Buick Open

72-HOLE PLAYS FINAL RESULT: 3-0-0; +6.00pts

Day/Ogilvie WON by 8
Funk/Hoch VOID (Funk dns)
Kelly/Casey WON by 5
Verplank/Choi WON by 7
Sluman/Rollins VOID (Rollins dns)

Only three plays survived, but three comfortable wins to compensate for the poor outright plays.

Round Three Plays

Brian Gay to beat Paul Casey 2.62 @ Bet 365 TIED, (-1.00)
Priced on familiarity rather than scoring facts, 2.62 in a 2 ball is way too high on two players who are not far apart on US form.

Round One Plays

Scott McCarron to bear Omar Uresti and Dicky Pride 2.0 @ Totalbet and UK Betting WON (+1.00 pt)
In a day of very tight prices, this is the only bet that appeals and is more a combined lay on the two outsiders than a belief that McCarron himself is good value. The price should probably be quite a bit lower.

Further 72-hole plays (1.5pts):

Glen Day to beat Joe Ogilvie -103 @ Five Dimes
Siding with Day primarily on course form. In three visits to Warwick Hills, Ogilvie has a finish of 69th, a missed cut and a post-1st round withdrawal. Day has made the cut in five of the last six years, finishing ahead of Ogilvie each year that Ogilvie played and has finished ahead of him in their last two common events.

Fred Funk to beat Scott Hoch -106 @ Pinnacle
Siding with Funk in the matchups as well as the outrights. He has dominated this matchup this year with a 7-1-1 h2h record against Hoch in 2004 and he does have a very good record around this course. Hoch hasn't played here for five years and his last top-10 finish at Warwick Hills was back in 1991.
(available generally)

72-hole plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Jerry Kelly to beat Paul Casey -110 @ Bet365 [3pts]
Casey is not at his best at the moment and it is surprising that he is playing in this event when his place in the Ryder Cup is far from secure. He has not played this course previously and his form on the PGA Tour is erratic at best. Better to side with a player who has played here three times previously and ranks 2nd only to Tiger Woods in terms of consecutive cuts made on Tour.

Scott Verplank to beat K.J. Choi -125 @ Centrebet
An insurance against Choi as an outright selection, perhaps? But Verplank is the 3rd ranked player on Tour in terms of consecutive cuts, so is a dependable player in matchups even if a little suspect on Sundays when near the top of the leaderboard. He leads Choi 7-3-1 h2h this year, so it should take a place win for Choi for this matchup to be a loser.

Jeff Sluman to beat John Rollins -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Sluman is even more dominant in this matchup. Rollins has finished ahead of him on only three occasions in 14 common events this year. And there is a big difference in course form as well. Rollins missed the cut by six shots on his debut last year, while Sluman has missed just two cuts in 20 attempts since 1983. Should be straightforward.