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Tipster:
Andy
Ford Championship at Doral
Pre Event trades:
Sell Phil Mickelson on
Spreadex Super 10 Index at 19 for
0.5 pts. (M/U 0, Profit
= 9.5pts)
Mickelson has been superb this year but he notoriously
does better on the West coast than he does in Florida. Only one career
win here (of 22) and a record in this event that doesn't strike a great
deal of fear.
Sell the "Blue Monster" 18th Hole Disaster index at 160 for 0.5 pts with
Sporting Index. (M/U 347, Profit -88.5pts)
Spin originally went 110-125 and the RP is bullish about a buy, however
I'm not so sure. Technology in clubs has come on a long way with players
getting out of trouble a lot easier these days and it is fairly
important to note that last year the MU was only 92, something the
Racing Post doesn't admit to in their "selective" arguments for a buy.
For me, 110-125 is about right BUT, with the undoubted rush of money
that the RP buying public have brought to this market it has now moved
to the point where its a sell, purely on the weight of money factor
rather than Sporting calling it wrong. MU in 2002 was 199 and in 2001
was 148. It is now 160-175 and is worth opposing for minimum stakes.
Round Four Trade:
Sell P Azinger over W Austin 18H MB at 4 with
Spreadex for 0.75 pts.
(M/U -28, Profit = 24pts)
Strange price this, I would have them close to being equal so
putting one player in at 4-7 equates to quite a heavy favourite. No
other reason for suggesting this bet other than the price is so wrong.
Summary.
Firstly, two good results in the normal markets gaining
33.5pts. Ok, now the bad news. What a nightmare scenario on Thursday
with the "Blue Monster" bet. Sporting Index went up at 110-125 and as i
stated above a positive spin on the buy price by the Racing Post
newspaper meant that by just before tee time Sporting were quoting
160-175. To me this was a sell given the make-ups of previous years.
Unfortunately as we all know the Racing Post called it right (and fair
play to them) and Sporting were completely wrong with me right behind
them. I am sure though that even the RP tipster couldn't believe how big
a difference from the original price to the end result. Over the weekend
there were only a handful of double bogeys and in hindsight a sell of
the updated price on Friday or Saturday would have got us out of the
week with no loss. However, it just didn't seem worth the risk. At least
other results over two tours made up half of the loss but my bank
balance is somewhat lighter for this weeks experience.
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Tipster:
Shaker
Ford Championship at Doral
Sell Phil
Mickelson/Steve Elkington round 1 18H MB 0.5 pts at 6 with all firms
except Cantor (M/U 28, Loss = 11pts)
Mickelson's record on Bermuda greens is absolutely miles behind what
he's done on non-Bermuda and there's no guarantee that his excellent
form so far will be continued here, the start of a very different stage
to the season. Opposing at a good speculative price with a player in
very decent form (stats improving all the time this season) and who has
had much success here in the past. Elkington has opened 69-67-68 here
the last three years despite the game having been a struggle at the
time.
Round Two Trades:
Buy Stephen
Ames/Per-Ulrik Johansson round 2 18H MB 0.5 pts at 6 with
IG Sport (M/U
31, Profit = 12.5pts)
Ames is a model of consistency, Johansson
is not. Ames is a very accurate player, Johansson struggles to make the
cut most weeks. Ames outscored PUJ yesterday and was much more accurate.
Buy Joe Durant/Ben
Curtis round 2 18H MB 0.5 pts at 8 with
Spreadex (M/U
-13, Loss = 10.5pts)
Durant was very accurate yesterday, is in
good form this season, and is a past winner here. Curtis shot +3
yesterday, has done nothing since winning the Open, and had never played
here before.
Pre-Round Two Trade:
Buy Chris Riley NO MAX
FP 0.5 pts at 54 with
Sporting Index (M/U
107, Profit = 26.5pts)
Most of Riley's missed cuts are on tough
courses and, with his driving yesterday being so short AND wayward, that
is what I fancy for him this week. He has next to no form at this course
and is playing in the afternoon today, which was almost 2/3rds of a shot
more difficult than the morning yesterday. He is currently T58th with 22
other players.
Round Three Trades:
Buy Stephen Ames/Angel
Cabrera round 3 18H MB 0.5 pts at 1.5 with
SportsSpread
(M/U -13, Loss = 7.25pts)
Ames is playing so consistently well both
this week and all season that he derserves support over the more erratic
Cabrera. Ames is far enough from the lead that he should give his
running today and with Cabrera having his first outing of the season and
struggling to find virtually any fairways, I make Ames a definite
favourite.
Sell Alex Cejka/Craig
Perks round 3 18H MB 0.5 pts at 4 with
Sporting Index &
Spreadex (M/U
22, Loss = 9pts)
Cejka's good putting is why he is
challenging this week but this area of the game really is one that
usually lets him down. I'm far from certain that he can keep that level
of performance on the greens going and with Perks being extremely happy
to be back on Bermuda grass I think this price is way over the top. His
long game looks in good nick and I'm confident if he can keep that
going, his putting will start to outshine Cejka's.
Round Four Trade:
Buy Mark
Calcavecchia/John Riegger round 4 18H MB 0.5 pts at 5 with
Sporting Index
Calc has found his form at last and is
following a good run last week with another here. A peak form Calc is in
a completely different league to Riegger who is nothing more than a
journeyman. He has scored poorly in round four many of the times he's
had a chance of a really high finish, and he will surely not repeat the
bogey-free golf of yesterday. Calc usually keeps his form when he gets
into the groove, is putting superbly this week, and is still capable of
streaky scoring. Hopeful of a big one here!
Summary (Weekly
Record 3-4, Profit 8.25 pts)
Calc was a nice stress-free finish
to leave a half-decent profit after some ups and downs. Gutted about how
we opposed Mickelson on by far his best putting round and how we chose
Durant during his worst round by some way against Curtis somehow
shooting under par, but Riley was an enjoyable highlight.
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