Spread Picks

Round One Trades (P/L = 14.62 pts)

Sell Aaron Baddeley over David Peoples 18H MB at 1 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit = -12 pts.)

Another bet opposing Badds (i look forward to the day he gets paired with Nick Dougherty) who is made favourite here for reasons unknown. After the success of his 2nd when the big boys were away playing in the Matchplay, he's posted the following: 21/56/mc/65/mc. Peoples, in the same period has came in with: 52/42/11/mc/11/wd/56. Not a great deal better but better than Baddeley has produced. Course form is also favouring Peoples, with an 8th place in 02'.

Sell Jeff Maggert over Dudley Hart 18H MB at 1 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit =15 pts.)

I feel this one has a false favourite as both have good current form, Hart 4th in Houston, Maggert 5th at the Wachovia. Longer term current form shows Hart struggle this year although he has been coming back from injury. Maggert though hasn't done a great deal either. On course form Maggert has 3 MC's in his last 5 visits, Hart though has only missed one cut and has an 11th in 01. Very similar players here suggests 1 is a little value.

Buy Vijay Singh over Chad Campbell 18H MB at 7 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 25, Profit = 13.5 pts.)

Singh is the defending champion and has two wins in his last 3 events. He comes up against the other 3 players in the world's top 4 so will want to compete to show who is best. Campbell has a poor 2004 to show after coming off of last year the "new big hope" after winning the Tour Champs. He has won at Bay Hill but has generally disappointed with only one other top 10. His course stats are 40th and 39th compared to Singh's 41/11/mc and win.

Buy Justin Leonard over Jonathan Byrd 18H MB at 3.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -16, Profit = -14.63 pts.)

With the advantage of the spread free offer this price becomes a fair bet. Leonard is finishing remarkably consistant around 30th place most weeks so is steady without threatening to contend or implode. He did miss the cut last week but not with a high figure and back in his home state where he has an event record of 4 Top 20's in 5 attempts he is backed as a low price buy to beat Byrd. Byrd has course form of two missed cuts and current form of 6 missed cuts in 8 so the more steady Leonard is backed at a value price with the spread taken out.

Buy David Toms over John Daly 18H MB at 3 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit = -16.5 pts.)

A double play against Daly with two players in the top end of the World rankings against what is very much a streaky player. Daly has posted 76s, a 78 and an 80 in his last few events and is open to these type of high scores and is an excellent opponent in a one off match. Toms is feeling his way back in after an injury lay off but few can match his course form figures of 20/11/4/6

Buy Kenny Perry over John Daly 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit = 6.75 pts.)

Daly is covered above, Perry has a 50% Top 20 record this year and is performing well. We are getting into the period this year where Perry stepped up a gear last year and if he does prove to be a seasonal player he may be in for a good month. 8 Top 10's in a row started after a MC here, but his course record does include an 8th in 01'.

Sell Joe Ogilvie over Tim Clark 18H MB at 2 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (M/U -28, Profit = 22.5 pts.)

Ogilvie is on a roll, with a 19th and 2nd in the last three weeks. There was signs though that the run was coming to an end last week, where, after a good start he shot 76 in R3. He came back well in R4 but may need a rest after being in contention which can be more mentally tiring. His record previous to this run was very poor. Clark has done really nothing at all this year but his performances in the past are better than Ogilvie pre-May so getting a 2pt start is worth taking the risks that Ogilvie is back to his normal level and that Clark may re-discover rounds of old.

Round Two Trades (P/L = -7.63 Pts)

Sell Aaron Baddeley over David Peoples 18H MB at 1 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts. (M/U 16, Profit -11.25 pts)

Buy Justin Leonard over Jonathan Byrd 18H MB at 4 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit -17.25 pts)

Buy Kenny Perry over John Daly 18H MB at 5 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit 6 pts)

Sell Jeff Maggert over Dudley Hart 18H MB at 1 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U -19, Profit 15 pts)

Buy David Toms over John Daly 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit -15.38 pts)

Playing up 5 from yesterday at prices that are still fair.


Sell Notah Begay over Billy Mayfair 18H at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit 15.25 pts)

Mayfair is currently on a poor run and a 74 yesterday hasn't showed any sign of change. I still feel though that 2 is too high a start for Begay who has shown flashes of form recently but generally has played poorly this season. 4 missed cuts before the 5th at Wachovia suggests he isn't a player to buy at too high a price no matter who he faces. Mayfair, for all his lack of big finishes has still made his last 8 cuts.

Round Three Trades (P/L 49.12 Pts)

Buy Justin Leonard over John Daly 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 19, Profit 12 pts)

We have been with Leonard and against Daly all week at at a low 3, there seems no reason not to go in again even although we are down on the week on playing them the way we have done.

Buy Robert Allenby over Greg Chalmers 18H MB at 8 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U 25, Profit 12.75 pts)

Allenby hasn't had a great season but is a far more accomplished player than Chalmers and should possibly be priced in double figures for this match. Chalmers this year has been very poor, a 25th in the Aus. Open being his best return. 41st is his best finish on this tour compared to Allenby's 4th at the Honda Classic.

Buy Ernie Els over Hank Kuehne 18H MB at 11 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U -13, Profit -18 pts)

Els is a high buy here but three Top 3 places in 8 PGA events this year cant be ignored. Kuehne has a 5th at the Nissan, but also has 7 missed cuts in 11 events. There is a gulf in class between these two that suggests 11 is dangerously high, but still not high enough.

Buy Scott Verplank over Todd Fischer 18H MB at 9 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 19, Profit 7.5 pts)

Mr consistency, Verplank, has made another cut, his last missed was the PGA last August. However, the Top 10 places of early season have dried up with no Top 20's now in for events. He is though a steady player even in that spell with only 5 of the 16 rounds over 72. Fischer in that spell has been missing cuts. In fact this is only the 2nd cut he has made in 9 events. Verplank is worthy of a trade in single figures which this price just is.

Buy Nick Price over Zach Johnson 18H MB at 1.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -13, Profit -10.88 pts)

Price to me was always a great FP sell as he was so reliable. I felt last year that this advantage had gone, but this year it has returned with an average under 30. He has improved recently with a 6th at the Masters and two Top 25's since. With the Spread free offer he is a cheap buy at 1.5 over Zach who after his win at the Bellsouth has a 53rd an 11th and a MC. Price is in better current form.

Buy Luke Donald over Aaron Baddeley 18H MB at 3 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts. (M/U 55, Profit 39 pts)

Opposing Baddeley again who has actually cost us this week, but then it was more Peoples poor rounds than anything startling from "Badds". Donald is a Brit playing F/T on the PGA and he has posted some good scores. 4 Top 20's including 15th at Wachovia shows him in good form and is certainly better than Baddeley's this year.

Buy Vijay Singh over Shaun Micheel 18H MB at 10 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit 6.75 pts)

We have probably backed Singh more than anyone over the last couple of weeks and today i believe that 10 is too low against Micheel. Micheel this season has been ok without making anyone take a real notice. 9th at Sawgrass the best of some regular results where he has only MC in the Buick. Unfortunately bracketed with Curtis when talking of major winners who weren't expected to be so. Micheel though is a far better player than Curtis but he is nowhere near the quality of Singh. Singh should be 10-13 here if i was pricing so 10 is fair.

Round Four Trades (P/L = -7.5 Pts)

Sell Zach Johnson over Peter Lonard 18H MB at 3 with SportsSpread for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit -7.5 pts)

Purely on price this one, i dont think these two players should be anything other than "choice" so to get a 3pt start is value. 

Summary:  48.61 pt Profit

Big result in the Baddeley match on Saturday made a huge difference to the week. Apart from that though it was a good week with nearly 10pts profit over the other matches.

PGA Tour

Tournament Trade:

Sell Kenny Perry FP at 33 with Cantor Sports for 0.5 pts
I think the quote is so high due to Perry's missed cut last time out in the Masters and his subsequent 4-week break. However, he won the GMO last July after a month's break, and as he has never prospered at Augusta, I can easily ignore those 'worries'. Since his incredible three wins in four outings last summer, Perry has been a model of consistency. Even with his three MCs this year his average FP makeup is around 28, and if you take that back to the British Open last year (the first tournament after his third win) that figure becomes around 25. Note, that is from after his 1st-1st-T3rd-1st streak, not including it. That period encompasses 17 events and he secured 10 top 20s from them; another angle to support his record comes by looking at his how he has made the top ten on 35% of his starts over the last 36 months.  Quite simply, how can the firms suggest his average finish this week would be around 34th? He doesn't have the best tournament record ever, but a 5th in 1995 and 8th in 2001 shows he can play these courses perfectly well and I'd gladly be selling even at the 32-35 quote of Sporting Index or Spreadex.
Result:
Perry tied 59th, MU 50, Loss 8.5 pts