I have now closed down the BF account for plays on this page. Funds were getting low due to the very poor run and this would constrain my actions for this week. Also, the different approaches for the two tours wasn't satisfactory. Despite the poor run, the Betfair page for the US Tour this season is still 4.22 points in profit and from this week on all these plays will return to being based on points only as per the rest of the site. The overall record of Betfair plays is unaffected and the archived pages are still available for viewing. Will use this opportunity to try and introduce yet another way of using the exchanges for golf betting.


Deutsche Bank Championship @ Betfair

The strategy now is to back players pre-tournament, and then to put lays up on Betfair as soon as possible once the event starts. This is to hopefully recoup some points on supported players who are doing well for at least some part of the tournament. It is about the closest one can get to each-way betting using the outright market on Betfair alone, although there would be endless staking plans for this system.
Please note, any bets placed on the market before the event starts are cancelled when they introduce the in-running market. Therefore, these lays have to be put up as soon as possible after the market is placed in-running. The lays will be at set prices, based on the original back price, and are left up for the duration of the tournament.


Summary:
6pts staked, 2 pts laid, loss 4 pts.
He tried hard but just as it looked like getting interesting on Monday, Maruyama bombed. Another blank week but at least there was some prolonged interest. Is that finally some light at the end of this long tunnel? ...........



Selection 1 Back:
Tim Herron 3 pts @ 50 (or 50/1 with several bookies)
Herron is experienced enough to bounce back from last week's play-off loss, and I am expecting another good run for him after his return from illness, which apparently was awful. He is a very streaky player who tends to perform well in 'bunches' of tournaments these days; last year he had 6 top-5s: 3 were in the space of 5 events at the start of the season, and 3 were in 5 events at the end. Also, in 2002 he only had 6 top-20s, and 3 of those were in consecutive events in mid-summer, with two others coming together to finish the season. This year in June, just before his illness, he'd had 3 top-4s (and 5 top-20s) in 6 events, and therefore hopes must be high that he can follow up last week's welcome return to form after two missed cuts in Majors, especially as he was tied-5th in last year's event here.
Selection 1 Lays:
3 pts @ 13.5 (to lose 37.5 pts)
6 pts @ 6.0 (30 pts)
6 pts @ 3.5 (15 pts) Profit if successful = 64.5 pts

Selection 2 Back:
Hidemichi Tanaka 1 pt @ 180
A nice price for someone looking like running into form (T24 and T13 last two weeks), and who has shown excellent late-season form in his two previous seasons on tour. Last season he had a fabulous run of T6-MC-T4-T5-MC-T4, which started in the last week of August, and in 2002, his first full season, that same week saw the start of a seasons-best run of T17-MC-T28-T7-T35-T14-T63-T4, decent figures for a foreigner just starting to find his feet on tour. He has now for a while been thought of as one of the tour 'maidens' who could be next to break their duck, and although the good autumnal form of the past two season proves nothing, I'll take a chance that he could just be about to repeat or surpass it.
Selection 2 Lays:
1 pt @ 30 (to lose 29 pts)
2 pts @ 19 (36 pts)
4 pts @ 7 (24 pts)
8 pts @ 3.4 (19.2 pts) Profit if successful = 70.8 pts

Selection 3 Back:
Shigeki Maruyama 2 pts @ 65
Just think he's been unfairly shunted out in the betting when his form really isn't that bad. He has failed to finish tied-30th or better in only one of his last six events, and when he was only a top-priced 100/1 (average of all bookies about 80/1) for both the recent USPGA and WGC-NEC top class events, I don't really think he should still be over 60/1 in this field where so many big names are missing. Other players who were around 125/1 for those events are trading at under 50/1 here. Maybe, a little like Tanaka, he will show late-season form to rival last year's; back then he recovered from a desperate year to start, in September, a run of 4 events that included a win and two other top-10s.
Selection 3 Lays:
2 pts @ 17 (to lose 32 pts) **MATCHED**
4 pts @ 7.4 (25.6 pts)
6 pts @ 4.2 (19.2 pts) Profit if successful = 51.2 pts