**I am running a Betfair account which is used exclusively for plays mentioned here. Every single play I put up here will go immediately on my Betfair account. Started the account with £1000 and my rate will be £20 per Point. The stakes will vary from the minimum of 0.25 pts to the maximum of 10 pts (so £5 to £200 for me) unless I am laying long odds on. With the account being used solely for Tour-Tips, it will therefore tell us exactly what the profit/loss record of this page is, including commission costs. If you want to think of these as recommendations to bet or lay these players then please do so, but be aware that sometimes the price will shift and you'll have to decide whether the new odds are value or not. If the new odds are only one or two increments different to what are on here then I'm sure I'd usually suggest to still play** 


MCI Heritage @ Betfair

FINAL RESULT:

Profit = 3.33 pts (after commission).

Bank has now gone from £1000 to £1342.57 in two weeks.

Summary:
Nine lays before halfway and all successful, but that's where it started to go wrong. A lesson learned that in this day and age anybody on tour can win and you simply do not lay players at odds of 42 when they are as close to the lead as Purdy was with two rounds to go. However much I didn't fancy him I should've resisted. A much better call on Sunday to oppose him again, fully expecting a struggle after the amazing putting round on Saturday, but I hadn't enough scope to lay him for any more than 3 measly points. The back at 5 put up for the final round on Purdy was matched on the 71st green and made the playoff much more bearable as the maximum loss was reduced from around 21 pts to 8 pts. In the end it's on one hand a little disappointing that the win was modest because we never laid Cink at all, and also because I said this just last week: "...with Cink looking great value at anything over 150/1; he may wilt when he hits the front but he's definitely capable of firing in a very low round when coming from behind". But I never thought he could come from quite this far back (9 shots behind Purdy entering the final round) and the upshot is that a profit on the book for me would not normally be the result when that man wins! Obviously got out of jail a bit and I'm ultimately satisfied with the conclusion. See image below for summary of the week's bets.





Page Update #5 (after 3rd round):
(Winner market)
Alter Ted Purdy lay from 2.16 to 2.22
Back Darren Clarke 0.25 pts @ 48 --- BOTH MATCHED
Lay Jonathan Kaye 5 pts @ 2 AND 10 pts @ 1.5 AND 10 pts @ 1.2
The market has quickly moved in opposition of Purdy and the 2.16 is not looking like being matched at the moment. Clarke is the only other player I've laid who I'd not be surprised to see a Sunday charge from, Ames and Haas don't worry me really. My man Kaye is still playing well and, like Clarke, is only 3 shots from 2nd place so has a chance if Purdy does indeed falter.


Page Update #4 (after 3rd round):
(Winner market)
Lay Ted Purdy 3 pts @ 2.16 --- NOT MATCHED, see above
Back Ernie Els 3 pts @ 7.8
Back Heath Slocum 1 pt @ 7.8 --- BOTH MATCHED
***
Back Ted Purdy 3 pts @ 5 --- MATCHED
Lay Ernie Els 10 pts @ 1.5
Lay Heath Slocum 5 pts @ 2
Those last three bets are to be left for the duration of the tournament and could easily not get matched. With those I'm hoping that Purdy comes back to the field and if he does win, it will only be after Els or Slocum have challenged and traded very low. I'm not doing much damage here to the current book if someone other than these three win, if it's someone I've laid then our losses are managable and if it's someone I've not then its taking little from what is currently won on them. Clearly, I'm taking on Purdy big-time now, and if he goes further clear and wins with none of those last three bets being matched, the loss will be around 21 pts. I'm still very hopeful that he'll find things infinitely more difficult than he did yesterday; surely he cannot keep sinking those longish putts and he has no experience of this sort of pressure.


Click the image below to see how the book looks after the lays from Update 3 were matched.
After clicking to view, you need to move then hover your cursor over the image in order for the little square (which you click to zoom in and read the image) to appear towards the bottom right hand corner.


Page Update #3 (at halfway):
(Winner market)
Lay Ernie Els 0.5 pt @ 8.8
Lay Ted Purdy 0.5 pt @ 42
Lay Stephen Ames 0.5 @ 34
Lay Mark O'Meara 0.5 pt @ 36
Lay Jonathan Kaye 0.5 pt @ 75 --- ALL MATCHED
Happy to take a little more out of Els at single figures as I can't see his game is anywhere near spot on, and will try and lay 3 others who I think are doubtful winners. Can't see any way that Purdy will emerge triumphant after this weekend (although stranger things have happened!) and even if Ames gets involved he is almost the ultimate non-winner. No particular reason, but I just don't fancy O'Meara. I know he won in Dubai but his performances in America this year have been very so-so. Our man Kaye's long game is looking good but maybe it was asking too much to bounce back from a very barren spell and win immediately. Will still keep him as a winner for the week but if I shall try and retrieve the stake at this stage. No one single player's odds stand out for me to support at this stage but I'm pleased with the way things have gone so far. I know Clarke and Haas are up there but we have plenty fighting our corner, even after this third set of lays.


Page Update #2:
(Winner market)
Lay Davis Love 1 pt @ 13
Lay Nick Price 0.75 pts @ 25
Lay Rod Pampling 0.5 pts @ 40 --- ALL MATCHED
It looks not the best time to go laying as all the players are well grouped up and therefore the prices are still high, even those in the top 20. But then the fact that there are so many in front of Love leads me to believe his price is low enough to take him on. He is tied 51st with 15 others, much closer to the cut line than the lead, and yet is just 4 pts higher in the betting than he was pre-tournament. OK, he loves the place, but he also loves Pebble Beach and that didn't stop him missing that cut this season after a poor opening round. Price is playing quite well at the moment but I do feel he's on the wane these days and to me is a most unlikely winner, and Pampling also struggles to turn some decent finishes into glory. Many times he'll start well only to fade away so I'll try and lay him at around a quarter his starting price. The backs were again extremely disappointing but I now hold real hopes for Kaye. It was a real pity that he dropped his only shot on the 18th but if he can get involved after today's a.m. round we'll have one of the class acts in the field firmly on our side. If I hadn't already backed him I'd be seriously thinking of going in at his current price on Betfair, a generous-looking 70.


Page Update #1:
(Winner market)
Lay Ernie Els 2 pts @ 8.8
Lay Scott Verplank 0.75 pts @ 27
Lay Darren Clarke 0.75 pts @ 32
Lay Bernhard Langer 0.5 pts @ 48
Lay Zach Johnson 0.5 pts @ 55
Lay Jay Haas 0.25 pts @ 75
Back Lee Westwood 0.25 pts @ 140
Back Jonathan Kaye 0.5 pts @ 150
Back Trevor Immelman 0.5 pts @ 150
Back Len Mattiace 0.25 pts @ 150
Back Chris Smith 0.25 pts @ 330 --- ALL MATCHED
Fancy this tournament more, for the moment, as an opportunity to back decent players at big prices in not the strongest field but I do have some doubts about some of the leading fancies so will lay a few to small liabilities to get the ball rolling. Els has to be devastated by Sunday's conclusion and will surely be a little deflated at kick off this week, Clarke also I should imagine. I don't think Clarke can putt well enough to win here either. Verplank had such a fantastic run of form going that, despite not disgracing himself, I'm sure he, and others, expected better than 26th and 29th at the Players and Masters respectively and I just think his run has come to an end for now. Despite his excellent Masters and good course form I'm more than happy to take Langer on at prices under 50/1 these days and, at the other end of the age scale, surely Zach Johnson isn't going to win two consecutive tournaments. Haas has done virtually nothing here his whole career and certainly not recently so that is enough for me. I fancy that Westwood's game is still underrated at the moment and odds of 140 are nicely appealing. I really feel that his long game is near to what it was when he was at his peak; just needs to consistently make the tiddlers he persists in missing. Kaye has far too much quality to be 140 in this field whatever his recent form; let's not forget class is permanent. In the recent Buick Invitational he was joint 5th favourite alongside Clarke ... there is over 110 pts between them this week. I just have this feeling about Immelman, that he may be spurred on by the recent success of 'young guns' like Adam Scott, Johnson and Paul Casey. He has the quality and maybe now will find the belief. Mattiace I think is finding some form after his pre-season surgery and is 12-10-38 here the last 3 years, while Smith is a real longshot to chance. Is finding some semblance of his old form back this season, and the more often he shoots decent rounds, the longer he'll be hanging around towards the weekend.