacle
Again expecting a good week from the selection. He won this event in devastating fashion last year and hasn't done too badly so far this year either. I'm of the opinion that he'll become quite a big name and, again, this is a price I cannot refuse. OK, Waldorf has had a good run but he's not good enough to keep that going for ever, and who knows how he'll react to the torture he suffered at Sawgrass last Sunday. 84 then, he entered the Players on the back of a missed cut too, so I feel Crane has every chance here.

Harrison Frazar to beat Deane Pappas -102 @ Five Dimes
I've recommended Frazar on my Betfair page and have to go with him again when he's priced as outsider against a clearly inferior player. Pappas may have two half-decent finishes here (for him), but neither of them match Frazar's 3rd and 17th places here, in 2000 and 2001 respectively, and his overall form doesn't even come close.


Final update: 2-1; +2.52 pts

Bjorn/Cink LOST by 13

Crane/Waldorf WON by 5
Frazar/Pappas WON by 2

Not a lot to report, Bjorn was several shots up during the early stages of round one but then the players went in completely the wrong directions! After that I'm just happy that the other two scraped home.