**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. Started the account with £1000 and my rate will be £20 per Point. The stakes will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me) unless I am laying short odds. With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you wish to take these plays as recommendations, please do so but be aware that I can only manage the bets that I have actually struck and cannot give updates for bets you may have had (or not had) different to what is put here.** 

Byron Nelson Championship @ Betfair

FINAL RESULT:

Profit =  10.23 pts (after commission)

Bank is now £1343.35 after 6 weeks (started at £1000).

Summary:
Well, plenty of different emotions experienced there! Hart played brilliantly to take advantage of some not-unexpected wobbles by Garcia and join him in the playoff alongside Damron. Unfortunately he then completely flopped and suddenly we were Damron fans ... but then that lasted no time at all! At the end of the day, I've taken on the eventual winner but still made a double-figure point profit so it can't be all that bad - especially as Hart should never have been matched as low as our 2.30, let alone Evens!! His correct price was never under 2/1 but if people want to take these prices then it's reward for those of us who put them up for the world to see in the first place.
Screenshot of the account's tournament business can be seen by clicking the image below.




<------- Account screenshot as Garcia is walking up the 18th (don't know why Hart was matched down to Evens but he was!):

Page Update #5 (after round three):
(Winner market)
Lay Sergio Garcia 2 pts @ 2.62
Lay Jerry Kelly 1.5 pts @ 9.2 --- BOTH MATCHED
Lay Luke Donald 15 pts @ 2.3 & 15 pts @ 1.5
Lay Dudley Hart 10 pts @ 4, 15 pts @ 2.3 & 15 pts @ 1.5
Well, just seen the updated scores after a day away from the PC (!) and am disappointed with Tiger. Dismayed to see Sergio two clear as well but undoubtedly all is not lost. Would've loved to have been taking him on at his current 2.64 though and am now pushing the potential loss a bit in taking another couple of points out of him. Still, I'm far from convinced that he'll stand up to the pressure and the potential for a winner from a few back is definitely there and in that we have two of the original choices in Donald and Hart. Will put up some lays in case they manage to get involved in the very final push for the title. Not at all sure Kelly can take the pressure so will take a little out of him too.
Click the image below to see the state of the book going into the final round.


Page Update #4 (after round two):
(Winner market)
Lay Vijay Singh 1.5 pts @ 8.2
Lay Sergio Garcia 1 pt @ 13
Lay Peter Lonard 0.75 pt @ 26
Still keeping Tiger onside and very nearly went in with a back on him. I do think he'll take this with his short game currently at it's fantastic best, but odds of 2.3 with two rounds to go just don't quite grab enough with memories of last week's third-round debacle still fresh in the memory. I can't see another collapse coming this week but it's just too short for me. Decided instead to lay some around him, and Singh at 3 behind but still single figures is the prime candidate. His driving seems to have deserted him (currently worse than Tiger's!) and I can't help feeling it's the need for a break that is causing his long game to suffer these last two weeks. I also wouldn't be surprised if he couldn't keep his current level of performance with his putter going. Putting is what I think will let Garcia down, even if everything else happens to stay strong with him, and I just couldn't have Lonard as the winner this week (if any week!). Still clinging to the hope that Hart or even Weir might still get involved. Any updates after tonight's round will not be until after 1pm tomorrow.

No bets after round one
Tiger had the worst of the draw (was in latter half on toughest course) but still scored well enough to lie tied 3rd and I couldn't possibly take him on at this stage, he continued his excellent putting form and was 2nd in putting in the whole field. However, I still don't see him as reliable enough to want to support him at under 2/1. His presence means that almost of all the other players at the top are still trading at very high odds and are not attractive laying propositions. The best opportunity to back could be Jerry Kelly at 34 on Betfair as he too played the difficult course, but I shall just pass it up and hope for another great round from our 350 shot Dudley Hart who lies tied 3rd alongside Tiger.

Page Update #3:
(Winner market)
Back Dudley Hart 0.25 pts @ 350
Stanley tells me that Jacobson has withdrawn so I shall give in to the nagging voice telling me to have a little on Hart. 4th a fortnight ago and less than 100/1 last week, he is 4 times bigger now due to a missed cut. He doesn't have the level of course form here that he had last week, but it is still not too shabby and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he could contend here. I cannot find an angle for laying enough mid-priced players at their current prices, and don't fancy taking the top four on at this stage so I shall wait for in-running to look at laying a couple.

Page Update #2:
(Winner market)
Move Jacobson bet from 90 to 80
Back Bob Estes 0.25 pts @ 200 --- ALL BETS NOW MATCHED
Bit gutted that I have to go down to 80 when Ladbrokes are 80/1 but then Blue Square have cut to 66/1 and Ladbrokes chopped theirs the 80 might disappear too. Chancing a little on Estes as there has been signs (in all areas) that he's finding his game and he does have some form here. I'll use that well-worn chestnut that he is a born and bred Texan and he could easily continue his 2004 progress here, enough to show up prominently even, I think. You wouldn't get half this price if he had some high-profile recent play to his name and I'm pretty hopeful.

Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Back Mike Weir 1.75 pts @ 42
Back Fredrik Jacobson 0.75 pts @ 90
Back Luke Donald 0.5 pts @ 120
Mike Weir said he was mentally refreshed with a rusty game last week, and in the circumstances his performance wasn't so bad, playing the final 17 holes in 4 under par. He says he's still working very hard and I sense that a return to his February form of T5-T4-Win isn't far away. Since reaching the upper echelons of the tour, he always seems to take a month off after Augusta and his last appearance here, a MC in 2002, was his comeback but in 2001 he had a runout before coming here and ended up 11th after starting the final round in 5th. Now a far classier player than he was then, he's already had his runout (putted really well and was T2nd for birdies in the Wachovia) and I fancy he can topple the big guns at a rare 40/1+. Jacobson looked ready for a real challenge last week before withdrawing with baby issues and it's obviously entirely possible he'll not turn out this week. However, if he does I'd presume all at home to be settled and I don't think he deserves to be a higher price here than he currently is for any of the three remaining Majors; possibly the bookies have factored last week's 'distracting' events into the price, but ignored his performance. Donald is progressing excellently nowadays and is a far better player now than when entering the final round in 3rd place here last year. Six top 25s already this year is a fine record and that includes a T15th last week when joint second for both Driving Accuracy and GIR. The quality of field shouldn't put anyone off as he has already reached a playoff this year in a similarly high-class event, the Buick Invitational.