Tipster: Andy

Honda Classic

Tournament Trades

Sell Jesper Parnevik over Steve Flesch 72H MB at 0 using Sporting Index "My Matchmakers" service for 0.75 pts. (M/U 0, Profit 0)
To me, Flesch should be favourite by around 1.5 strokes. That may not seem like a case for a bet, arguing over a stroke or two, but in 72H Match betting there really isn't going to be many offers that are much better. Flesch's current form reads 16/3/16/67 for his last four events, Parnevik 7/4/78/27. Course form is 7/mc/mc for Flesch and 1/mc/67 for Parnevik. Although a case can be made for Jesper on both above examples i am happy to go with their one year scoring average which at 0.7 strokes per round is quite heavily in Flesch's favour.

Sell Briny Baird FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U 22.5, Profit 5.75pts)

Sell Stephen Ames FP at 34 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U 50, Profit -8pts)

Sell Fred Couples FP at 36 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U 27, Profit 4.5pts)

Sell Steve Flesch FP at 34.5 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U 32.5, Profit 1pt)
All these prices are a little too high. With Spreadex offering a bet at the mid point of the spread, the value is even better. In all cases I have these players at around 4 places lower bar Couples who I have at a full 7 pts lower. So all 4 bets provide a bit of value.

Sell Bob Estes FP at 37 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts (M/U 50, Profit -6.5pts)
As with the reasoning for recommending Estes 18 hole bet, but also more importantly on the price quoted here, this is excellent value. Estes averages a good 7 places less than this price over the long term which is another good reason to trade this price. (also available at Cantor)

Buy Stephen Ames over Aaron Baddeley 72H MB at 0.75ch with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U -12, Profit  -9.56pts)
Strange price from IG as Ames should be clear favourite. Ames has a current record of 5 Top 30 finishes from 6 events this year with every cut made. Baddeley was 2nd two weeks ago, but other than that he has one top 30 in his other 5 events where anyone could enter rather than an event open to those outside the very best.

Round One Trades

Buy Danny Ellis over Arjun Atwal 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts. (M/U 13, Profit 7.5pts)
This price is too low by a good 5 points. Ellis' record this year is 26/mc/30/mc/9. Atwal, though has a record this year that doesn't read as well (64/21/30/mc/64). Atwal is the first Indian born player to get a US Tour card and so far has not set the world alight on tour, that may come but at the moment he seems to be just a little out of his depth. Ellis is one of these players who has been around for a long time and admittedly has done nothing that makes him stand out from Atwal, except for his result last week. 9th is Ellis' best return since the NCR event in Florida in 2001. Note though that both these top 10's were in the state we are in this week and that fact coupled with the positives he will take from last week make him a sound buy at 3 on this match-up.

Buy Bob Estes over Chris Smith 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U -22, Profit -18.75pts)
Estes hasn't really got going this year but looking back over his long term record he does tend to do well when the tour comes to Florida. Smith got off to a flier last week but fell back into the pack just as quickly. Estes is a far better player on all known facts and is a little low at 3 so should be traded.

Buy Kenny Perry over Spike McRoy 18H MB at 9 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts. (M/U 25, Profit 8pts)
Based on price, 9 is just a little low for a player in the high reaches of the World Rankings against a journeyman. Form figures this year are two top 20's and a QF in the matchplay against a best place of 59th. In theory no contest but of course anything can happen in 18 hole betting but 9 is too low.


Round 2 Trades

Buy Robert Gamez over Joe Ogilvie 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.5pts (M/U -19, Profit -11pts)
Ogilvie won this match by 4 yesterday but at the price i would suggest we have a little bit of value and should play this for the minimum stakes.

Buy Danny Ellis over Arjun Atwal 18H MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.75pts (M/U 28, Profit 18.75pts.)
Playing up a winning bet from yesterday at the same price.

Adding:

Buy B Estes over C Smith 18H MB at 1.5 ch. with Spreadex for 0.75 pts (M/U 13, Profit 8.63pts)
Playing up a loser from yesterday with a further 1.5pts in our favour. Although there was a loss on the day i am prepared to suggest that Estes is still a better player by enough to recommend another bet.

Note: The Donald/Kuchar trade was an incorrect price issued by IG and they have therefore cancelled all bets that were placed at the price suggested.

Round 4 Trade

Sell Aaron Baddeley over Tom Pernice Jr. 18H MB at 2 with SportsSpread for 0.5 pts. (M/U -13, Profit 7.5pts)
This price just seems out by a little bit. The price should be 1.5ch so to get a full 2 pt start seems value.

Summary (Weekly Record )

7.82 pts profit

Acceptable profit on this tour on what was quite a hard week to find good 18H bets. The FP's were average although none of them kicked on Sunday to make the M/U's that bit better.

Tipster: Shaker

Honda Classic

Tournament Trades

Buy David Toms FP at 24 with Spreadex & Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts (M/U , Profit = pts)
Sorry to be opposing one of Stanley's outright selections but if you don't agree, you don't agree! I don't think three good rounds entitles him to be this low quite yet and, alongside his poor Florida/Bermuda greens record, I think the price deserves opposing. His putting last week wasn't as fantastic as his outright finishing position might've led you to believe and I'm not sure he'll repeat this week.

Buy Charles Howell FP at 35 with IG Sport for 0.75 pts (M/U 50, Profit = 11.25pts)
All the reasons for opposing him are on the Matchups page.

Buy Bernhard Langer/Luke Donald 72H MB at 1.5 with Cantor Sport for 1 pt (M/U -10, Loss = 11.5pts)
The difference here in the experience of the two players of Bermuda greens, their vastly different levels of form in Florida and the contrasting levels of their all-round short games makes this a smashing price in my opinion.

Round One Trades

Sell Charles Howell/Fred Couples 18H MB at 0 with Spreadex & Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts (M/U -22, Profit = 11pts)
Sorry to oppose the beanpole again but I fancy Couples, back in Florida, to play well.

Buy Mark Calcavecchia/Mark O'Meara 18H MB at 3 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts (Calc WD ... M/U -25, Loss = 14pts)
Buy Fred Funk/Mark O'Meara 18H MB at 1.5 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts (M/U -16, Loss = 8.75pts)
Really fancy another good week from both Calc and Funk and it'd be a fantastic effort from O'Meara if he can come up with anything like his Dubai form in the first round here. Let's be honest, his US form hasn't been up to scratch for a long time now. Would be happy to buy Calc even at 4.

Buy Brad Faxon/John Rollins 18H MB at 4 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts (M/U 28, Profit = 12pts)
Fully expecting a good show from Faxon this week and am hoping that Rollins' desperate start to the season continues. Despite Rollins taking Tiger all the way in the Matchplay, there was no real sign that he'd start playing well. Conversely, Faxon's 3 under par in losing was a fine effort and very possibly he is now ready after his pre-season operation.

Buy Steve Flesch/Hal Sutton 18H MB at 6 with Cantor Sport for 0.5 pts (M/U 22, Profit = 8pts)
Flesch has had a super start to the season and Sutton's form is quite simply nowhere near his level. I'd still be buying this even if the price was 7.

Round One Trades: 3-2; Profit 8.25 pts.


Round 2 Trades

At the prices I have to go in on yesterday's three winners:

Buy Steve Flesch/Hal Sutton 18H MB at 7 with all firms except Cantor (not priced up yet) for 0.5 pts (M/U 13, Profit = 3pts)
Sutton excelled himself, Flesch continued his good 2004 form - I make him much more likely to get near repeating today.

Buy Brad Faxon/John Rollins 18H MB at 5 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts  (M/U 28, Profit = 11.5pts)
A big factor: Faxon did indeed bounce back to form as predicted. With Rollins continuing in terrible form I think this price should've gone up by at least three, not just one.

Sell Charles Howell/Fred Couples 18H MB at 0 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts (M/U -13, Profit = 6.5pts)
How they still make Howell favourite is beyond me, his putting on these greens was predictably rubbish yesterday and it will be a big surprise if he were to suddenly learn how to tackle them by today! Couples putted excellently.

Also:

Buy Kenny Perry/Spike McRoy 18H MB at 10 with all firms except Cantor (not priced up yet) for 0.5 pts (M/U -37, Loss = 23.5pts)
McRoy didn't really do anything well yesterday, least of all his putting. Perry did everything more than adequately and looks a fine bet to continue the good work today and, echoing what Andy said yesterday, this is an in-form top player against an out-of-form journeyman.

Buy Fredrik Jacobson/J.J. Henry 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index, Spreadex & IG Sport for 0.5 pts (M/U -13, Loss = 10pts)
Jacobson's game was excellent yesterday, in particular his iron play and scrambling, and we can really expect his putting will be better today as that is generally his strength. Henry was poor around the greens and I think the short-game challenges this course throws up are too much for him.

Round Two Trades: 3-2; Loss 12.5 pts
Week so far: 6-4; Loss 4.25 pts


Round 3 Trade

Buy Justin Rose/D.J. Brigman 18H MB at 7 with Spreadex for 0.5 pts (M/U 16, Profit = 4.5pts)
Rose is playing steadily and could still make a challenge for the top ten. There are three Europeans right up there at the moment and it could be that the short-game set-up of this course suits the imagination they possess more of than most Americans. Brigman scraped his tour card last year, he was far from an outstanding Nationwide Tour player, and seems to be playing well above himself so far this week. But already this season he has shot 82 in round 3 at Pebble, 74 in rd. 4 in Tucson and 77 in rd. 2 at Doral last week and it'll be a major surprise to me if he doesn't go badly backwards from his current position.

Round 4 Trade

Buy Mark Hensby/Zach Johnson 18H MB at 1.5 with IG Sport for 0.5 pts (same bet available at Spreadex) (M/U -13, Loss = 7.25pts)
Johnson is new to the tour this year and Hensby, while having a card once before, is really being competitive for the first time so we're talking about two new boys here really. Reasons for taking one over the other are that Johnson should find it very difficult to follow a Saturday 66 and also that Hensby has shown much more than his opponent this year. He has secured two top tens this year with decent 4th rounds while Johnson hasn't broken the top 20 yet, and Johnson looks to me to be more susceptible to the very high round; already he's had 5 of between 75 and 79 this year. Hensby looks to be the better player and is also more consistent.


Summary (Weekly Record 9-6, Loss = 5.75pts)

After the major annoyances of supporting a golfer (Calc) incapable of completing his round and also being on the wrong end of probably Kenny Perry's worst round of his long career, I suppose this end result isn't all bad. But it's frustrating that 9 of 15 calls were correct and there are only losses to show for it.