Tipster: Andy

Buick Invitational

Bet 1 - Buy Tiger Woods over Bob Burns 18H MB at 16 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. (MU 0, Profit -8 pts)

A high price to pay here, but the difference in these two players is arguably more than the price offered. Woods has little current form to go on but his course form is exemplary. Top 5 the last three seasons compares favourably with Burns' 54th, 39th and MC. Burns' current form is no better, 59th, 41st and MC in the last 4 weeks.

Bet 2 - Sell Robert Allenby FP at 30 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (MU 42, Profit -6 pts)

This price is too high. Other firms go 27-30 and 28-31 and they are closer to the correct quote. I have his mean FP M/U at 25 so a 5 pt advantage is worth taking. Good form on his own tour pre-Christmas with a 6th and a win, Allenby came back and was 14th 2 weeks ago in Phoenix. He normally doesn't play here and only has a 30th place 5 years ago to show for course form. A fair bet at the price, but don't take any lower than 29.

Bet 3 - Sell Fredrik Jacobson FP at 33 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. (MU 50, Profit -8.5pts.)

If Allenby is value at 30 then Jacobson is also value at Cantor's 33. Fredrik has went up a gear in the last 12 months, winning multiple events in Europe but more importantly for this weeks bet, showing decent form in the US. Form figures of 5/36/3/8/mc/50 in 2003 was followed by a 9th at Scottsdale in the FBR. 33 is too high, i have it at 27 so once again it is fair value. Accept 32 but no lower.

Bet 4 - Buy Vijay Singh over Matt Kuchar 18H MB at 15 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (MU 13, Profit -1 pt)

Two 18H Match Bets on day one and both on players who need to win by a few strokes to make it worthwhile. However, for reasons similar to the Woods play above, this price is still value. Singh needs no reasoning here, reasons for the opposition of Kuchar though are strong. 48th last week was a highlight, with missed cuts for two weeks previous and a MC here in 2002. He is also now averaging over one in two MC's and his greens and putting stats are very poor. The price is high but is still value.

Bet 5 - Buy Fredrik Jacobson over Thomas Bjorn 72H MB at 0.75 with Sporting Index using their "Matchmakers option" for 0.5 pts. (MU -12, Profit -6.375pts)

The positive reasons for Jacobson are posted above. Bjorn on the other hand has a poor record in the States. 13 missed cuts from 29 events, and although a lot of these were majors or WGC events he did not perform too well. He has stated a desire to play more in the States and may in time correct that record to a more acceptable level. However, this is his first visit to Torrey Pines and he will probably want to feel his way in this week and hope to peak at the more meaningful events in the Spring. Fredrik should be favourite on this one.

Post Round 1 Trades

Bet 6 - Buy Tiger Woods over Bob Burns 18H MB at 15 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. (MU 16, Profit 0.5 pt)
Going to advise Tiger again on the easier course and with a point less to cover than yesterday. Woods in an interview after R1 stated that he felt like was just feeling his way in again after his time off but was happy with the fact that although he is well down the leaderboard he was actually quite high of those who played the tougher South course. He remarked that to contend here this week he will now have to go out and shoot low on the easier course and I suggest we back him to do so and recoup our losses of yesterday. The easier course played nearly 4 strokes easier so expect a better score from Woods and hope that it is enough to see off Burns today.

Note: This was originally posted as a buy at 10-13 with Spreadex but this price was an error as their correct price was 14-17.

Post Cut Summary -

No success on the 18H bets at all, but we got very lucky in that Tiger was behind for long periods on both matches and came back to tie on Thursday, and win by 2 on Friday due to a late collapse by Burns. Singh just won as well after being level going down the last. On the 72H MB we are slightly behind and on the FP's we have both players safely in and hopefully ready to challenge over the weekend.

Post Round 2 Trades

Bet 7 - Buy Tiger Woods over Mathias Gronberg 18H MB at 15 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts. (MU 16, Profit 0.5 pts)

Putting up another bet on Woods but once again more for the negatives associated to his opponent. Whilst Burns played above himself enough to contend in his matches, Woods didn't perform to his norm. Today, we can only hope Woods takes a step up but with Gronberg we have a player who, although he won the 2003 Q School, has never really performed in the States. In 10 attempts in the last 6 seasons here he has been in the Top 50 only once. Currently Tied 21st, he has a fair chance of doing so this week but has noticeably taken 7 shots more on the harder course in R2 than on the now unused North course. Woods shot 2 more on the easy but on this course 2 less. If he can improve on that today he could finally start to win us some money this week.

Summary

Profit on week -28.875pts.

Deja vu again, albeit this week the 18Hs didn't quite perform the way they have been we still made a small profit over the two tours. Other results are in a run that I cannot explain. However, bad runs can turn to good runs so roll on next week.
 

Tipster: Shaker

Buick Invitational

Bet 1 - Buy Jay Haas over Billy Andrade 18H MB at 6 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts. (MU 16, Profit 5 pts)

Two opposites taking each other on here as far as I can see. Andrade excels on easy courses, Haas on hard (and all indications so far from the players say it's going to be a tough week) ... Andrade is playing badly while Haas is in his usual good form ... Andrade has no recent form here (hasn't played for 4 years), Haas has T13 and T21 the last two years ... I can find nothing whatsoever to suggest Andrade will outscore Haas today on the difficult South Course. (NB. Cantor have this match listed under their North Course matches)

Bet 2 (after 1st round) - Buy Kevin Stadler FP at 33 with Sporting Index for 1 pt. (MU 50, Profit 17 pts)

Make no mistake, this boy has 3 days left on what will prove to be one of the toughest courses in the 2004 schedule. If he finishes top 25 I'll be absolutely amazed and there has to be a bigger chance that he'll finish tailed off. I'd buy at anything up to about 36 I think.

Bet 3 - Sell Stewart Cink/Dennis Paulson round 2 18H MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts. (MU 28, Profit -12.5 pts)

Cink is generally the better player, hence the prices, but there are reasons for thinking this tournament is one that suits Paulson better. Paulson has finished top 21 in three of the last 4 years here and proved his liking of the place again yesterday with a fine 3 under 69 on the tough course, one in front of Cink (the price of this match in round 1 was only 1-4 incidentally). I feel I have evidence that over the last two years Cink's performances are way below his average standard when faced with a difficult driving course - and the driving accuracy stats for yesterday were very low indeed, lower than any tournament last year in fact. He did quite well yesterday but that was mainly due to him putting well and it's no certainty that he'll perform similarly on the very different greens of the North Course. Paulson shot 69-68 in the first two rounds last week at the AT&T, and started 68-67, 69-66 & 73-67 in his three good finishes here that I mentioned earlier and I feel there is a super little bit of value in this match with Paulson's long game in such good shape on the South Course yesterday.

Summary

Profit on week 9.5 pts.

Very upset with the Cink/Paulson matchup in round 2. Paulson did soundly by shooting 3 under but to catch Cink on fire like that was so annoying. It was a very freakish round and if Stadler hadn't dropped to the rear like was predicted I'd have felt very hard done by!