Spread Picks

Note: Staking
 
 It has been apparent over the last few weeks that the staking between the different betting codes on the site were not compatible and that the volatility of the 18H bets was far greater than the exchange or Fixed odds equivalent. Therefore, from this week all 18H MB spreads will be changed to 0.25pt per bet rather than 0.75pt as they were previously. It is not a downsizing in confidence in the bets but rather an attempt to streamline the financial risk on the various bets on offer on the site. For anyone who follows the Spread Bets i would suggest they continue to stake as they did but just adjust their own staking plan round the new site staking plan. There is no plan to change any 72H stakes as the volatility on those bets are much lower and Finishing Position bets will also remain static at 0.5pts.This should even out the volatility over all the spread bets on offer.

Summary : -2.19 Pts

Not as poor a week as on the Euro's but another case of what might have been. We back Chad Campbell a day before a 61, being an example, but luck evens itself out.

Tournament Trades

Sell Phil Mickelson over Davis Love 72H MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. MU 0, Profit 1.5 pts

72H matches are usually between players of similar ability and the price is therefore hovering around either 0.75 your choice, 0-1.5 or 0.5-2.0. So why are Sporting pricing two very similar players with such a large start to Mickelson. Their course record is similar, Mickelson 1/2/23/13 last 4 years, Love 11/2/5, their current form favours Mickelson but he is coming off of a missed cut at the Nelson, and their world rankings are similar. There just seems no way that this bet is not value to sell at 2.

Round Four Trades (+2.25 pts)

Buy Davis Love over Todd Hamilton at 7 with Cantor Sports for 0.25 pts. MU 16, Profit 2.25 pts

Final bet in what has been a poor week. No stand out sells and enough of the buys lost to make it a losing week. Love though is pitched in rather low by cantor at 7, others go 9. Hamilton won earlier in the year but has done little since, 21st at Wachovia his only top 30 finish. 

Round Two Trades (+7.00 Pts)

Buy Chris Di'Marco over Craig Perks at 9 with Cantor Sports for 0.25 pts. MU 0, Profit -2.25 Pts

Perks has been a favourite of mine to oppose in the last few weeks as his record, especially outside Florida is shocking. I was very surprised therefore to see him shoot the score he did yesterday although i knew then that any single figure price on his opponents would become value. Di'Marco this year has 5 Top 20 places which is good if not spectacular form. Perks best finish this year is 27th in Florida and 54th outside Florida (last weeks' Nelson)

Buy Chad Campbell over Craig Perks at 9 with Cantor Sports for 0.25 pts. MU 0, Profit -2.25 Pts

6 behind Perks yesterday, (Di'Marco 5) both players are fancied at less than double figures to come good today and beat Perks. I would be very surprised if Perks came anywhere near Thursday's score today. Campbell has struggled a bit this year with a win in the Bay Hill a surprise result compared to so many finishes down the field. He is though, a far superior player than Perks and would be priced much higher than 9 had Perks not scored the way he did yesterday.


Buy Davis Love over Jonathan Byrd at 6 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts MU 31, Profit 6.25 Pts

Buy Peter Lonard over Aaron Baddeley at 3 with Spreadex for 0.25pts MU 0, Profit -0.75 Pts

Buy Scott Verplank over Ted Purdy at 5 with IG Sport for 0.25 pts MU 31, Profit 6.5 Pts


Playing up three losers from yesterday that are still value.


Round One Trades (-12.94 pts)

Buy Loren Roberts over Heath Slocum at 1.5 ch with Sporting Index for 0.25 pts MU 16, Profit 3.56 pts

I would have Roberts clear favourite here, even although his recent form has been patchy with three "down the field" performances in March/April followed by a missed cut last week. His course form is ok, though not startling, although he did finish 13th last year. Slocum however has missed the cut in both his starts here and has only marginally better current form with a 10th at Wachovia two weeks ago his best recent effort. Roberts should be 2-5 rather than equally priced so it is worthy of a trade.

Buy Davis Love over Jonathan Byrd at 7 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. MU -16, Profit -5.75 pts

As we stated above, Love has 3 high finishes here over the last few years, whereas Byrd has an 8th and a missed cut as his efforts so far. Love is in ok form currently with a Top 10 at Augusta, his 3rd of the year (Byrd has none). Byrd started well last week (costing us in the first two rounds) but fell away to finish 27th. He really hasn't done a great deal this year so 7 for Love is a fair price considering the difference in their rankings and stroke averages.

Buy Scott Verplank over Ted Purdy at 5 with Cantor Sports for 0.25 pts. MU -16, Profit -5.25 pts

Purdy has improved dramatically these last few weeks but even then the gap in quality of these two players means that 5 is low to buy Verplank over him. 14th last week was a return to form after a small blip in the normally excellent results of Verplank where he finished outside the Top 20 for 4 weeks in a row. Previous to this he had a run of 7 consecutive top 10 placings. Purdy nearly won at the MCI finishing 2nd to Stewart Cink and since has posted an 11th, 25th, 27th and a MC. Fair form but not in the class of Verplank who is one of the most dependable players on tour when backing in FP sells although his win rate is very poor. We, though, are only backing him to beat Purdy over one round and 5 is a fair handicap to give up.

Buy Peter Lonard over Aaron Baddeley at 3 with Spreadex for 0.25 pts. MU -19, Profit -5.5 pts

I'm running out of reasons to give for opposing Baddeley, but whilst the spread boys price him up as something he isn't we will continue to trade. After a maximum M/U on him last week where Donald beat him by 15 strokes (64-79) he then went out in the next round and shot 77. This week, he plays with Lonard who has superior 2004 form over his fellow Aussie. 48th last week beat Badds' 80th and a 5th at Bellsouth compares better than Baddeley's 2nd at Tucson
in a far weaker field.
 

PGA Tour

Tournament Trades:

Buy Phil Mickelson FP at 19 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts
He missed lots of fairways last week, and that in itself could be a worry on this type of course, but what I've really noted about Mickelson is the deterioration in his putting the last couple of outings, and all in all I'm happy to take him on here. There is no doubting he has so far had a season beyond his wildest dreams, and I am very pleased being a big fan, but his comments last week about being tired (you don't hear Vijay saying that!) just worried me, alongside his slipping performances, and the similar type of course to where he MC last week could just find him out again I think.
Result:
Mickelson tied 35th with 5 others, MU 37.5,
Profit = 9.25 pts

Sell Jonathan Kaye FP at 34 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts
I feel this guy is a class act and want to continue to support him here despite already betting him oturight. I'll reiterate here that I'm sure the bookmakers underrate him and I really fancy him to at least match his last two results of tied 11th and tied 15th. I'm pretty sure I'll be supporting him in some forthcoming Majors so as he looks to be coming back to form I have to be with him in this kind of event and back him at over 80/1 and sell his FP at mid-thirties.
Result:
Kaye MC, MU 50, Loss = 8 pts