Tipster: Andy

BellSouth Classic

Round One Trades

Buy Padraig Harrington over Steve Lowery 18H MB at 9 for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit 3 pts)

Freely available price for Harrington in a match where he is arguably priced a good few points too low. Lowery missed the cut at the Players with rounds of 76/78 which was a poor weeks work after a fair 15th at Bay Hill. That Bay Hill finish though was much higher than he might have anticipated after R3 but a 76 R4 left him 15th. Previously at Doral he shot a R1 82. Something is obviously up with Lowery's game just now so Harrington is value at 9. Finally, Lowery has played here twice, he has yet to make the weekend.

Round Two Trades

Buy Padraig Harrington over Steve Lowery 18H MB at 9 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit 9.75 pts)

This one was tight yesterday. Lowery led for most of the round only for Harrington to take the lead for the first time on the last hole. Due to the closeness though, they are priced up today at a similar price so should be traded again.

Buy David Toms over Chris Smith 18H MB at 6 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -37, Profit -32.25 pts)

This has been priced with too much emphasis on R1 scoring. This match would have MU at -28 yesterday as Toms shot 76 to Smith's 70. Toms though is a far better player than Smith so 6 based on one 18H round is low.

Buy Mike Weir over Rory Sabbatini 18H MB at 6 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 25, Profit 14.25 pts)

Similar to the Cink/Toms trades, in that it is a trade on a R1 loser. Weir though wasn't as bad as the others with a 73, Sabbatini shooting 68. My only concern is whether both Toms and Weir feel they have played their way out of winning this event and will question the wisdom of being here rather than practising at Augusta. Even allowing for that factor though, the prices are far too low for all 4 suggested trades.

Buy Stewart Cink over Tim Petrovic 18H MB at 3.5 (S/F) with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit 11.62 pts)

Deja Vu time as we now have the 3rd player to struggle yesterday who is now within an acceptable price range. Using the saying "form is temporary, class is permanent" we suggest the price is is too low for a match up between these two.

Round Three Trades

Buy Zach Johnson over Craig Bowden 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit 12 pts)

Its the battle of the promoted players in the last pairing tonight. Johnson was the overwhelming star of the Nationwide tour last year and came up to the main tour with a lot of people forecasting big things. Bowden came up quietly but has performed ok in
his events so far. Two top 20's and 4 missed cuts suggest that he is a bit hit and miss and it has to be noted when he was 5th after R2 at the Honda he fell back to 14th after R3. Johnson has a better record in 04' on the main tour with 3 top 20's and only 2 missed cuts. Importantly though, two of the top 20's have came in the last 2 events he has played and he is hopefully on course for a third this week.

Buy Chris DiMarco over Grant Waite 18H MB at 8 with Sporting Index  for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit  -18pts)

DiMarco started really poorly in R1 with a 75 but got himself into the weekend with a far more accomplished 70 in R2. Waite got in with a 73 and 72 and it continues a run now to 15 rounds where he had one score of 69 but the other 14 rounds were in the 70's. Waite's best posting on the PGA tour this year is 40th and to be able to get with a player at the high end of the world rankings at the price offered is most definitely value.

Buy Stewart Cink over David Morland 18H MB at 11 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit 6 pts)

Cink gave us a good return yesterday and is tipped to follow up today against a vastly inferior player. Much is made of the fact that Cink lives on the course and is regularly tipped as a winner of this event. Although that confidence has never been matched by a win he does do well at this event with 5 top 10 finishes out of 6 . Morland has done well to get into the weekend this week as his 2004 record is shocking. 5 events, 5 missed cuts with his only success coming in the Las Americas tour in Puerto Rico where he was 2nd. He also played in a Nationwide event last week but missed the cut in that too. Obvioulsy at the price, Cink needs to win by more than a couple of strokes to make it worthwhile but the gap in quality is large enough to suggest Cink should be about a 13-16 shot here.

Round Four Trades

Buy Mike Weir over Chris Couch 18H MB at 10 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit 2.25 pts)

Final bet of the week and topically its on the current Masters champion as we head into Masters week. With results this year including three top 20's in a row, he has tailed off just this last 10 days with a MC at the Players and a "never in contention" here. Even allowing for this he is low against this opponent. Couch is another "promoted" player from the Nationwide who has struggled badly. 5 MC from 6 and a 62nd place at the Bob Hope suggests he is in for a quick trip back to the Nationwide unless he picks up soon. Couch has posted only 3 sub 70 rounds in 19 attempts this year, two at two of the easy courses used for the "Hope" and one 69 here Saturday.

Summary: 8.62 pt profit

More wins than losses but two large losses over the two events meant a losing week overall. Roll on the Masters !!

Tipster: Shaker

BellSouth Classic

Round One Trades:

Buy Brenden Pappas/Billy Mayfair 18H MB at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts
Mayfair has next to no form here, having not broken 70 in 12 rounds and obtaining just a solitary 21st place in 2001 in the middle of four missed cuts. He's made a few cuts this season but his scoring is still pretty erratic and the improving Pappas is now quite the opposite. His first missed cut of 2004 came at the Players last week but I can easily forgive that because he doesn't exactly drive the ball accurately! Prior to that he had shot under par in his previous 8 opening rounds, and 6 of those were under 70. The wayward driving will not be an issue here with little or no rough and 9th last year, with rounds of 71-69-69-70 in only his second BellSouth, shows he easily has what it takes to better Mayfair today. Tee-off 13:54 UK time.
Result:
Mayfair 68, Pappas 76: MU -34, Loss 17.75 pts
So, Mayfair's first sub-70 round here in 13 attempts - also his joint-2nd lowest of the season (29 rounds played now) - and Pappas plays unusually rubbish ... don't know why I expected any different really.

Sell Mike Weir/Chris DiMarco 18H MB at 3 with SportsSpread for 0.25 pts
Obviously two top players, with Weir overall being the best, but DiMarco is often the faster starter and the price is enough for me to give it a small go. They both have had good finishes here but Weir's last 3 rounds have been 77-76-73 (MC last year), he opened with a 76 in 2001, and I'm not sure he should be rated this hot a favourite for a round one matchup. Both missed the cut at the Players but that was much less of a surprise for DiMarco than Weir on that tough track, and with DiMarco having had round 1 scores of 68-69-67 here the last three years, on the way to finishes of 6-23-9, I think he has a good chance of winning this. 17:17 UK.
Result:
Weir 73, DiMarco 75: MU 16, Loss 3.25 pts
Still can't do it right despite opposing a hot favourite that shoots over par. Really poor effort by DiMarco.


Round Two Trades:

Sell Hal Sutton/Corey Pavin 18H MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts
Their 2004 form doesn't compare (Sutton's is MC/MC/59/44/MC/MC/MC and Pavin's is 20/69/10/59/15/33) and anyone making Sutton favourite is plain wrong in my opinion. Sutton's last three second rounds have been 76-77-77 whereas Pavin shot a fine 67 to make the cut last week after opening with a 74 and is the only one of this pair who is remotely competitive any more. Pavin cannot possibly putt any worse than he did yesterday and I make this a fine bet. Tee-off 13:36 UK time.
Result:
Pavin 74, Sutton 74: MU 0, Even
Sutton did probably better than expected as it was a very difficult day and it was another disappointing result for me as Pavin couldn't hold onto a 2 shot lead with 5 to play.

Sell Daniel Chopra/Arjun Atwal 18H MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts
Atwal has adjusted far better to life on tour than Chopra, and it can only be yesterday's round which has led to Chopra being favourite. Coming into this week Atwal has made 4 from 7 cuts and shot 9 from 22 rounds under 71, while Chopra has made just a single cut from 8 and shot only 5 from 20 rounds under 71. Atwal's 2nd rounds have been better than his first 5 from 7 times whereas Chopra's 2nd rounds have been worse in 5 of his 8 tournaments so far, and after contrasting front nines yesterday Atwal played the back nine two shots better. The fact Atwal started 77-68 at Doral also gives me extra hope that we'll see a turnaround today. 14:12 UK.
Result:
Chopra 73, Atwal 78: MU 25, Loss 12.5 pts
Chopra hit his irons better and putted better than Atwal, simple as that. Somehow again managed to support a player who shoots one of the worst scores of the day, getting to be quite a habit.


Round Three Trades

Sell Lee Janzen/Luke Donald 18H MB at 1 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts
Cannot believe that Janzen is favourite, I'd have snapped up a sell of zero so to be able to at 1 is brilliant. Donald has four top 25s from 7 events this year whereas Janzen has just the one top 30 from 8; Donald has clearly stepped up a rung this season and he is quite simply not as erratic as Janzen. Even in the last 6 weeks Janzen has followed two second round 66s with third rounds of 76 and 78 so you'd have to be very hopeful indeed of a juicy reaction to yesterday's fine 67. Tee-off 17:21 UK time.
Result:
Janzen 68, Donald 71: MU 19, Loss 13.5 pts
And the purpose of research is? May as well completely ignore past records ... opposed Janzen but he shot a very fine round and 6 birdies with very few mistakes was almost impossible to beat. Was this the same Lee Janzen that I know?

Buy Brian Gay/Scott Hend 18H MB at 5 with Spreadex & IG Sport for 0.5 pts
Hend has missed the cut on all five of his PGA appearances this season, not to mention another just last week in the lower league of the Nationwide Tour, and how he proposes to follow yesterday's round of 8 birdies and just 2 bogeys, I just don't know. Gay was in my mind as a player to follow in 2002 and is a very fine putter indeed, but he had a poor year in 2003 and is looking to get his career going again. He has shot 11 of 16 rounds this year under 72 and having just the two bogeys so far this week indicate how well he's playing. 18:42 UK.
Result:
Hend 68, Gay 69: MU -13, Loss 9 pts
Unsurprisingly Hend fires by far the closest 2nd shot to the final hole of the whole field on day three to make eagle and win by one against Gay, who didn't have one bogey on his card today. Well played both of them today.

Sell Zach Johnson/Craig Bowden 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts
Sorry to disagree with Andy, but I am taking on Johnson here despite the likelihood that he is the better player of this pair overall. I don't think Bowden's third rounds of 69 and 72 in the two tournaments he started best this season were bad efforts but it's the inconsistency of Johnson catches my eye here. It's inevitable he'll suffer from that this season, but 3rd rounds recently of 77 and 75 after 2nd rounds of 68 show how hard it will be to follow yesterday's 66. In fact, in his last four tournaments he has had six 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounds under 70 and on five occasions his following round was 6 or more shots worse. And, of course, we have to realise the pressure he'll feel by teeing off as clear leader today. 19:00 UK.
Result:
Johnson 68, Bowden 72: MU 22, Loss 9 pts
Quite incredibly Johnson completes a full house of players I opposed shooting 4 under 68s. Just the one bogey from our man Bowden, who didn't disgrace himself at all, but it's currently impossible for me to call anything correctly. Well done to Johnson who looks a great addition to the PGA Tour ranks.

A ton of research done and time invested is counting for absolutely nothing and I am at a loss to know what I can do differently to get something right. I analyse carefully and believe in every bet I put up and I still can't fathom quite how so many have gone wrong ... I still agree with all I've written!


Round Four Trades

Buy David Peoples/Neal Lancaster 18H MB at 1.5 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts
Hard to be confident given it all going wrong recently but I can't help but feel strongly that these two trades are the correct thing to do. I make Peoples a far steadier proposition than Lancaster and particularly so in the heat of a Sunday leaderboard. Peoples has struggled with his iron game so far this year, hence the poor form he has shown, but it seems to be back this week and, after a steady Players Championship, a good round looks a real possibility. Lancaster, on the other hand, is capable of any score on a Sunday, as an 80-79 weekend last week shows. He's already shown how he can struggle here with a 75 on Friday, where the flag positions would've been much easier than they will be today, and also a round one 81 last year. Tee-off 17:15 UK time.
Result:
Peoples 73, Lancaster 74: MU 13, Profit 8.62 pts
Wow, we nailed one! Despite missing what was reportedly a 16 inch putt on 16 when two up with three to play, Peoples bounced back with birdie on the last and Lancaster's 3-putt there was very welcome.

Sell Ben Crane/Mark Hensby 18H MB at 2 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts
This match is based entirely on reputations, mostly Crane's and how he won last year's event. Hensby is a new-boy to the tour and is ignored to a fair extent because his name is not known. But since February his completed events show finishes of 7th/3rd/MC/13th/15th and when you compare that to Crane's MC/59th/MC/60th/66th it makes you wonder why Crane is a 2-5 favourite here. Of course, Crane is the more experienced and is the defending champion, but everyone will be expecting a similar 63 to last year's final round from him and it could easily have an adverse effect. He is not immune to disappointing on the weekend as he had a real shot at the Bob Hope earlier this season but struggled quite badly, and he also shot a 4th round 78 last week. 17:42 UK.
Result:
Crane 73, Hensby 67: MU -28, Profit 22.5 pts
Now we're cooking. Hensby played superbly well to surely enhance his reputation, and he really is putting together a fine run of finishes. Crane didn't play too well and it was good to actually enjoy a match where our player was well in the ascendancy throughout.


Weekly Figures: 2-6-1; Loss 34.88 pts
God, how can a loss like that ever be pleasing? But somehow it is and the most desperate of fortnights has finished on a really high note. I'm glad I stuck in there and staked according to my feelings on the Sunday choices, it gives me hope that the roller-coaster is about to go on an upward curve. I don't feel that I'm advising bad bets or that my reasoning is way wrong, and I hope to soon be well back in profit and able to look back on recent times as a 'character-building' period!