Spread Picks

Round One Trades

Sell Mark O'Meara over Kevin Sutherland 18H MB at 1 with Cantor Sports for 0.75 pts. (M/U 25, Profit -18 pts)

False favourite here in my opinion. Sutherland had an excellent Sawgrass, his last outing, and is backed to continue in that vein. O' Meara hasn't really done anything of note and is definitely in the home straight towards the Champions Tour. The following stats show a definite leaning towards Sutherland. Note, I had said Sutherland hadn't played here recently but he actually did in 02

Sutherland: 9/54/45/39/mc/9 (Course: MC 2002)

O'Meara: mc/mc/mc/46/56/27 (Course: 69th last year)

Buy Scott Verplank over Ian Poulter 18H MB at 6 with Sporting Index for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit -18.75 pts)

We are opposing Poulter in the States every week at the moment. This week he is paired with a player with a previous 11th place here and current run of nine Top 30 placings since Vegas in October. It is now 11 months since Verplank missed a cut in a non major event on the PGA Tour. Poulter's record in the States this year is mc/33/31. He is yet though to break 70 in 10 rounds this year on this tour, whereas Verplank has broken 70 four times (all 68's) in the three events Poulter has played (Bay Hill, Sawgrass, Masters)

Buy Ernie Els over Heath Slocum 18H MB at 9 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U -13, Profit -16.5 pts)

Els comes off of a 1 shot defeat in the Masters and the big question mark is what sort of psychological mark it will make. I think to an extent IG have built this in to their price as Els should be a few points higher favourite here. Slocum's record bar his win in Tucson is poor, 58th and a MC last two events is a big difference from 2nd in the Masters. Els is value here at 9.

Buy Jay Haas over Lee Westwood 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U 31, Profit 21 pts)

Haas's record this year is so far ahead of Westwood's that the quote can only be patriotic. 3 Top 10's in 04 in America compares favourably with one Top 10 for Westwood in S Africa. This is a home tie for Haas and that should have been factored into the quote which it hasn't. The price should be 5-8

Round Two Trades

Buy Scott Verplank over Ian Poulter at 6 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit 5.25 pts)

Buy Ernie Els over Heath Slocum at 9 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U -19, Profit -21 pts)

Sell Mark O' Meara over Kevin Sutherland at 2 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 25, Profit -17.25 pts)

Playing up the three losing bets from day 1 which has usually been a profitable ploy in the past. Els scored ok but caught Slocum on his best score for a while. Sutherland had a poor day but although +5, he isn't totally out of it as the cut line could be as high as +2 tonight. Verplank had his poorest score for some time and has a bit of work to do to make the cut but we will stick with him based on previous stats.

Sell Woody Austin over Peter Lonard at 4.5 (Spread Free) with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit -6.37 pts)

Lonard is, like Sutherland, needing to shoot low to make the cut but is probably a slightly better all round player than Austin so getting with a 4.5 start thanks to Spreadex's offer makes this a value bet.

Round Three Trades

Buy Scott Verplank over Scott Simpson at 9 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 0, Profit -6.75 Pts)

Verplank kept up his cuts made record and got us one of our few wins on the week in the process yesterday. Today he is under-priced against old man Simpson who is very much a part time player on tour this season.

Summary -65.63 pts

Poor week, but as i stated earlier, none of these bets are related to another and it is just a run of losses which on another week could be a run of winners. You can take it a step further though and acknowledge that bar the actual gambling result the scores of the two players in each individual bet are not related, eg: Verplank on Saturday was not out to beat Simpson, he was trying to shoot his way back into a tournament of 70+ players. We are always betting on 18H bets on the difference between the expected score of one player against the expected score of his playing partner. You then relate that to the prices on offer and trade as and when there is an acceptable difference in the two. That however, does not guarantee a winning return on a small sample (this week only 9 were worthy of a bet) but if you do your sums right it will pay in the long term which i fully expect it to do so.

PGA Tour

Tournament Trades

Sell Woody Austin FP at 35 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts
Austin should've won this tournament last year and that was the fourth time he'd had a top 20 finish here. Two of those were quite a few years ago but he's gone 19th and 2nd the last two and, adding in his current form, I'm pretty confident he can add another. I can forgive his three missed cuts here as 2 of them came in years where he barely made the weekend at all and in the other he showed little form. Last year his stats suggested he was one of the most improved players on tour and he's done well this season too. Almost supported him with an outright bet but am now very happy with this play.
Result:
Austin tied 32nd with 6 others, MU 35, No profit/loss

Buy Brad Faxon FP at 35 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts
Faxon has disappointed me since showing he had recovered from his surgery at the start of the season, and I'm happy to oppose him on a course where he's shown relatively little throughout his career. He has managed two top tens in the past but they were from numerous attempts (20 or more) and we'd have won money taking this bet at this course on almost three-quarters of those occasions. Has to be a very good chance the place just doesn't suit his wayward game and a poor finish looks infinitely more likely than a high one.
Result:
Faxon tied 69th, MU 50, Profit 7.5 pts

Final result: 1-0-1; Profit 7.5 pts

Faxon's performance went according to plan but Austin slightly disappointed me. If I had known he was going to be 4th in GIR for the week I would've expected a top twenty finish at least.