Spread Picks

Tournament Trades

Sell Phil Mickelson over Chris DiMarco 72H MB using Sporting Index "matchmakers" service at 4.85 for 0.75 pts (M/U 23, Profit -13.6 pts)

I have no particular favourite here over the two and although by virtue of his winning record this year Mickelson should be favourite, it is debatable if it should be this much. With a maximum of 25, the downside is just over 20 but the upside nearer 30. DiMarco is getting basically 1.25 stroke per round and on known form that is over-emphasising Phil's chances here. 6th at Mickelson's Masters, CDM has also posted big performances in Scottsdale and Miami. He is fairly steady and could easily win this at the price even if Mickelson finishes Top 10.

Round One Trades

Buy Chris Di'Marco over Craig Perks 18H MB at 11 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 16, Profit 3.75 pts)

Di Marco is backed in an outright against the 2nd fav, but we are also backing him here against Perks, the man who loves Florida so much he likes to play there on the weekend too.  The Texas Open last September was the last time Perks made the weekend outside Florida, and this is the 9th attempt since. Even allowing for his Florida preferences he isn't even showing up well there now with results of mc/mc/27/41/mc/mc. Perks is definitely not in the class of his opponent although these bets always carry a 18H MB warning. With the known results though, Di'Marco should be favourite by a few points more.

Buy Vijay Singh over Steve Stricker 18H MB at 11 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit 1.5 pts.)

Singh is coming off a win on Monday in Houston. Where that would normally be a hindrence to any other player as they tend to psychologically switch down a gear or two, it isn't  with Singh. It is only another step on the way towards the World No. 1 slot which is his over-riding ambition. He will step out today in the belief that his game is in good nick and that he should be in there on Sunday challenging for that next step. He comes up against Stricker who after a run of 6 missed cuts has finished 30th and 19th the last two events. That still is way behind Singh's current record and i am surprised Singh is as low as 11.

Round Two Trades

Buy Chris Di'Marco over Craig Perks 18H MB at 11 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 19, Profit 6 pts)

Buy Vijay Singh over Steve Stricker 18H MB at 11 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U 22, Profit 8.25 pts)

Singh won by one yesterday so the firms see no reason to change the price and I see no reason not to play up on the bet again. Di'Marco hasn't finished yet due to a rain delay yesterday but is 4 ahead of Perks with 4 to play which makes it a little strange that his price hasn't increased. So once again, no reason not to accept the offer at the same price again today.

Buy Vijay Singh over Joe Durant 18H MB at 9 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts. (M/U 25, Profit 12 pts)

Durant had a great day yesterday and has therefore now came within an acceptable price to oppose him with the World No. 2. Durant is on a par with Stricker so it seems fair to back him at the same price. This season, Durant has posted a 4th and a 24th as the only positive results from an otherwise poor season. When he was 4th in Doral it was noticeable he shot 66 R1 and then followed up with a 72 on the Friday.

Summary: 17.9 pts . 5/5 wins on the 18s and a shocking R4 by Di Marco ate away a quarter of the profits. Still, a winning week over the two tours of 40+ points which i will happily accept.

PGA Tour

Tournament Trade:

Buy Chris Riley FP at 35 with Sporting Index for 0.5 pts
(also available at this price with IG and Sportspread)

Riley has no form to speak of here at English Turn and I suppose it is the small greens that give him the trouble. His iron play is not the strength in his game, in fact it is arguably his biggest weakness, and that probably leads to him putting for pars instead of birdies a lot more than usual. His excellent scrambling and putting should in theory get him out of trouble, but a scour back through his stats for the four times he's appeared here reveal that he's never putted anywhere near as well as can, or indeed usually does. The last two years he has come here on the back of a much better finish than he does this year and still he failed to trouble the top 30. His two most recent outings have been at the Masters then the Houston last week, and both times he had the perfect start with an excellent round in the afternoon only to fail miserably; he finished last of those that made the weekend at Augusta and tied 37th in Houston despite teeing off early Friday in clear 2nd place. Before that he had missed two cuts in three outings and it really looks all against him this week. Another afternoon start awaits today and he'll do extremely well to score well in round one again here.
Result:
Riley tied 45th with 4 others,
MU 47, Profit 6 pts