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Betfair Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Shaker

**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. Started the account with £1000 and my rate will be £20 per Point. The stakes will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me) unless I am laying short odds. With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you wish to take these plays as recommendations, please do so but be aware that I can only manage the bets that I have actually struck and cannot give updates for bets you may have had (or not had) which are different to what is put up here.** 

Booz Allen Classic @ Betfair


FINAL RESULT:

Profit =
40.36 pts (after commission)


Bank is now £1499.73 after 11 weeks (Up 24.99 pts overall).
Screenshot of the week's business below.


Summary:
Well done Adam!



Page Update #3:
(Winner market)
Lay Adam Scott 25 pts @ 1.16
The price is a little large for the situation, I feel, but I think I shall not be stubborn and secure the nice profit we deserve for this week. Laying 25 pts @ 1.16 gives us about 30 pts here if Scott somehow doesn't win, and about 40 pts if he does. I'm strangely, given the Scott position, a little upset over Beem's collapse as he for all the world looked like proving me right and challenging Scott for the title. Indeed, he was traded at 2/1 on Betfair at one time! After the Woosnam collapse in France it is a very good job that Scott did what he did and at the end of the day the profit for the week across both tours has to be pleasing ... if not perfect!!
All bets now matched, click the image below to see the screenshot of my book.


Page Update #2:
(Winner market)
Lay Adam Scott 10 pts @ 2.56
A dilemma here as not only is Scott trading at under 2.6, but Beem is in single figures too. Add to the mix that the three closest challengers are unlikely winners Olin Browne & Glen Day, plus Charles Howell, who has let slip many more winning opportunities than he's taken, and it's clear we have a fantastic chance of having the winner of this tournament. In fact I'll almost be surprised if one of them doesn't do it. So, the question is do we not lay at all .. or if we do, for how much?
I've decided to lay Scott just for a little as, despite having proven beyond doubt he is a fantastic front-runner and looking like he is in absolutely top form, he has got to follow a fabulous 62, and also he is actually a short price considering we're only at half-way. He looks very much like the winner but I'll just take 10 points out of him to ensure some returns, and still that would leave the current profit on him at almost 50 points.
Beem is playing all-round good golf, being aggressive, hitting greens and also putting well. He is not afraid to go low and has proved before that he enjoys the pressure of trying to win - who can forget holding off Tiger to win the USPGA? In his favourite tournament he has to have high hopes for the weekend and I wouldn't be surprised to see him emerge as the main challenger to Scott. I fancy taking a little gamble by not laying him now, keeping him as the big winner, and hope he can maintain his challenge at the very least.


Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back Adam Scott 3 pts @ 22
Back Rich Beem 1 pt @ 80
I think this is a tournament that a poor putter could easily win and there are few worse in the upper echelons of world golf than Adam Scott! If he putts averagely I think he can contend and if he putts well I think he'll win, and 20/1+ seems a very fair price despite his apparently poor form. He's had a lean time, results wise, since winning the Players Championship, missing plenty of cuts and securing only one good result, a tied 11th at Wentworth. That was a very welcome weekend 67-67 there and although he didn't exactly follow it up a fortnight later at the Buick Classic, his long game was in fine shape at Shinnecock last week; his driving average and GIR stats were both over 60%, which was very decent there, and it was just the greens that he couldn't handle. There is no shame in that and I have a feeling he's about to bounce back to form and there are few, if any, in this field able to live with him if he does.
This is Rich Beem's favourite tour stop of the whole season for two reasons. One is that he secured his first ever win here, on only his 12th tour start in 1999, and the other is that the course sets up very well for him and suits his naturally aggressive game perfectly. He has 2nd and 17th places the last two years here to add to that win and with the splattering of recent form he's shown, I feel he's worth a shout. Four weeks ago he had a good start at the FedEx before sticking two balls in the water at their desperately difficult 11th, but even then he shot 64 in round two and eventually got into the top 3 with just over a round to go. He did fall away tamely after that but the end result didn't do him justice and he went on to do OK the following week at the Memorial as well. Tied 12th after two rounds, and tied 20th after three, it showed him to be still playing well, and then last week at the US Open he only missed the cut by one. He hit 64% of greens there (as with Scott, very good figures) and I think his final back nine of eight pars and one birdie was encouraging. Put all the bits of 'hidden' recent form together and match it with this being his favourite course of the season and I'm pretty hopeful of a big show.