Tipster: Andy

Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

Pre Event Trades

Bet 1 - Sell Jay Haas FP at 35 with Cantor Sports for 0.5pts. M/U 3

Haas has a good record here, playing every year and winning way back in 1988. In what is essentially a putting contest, Haas is very high up on putting stats. In fact, he has the lowest aggregate putts taken for those who have played in both 02' and 03'. In 2002 he led with a round to go but a poor R5 left him Tied 16th and last year finished 2nd just behind Mike Weir. This seems a fairly high quote for a player with fond memories of the event and good recent course form.

Bet 2 - Sell Kirk Triplett FP at 32 with Sporting Index for 0.5pts M/U 12

Triplett's course form from 1997 on is 17/10/18/10/56/6/16. So at the price offered, Triplett has covered it six years from seven. Two weeks ago he performed really well to finish 6th at the Mercedes so he also has a bit of current form to relate to. Some people take to these 6 hour round pro-am's and some don't and going by his scoring Triplett certainly does. 32 is just a little too high for someone showing the above form in both recent weeks and in the event.

Bet 3 - Buy Retief Goosen FP at 22 with SportsSpread for 0.5pts. M/U 27.5

Strange port of call for Goosen, he never usually plays pro-am's and has gone on record of saying he doesnt like the long rounds that are the norm in these events. Also, as it is a pro-am event the courses will be set up to be as forgiving as possible. So in effect we have a putting contest this week. All this adds up to 22 being too high for Goosen even although he has covered it both starts this season and in 7 of his last 8 events in 2003. However, i still think we have value buying as low as 22 in an event of this nature.

Bet 4 - Sell Fredrik Jacobson FP at 33 with Spreadex for 0.5pts. M/U 50

This event is perfect for a player like Jacobson. Sometimes held back by his poor driving, he has a brilliant short game to negate this. So on easy courses that are a birdie competition he should be well suited. In his other visits to the PGA tour last year he finished 5/36/3/8/mc. So he can play this tour as well, or better, than most Europeans. An outside bet for the title here, 33 is too high by a good 3 to 4 points.

Bet 5 - Sell Chris Di'Marco FP at 27.5 with Spreadex for 0.5pts. M/U 50

Spreadex offer to give you a bet at the mid of the spread when you place 4 bets. With 2 bets on the Dunhill and Jacobson above, it gives us the chance to trade Di'Marco at a price that becomes good value with their commission wiped away. Di'Marco has been 6th and 3rd last two years although his form previously was nothing to write home about. A player who has a great % record for top 5/10/20 places without having a good win record, very difficult to catch when playing the outrights but of no concern to FP sellers. He averages a top10 place one in every three events played and has beaten 27.5 in over 60% of his tournaments. So the value is in the sell in what is a weak field overall.

Post Round 3 Trades

Bet 6 - Buy Jay Haas FP at 12 with Cantor Sports for 0.5pts. M/U 3

Very rarely will I recommend an early closure of a bet but in this case i will. You should only ever close a bet if you feel that the updated price on offer is value in the opposite direction. In this case i think it possibly is. Haas is 2nd but with four of the current top 10 playing the Indian Wells course which is the easiest in the rotation it wouldn't take much for Haas to fall down the leaderboard quite easily. At this stage, with 36 holes to go, it seems logical to take the 11.5pts profit that we can and accept that we may be giving up more but are ensuring we do not end up with a lot less. The upside to this closure is undoubtedly bigger than the downside.

Post Round 4 Trades

Bet 7 - Buy Kirk Triplett FP at 5 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. M/U 12

OK, after suggesting yesterday you should hardly ever close a bet I am going to advise another. There are justifiable circumstances though. Note the following information on Triplett's record when in contention. In 2003 when starting the final round bang in contention (2nd 3rd and 4th after R3), Triplett finished 5th, 16th, 14th.

Keith Elliot in his Golf Annual picks up on this fact and notes that before his win last year in Reno (where he came from off the pace with a 63) he had been in contention 3 times in 02' and his record, like in 03', deteriorated each time. It would seem logical therefore to take 13.5 pts out and accept that if he does stay Top 3 tonight he has changed a habit.
 

Summary

Better week with the PGA than the Sunshine tour. After advising closures of Haas and Triplett it would have paid to let it run. Triplett certainly looked liked he couldn't handle the pressure and must be considered as a buy in running in the future when he is in a similar position. Jacobson had a 7 on the last to ensure a 50 M/U when he could have finished in the top 40 with a normal finish and DiMarco never contended at all. All in all, a good return and i look forward to the new week and will attempt to get the season back on track which i am extremely confident of doing.  A 8pt profit on this tour and on we go to next week...

Tipster: Shaker

Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

In-running bet 1 (after round 1):

Buy Kirk Triplett/Chris Riley 90 hole Match Bet 0.5 pts at 8 @ SportsSpread:

This firm settle on 10 pts for the winner of this match bet plus 3 pts per shot won by. Therefore this is potentially volatile!
Triplett is already 2 shots in front of Riley, despite their first rounds seeing Triplett only birdie 1 of his 5 par fives when Riley was birdieing 4 of them, and I expect him to go further clear, as do other spread firms judging by their updated FPs. Triplett was vastly superior when it came to par 3 and par 4 performance in round 1 and in all likelihood outplayed Riley by some way. Triplett's record here at the Hope gives him 8 top twenty finishes from his last 9 attempts while Riley has played here once and finished T37. With Triplett some places in front of Riley for Par 5 performance in 2003 he should soon start scoring as well as Riley on the long holes and, all things considered, a big week looks very much on the cards for him. On top of all that, he has the experience that is vital here, he came into this week in good form after 6th in the Mercedes, and he is much more consistent than Riley overall. Triplett looks to have absolutely everything in his favour in this match and I can find no negatives.
MU = 0 ... 4 pts loss.

In-running bet 2 (after round 2):

Buy Chris Dimarco/Briny Baird 90 hole Match Bet 0.5 pts at 7 @ SportsSpread:

Rules as per the above bet. DiMarco is so much more suited to these courses than Baird and has momentum after yesterday's round on the easiest course. I feel he is very likely indeed to carry on scoring low now there is virtually no chance of winning and therefore no pressure on him. I cannot see Baird outperforming DiMarco from hereon in (they are all square at the moment) and could even envisage the former missing the cut.
MU = -21.25 ... 14.13 pts loss.

In-running bet 3 (after round 2):

Sell Justin Leonard FP 0.5 pts at 27 @ Cantor Sport:

Admittedly it was a slightly disappointing performance from him on the hardest course yesterday after starting the round so well but he has finished T8 and T6 the last two years with a 70 on his card and he looks all set to score well today on the easiest course. He is currently T30 with 10 others but I feel sure he will do well for the rest of the tournament and finish at least top 15.
MU = 32.5 ... 2.75 pts loss.

In-running bet 4 (after round 4):

Sell Kirk Triplett/Chris Riley 90 hole Match Bet 1 pt at 34 @ SportsSpread:

This is closing out In-running bet 1 for a 26 x 0.5 pt profit and then adding a further 0.5 pt sell of Triplett.
He has simply played TOO well and it is unlikely that being in the final group with two birdie machines will enable Triplett to play to his best. Over the last two seasons he has consistently failed when starting pay-day in a pressure position and with Riley being a streaky player in a position of no pressure it's entirely possible that Riley will shoot by far the better round today. Triplett's good course form means little now the heat is really turned up and he has admitted in his press conferences that the fact he has no bogeys in 72 holes is on his mind. I fully expect that record to not last the 90 holes.
MU = 0 ... 34 pts profit.

Summary (Weekly total = 13.12 pts profit):

DiMarco was so incredibly disappointing in a situation where absolutely everything was in place for him, Baird did what was hoped but DiMarco's triple bogey on the final hole on day 3 was unreal. Leonard's problem was not kicking on in round 3 whilst playing the easiest course. He only made 1 bogey in 54 holes after the advice but he just didn't make anywhere near enough birdies.
Kirk Triplett we got absolutely perfectly correct all week (sorry to gloat but we did!) with the jewel in the crown being the closure prior to the final round and the additional sell on top when his Sunday shakiness was absolutely expected. Knowing the player in opposition, Riley, is liable to streaky putting and low scores was ideal and sealed the decision. He definitely didn't disappoint, playing the last 8 holes in 6 under par. Cheers guys!